While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
Socialists take fight west, target Colorado in latest bid to oust Democratic Party establishment
Fetterman unleashes on ‘dirtbag’ wing of Dems after far-left victories: ‘Orgy of socialism’
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Ex-NFL Superstar Chris Johnson, 40, Diagnosed with ALS, Can No Longer Speak
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Emotion and feelings: How Democratic Socialists’ congressional insurgency could come back to bite them
Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Socialists take fight west, target Colorado in latest bid to oust Democratic Party establishment
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Emotion and feelings: How Democratic Socialists’ congressional insurgency could come back to bite them
This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
Socialists take fight west, target Colorado in latest bid to oust Democratic Party establishment
Fetterman unleashes on ‘dirtbag’ wing of Dems after far-left victories: ‘Orgy of socialism’
A California dog rescue hid a grim secret: more than 100 dogs buried beneath it
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Trump taps acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling for permanent role pending Senate confirmation
Clarence Thomas Irks MSNOW Reporter by Laughing Off Questions at Capitol
San Francisco archdiocese agrees to $395M settlement with 530 clergy abuse survivors
Ex-NFL Superstar Chris Johnson, 40, Diagnosed with ALS, Can No Longer Speak
Alaska Supreme Court allows second Dan Sullivan to appear on ballot
Watch: Radical Leftist Scott Weiner Roasted – Deranged Pride Activists Encircle, Attack Him for Not Being Woke Enough
US and Iran Reach New Agreement After Days of Trading Strikes
Emotion and feelings: How Democratic Socialists’ congressional insurgency could come back to bite them
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Socialists take fight west, target Colorado in latest bid to oust Democratic Party establishment
Fetterman unleashes on ‘dirtbag’ wing of Dems after far-left victories: ‘Orgy of socialism’
A California dog rescue hid a grim secret: more than 100 dogs buried beneath it
DuckDuckGo’s AI Assistant Claims Trump and Vance Have Died from Rabies
CBS crew attacked by multiple men near Chicago museum, suspects arrested: police
That Thing That ‘Never Happens’ Happened Again – NYC Clerk Caught Fixing Election with Oversize Garbage Can Filled with Ballots – Court Docs
Helicopter reports drone encounter near JFK hours after JetBlue’s possible drone strike
Trump taps acting Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling for permanent role pending Senate confirmation
Clarence Thomas Irks MSNOW Reporter by Laughing Off Questions at Capitol
San Francisco archdiocese agrees to $395M settlement with 530 clergy abuse survivors
Ex-NFL Superstar Chris Johnson, 40, Diagnosed with ALS, Can No Longer Speak
Alaska Supreme Court allows second Dan Sullivan to appear on ballot
Watch: Radical Leftist Scott Weiner Roasted – Deranged Pride Activists Encircle, Attack Him for Not Being Woke Enough
US and Iran Reach New Agreement After Days of Trading Strikes
Emotion and feelings: How Democratic Socialists’ congressional insurgency could come back to bite them
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
