While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
Jeffries’ reported meeting with Kushner about possible Trump cooperation draws left-wing backlash
Iran puts out propaganda video tracking Barron Trump’s location, offering $10 million for his assassination
Mamdani jumps into Democratic Party feud, alleging boss seeking to subvert ‘will of voters’
Iowa focus group’s warning to Republicans: Farm tariff pain could cost you the Senate
Pilot’s bravery on display in steering crippled plane clear of tragedy in dramatic water landing
Trump Admin Invokes FDR and Churchill in Declaring ‘Economic D-Day’
Arizona police shooting suspect arrested, another remains at large after killing 1, wounding fiancee
Incredible Footage: Police Roll Up on Blood-Streaked Man in Middle of Road, Learn His F/A-18 Just Cratered Into Mountainside, But He’s OK
Birth tourism scams draw sweeping crackdown as visa revocations climb
American Automaker Recalls Over 1 Million Cars for Possible Seat Belt Issue
US kills two ‘narco-terrorists’ in strike 2 months since last announced anti-‘narco-trafficking’ attack
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Jeffries’ reported meeting with Kushner about possible Trump cooperation draws left-wing backlash
Iran puts out propaganda video tracking Barron Trump’s location, offering $10 million for his assassination
Mamdani jumps into Democratic Party feud, alleging boss seeking to subvert ‘will of voters’
Iowa focus group’s warning to Republicans: Farm tariff pain could cost you the Senate
Pilot’s bravery on display in steering crippled plane clear of tragedy in dramatic water landing
Trump Admin Invokes FDR and Churchill in Declaring ‘Economic D-Day’
Arizona police shooting suspect arrested, another remains at large after killing 1, wounding fiancee
Incredible Footage: Police Roll Up on Blood-Streaked Man in Middle of Road, Learn His F/A-18 Just Cratered Into Mountainside, But He’s OK
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American Automaker Recalls Over 1 Million Cars for Possible Seat Belt Issue
US kills two ‘narco-terrorists’ in strike 2 months since last announced anti-‘narco-trafficking’ attack
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Thune-aligned groups unleash historic war chest to defend Senate majority: ‘Winning message’
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
Jeffries’ reported meeting with Kushner about possible Trump cooperation draws left-wing backlash
Iran puts out propaganda video tracking Barron Trump’s location, offering $10 million for his assassination
Mamdani jumps into Democratic Party feud, alleging boss seeking to subvert ‘will of voters’
Iowa focus group’s warning to Republicans: Farm tariff pain could cost you the Senate
Pilot’s bravery on display in steering crippled plane clear of tragedy in dramatic water landing
Trump Admin Invokes FDR and Churchill in Declaring ‘Economic D-Day’
Arizona police shooting suspect arrested, another remains at large after killing 1, wounding fiancee
Incredible Footage: Police Roll Up on Blood-Streaked Man in Middle of Road, Learn His F/A-18 Just Cratered Into Mountainside, But He’s OK
Birth tourism scams draw sweeping crackdown as visa revocations climb
American Automaker Recalls Over 1 Million Cars for Possible Seat Belt Issue
US kills two ‘narco-terrorists’ in strike 2 months since last announced anti-‘narco-trafficking’ attack
Nigeria May Lose Major US Aid Package Over Christian Persecution
Thune-aligned groups unleash historic war chest to defend Senate majority: ‘Winning message’
AI’s massive appetite for power, water ignites fight in high-stakes Texas Senate race
Linda McMahon vows crackdown on teachers sexually harassing students: ‘Must end’
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Jeffries’ reported meeting with Kushner about possible Trump cooperation draws left-wing backlash
Iran puts out propaganda video tracking Barron Trump’s location, offering $10 million for his assassination
Mamdani jumps into Democratic Party feud, alleging boss seeking to subvert ‘will of voters’
Iowa focus group’s warning to Republicans: Farm tariff pain could cost you the Senate
Pilot’s bravery on display in steering crippled plane clear of tragedy in dramatic water landing
Trump Admin Invokes FDR and Churchill in Declaring ‘Economic D-Day’
Arizona police shooting suspect arrested, another remains at large after killing 1, wounding fiancee
Incredible Footage: Police Roll Up on Blood-Streaked Man in Middle of Road, Learn His F/A-18 Just Cratered Into Mountainside, But He’s OK
Birth tourism scams draw sweeping crackdown as visa revocations climb
American Automaker Recalls Over 1 Million Cars for Possible Seat Belt Issue
US kills two ‘narco-terrorists’ in strike 2 months since last announced anti-‘narco-trafficking’ attack
Nigeria May Lose Major US Aid Package Over Christian Persecution
Thune-aligned groups unleash historic war chest to defend Senate majority: ‘Winning message’
AI’s massive appetite for power, water ignites fight in high-stakes Texas Senate race
Linda McMahon vows crackdown on teachers sexually harassing students: ‘Must end’
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
