While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
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Mullin committee vote could hinge on John Fetterman as Rand Paul vows to oppose
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China pursuing non-violent unification with Taiwan, unlikely to invade in 2027: US intel
Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Colorado school staffer accused of sexually abusing 13-year-old student, now on the run
State Department to ask for bonds of up to $15,000 for visa applications from a dozen more countries
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Millionaire developer found dead in ritzy beach home; bizarrely dressed suspect arrested after standoff
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Mullin committee vote could hinge on John Fetterman as Rand Paul vows to oppose
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China pursuing non-violent unification with Taiwan, unlikely to invade in 2027: US intel
This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
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State Department to ask for bonds of up to $15,000 for visa applications from a dozen more countries
Former counterterrorism chief Joe Kent under FBI investigation for alleged classified leaks
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Millionaire developer found dead in ritzy beach home; bizarrely dressed suspect arrested after standoff
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Watch: Senate Dem Turns to Conspiracy Theories When Markwayne Mullin Refuses to Play Her Games During Confirmation Hearing
MS Now Axes Part of ‘Morning Joe’ in Significant Shake-Up
Mullin committee vote could hinge on John Fetterman as Rand Paul vows to oppose
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China pursuing non-violent unification with Taiwan, unlikely to invade in 2027: US intel
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Colorado school staffer accused of sexually abusing 13-year-old student, now on the run
State Department to ask for bonds of up to $15,000 for visa applications from a dozen more countries
Former counterterrorism chief Joe Kent under FBI investigation for alleged classified leaks
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BREAKING: Sen. Kennedy Just Moved to Pass the SAVE America Act Using a Brilliant Legislative Trick That Only Requires 51 Votes
Immigration judge orders deportation of NYC Council employee after ICE arrest, city leaders push back
Millionaire developer found dead in ritzy beach home; bizarrely dressed suspect arrested after standoff
GOP overperforms in Virginia special election, fueling early momentum talk in blue-trending state
Watch: Senate Dem Turns to Conspiracy Theories When Markwayne Mullin Refuses to Play Her Games During Confirmation Hearing
MS Now Axes Part of ‘Morning Joe’ in Significant Shake-Up
Mullin committee vote could hinge on John Fetterman as Rand Paul vows to oppose
How Markwayne Mullin would lead DHS differently than Kristi Noem
GOP governors, AGs back Trump SAVE Act push, warn system gives ‘undue influence’ to states with illegal aliens
Strikes may set Iran back — but likely won’t end nuclear program, UN watchdog chief warns
China pursuing non-violent unification with Taiwan, unlikely to invade in 2027: US intel
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
