While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
Hasan Piker cheerleads progressives as 80-year-old senator wins six more years
Progressive push hits wall against conservative Democrat in deep-blue district
Washington homeowner hears mysterious banging, calls 911 before police find growling bobcat at top of stairs
Breaking: Intimidation Arrest Made Outside Courthouse of Lindsay Clancy Trial Setting Stage for Potential Mistrial
Tyler Robinson to face trial in Charlie Kirk assassination as judge keeps death penalty on table
Top Democrat survives double-barreled challenge as party’s Israel divide hits home
Colin Kaepernick Reemerges and Tries to Cash in on Playing the Victim
House Democrat survives left-flank challenge as Bernie volunteer mounts insurgent bid
Florida Orders Removal of Flock Cameras from All State Highways
Ed Markey survives Massachusetts Senate primary challenge from Seth Moulton
Nancy Grace Fires Back at Lindsay Clancy’s Attorney After He Calls Her Out by Name: ‘The Law Is Clear’
Trump Wants Congress to Save Hollywood from Going Bust – His Heart Might Be in The Right Place, But He’s Dead Wrong
DOJ sues Kansas school district over ‘secret gender transitions’ in first-of-its-kind lawsuit
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Hasan Piker cheerleads progressives as 80-year-old senator wins six more years
Progressive push hits wall against conservative Democrat in deep-blue district
Washington homeowner hears mysterious banging, calls 911 before police find growling bobcat at top of stairs
Breaking: Intimidation Arrest Made Outside Courthouse of Lindsay Clancy Trial Setting Stage for Potential Mistrial
Tyler Robinson to face trial in Charlie Kirk assassination as judge keeps death penalty on table
Top Democrat survives double-barreled challenge as party’s Israel divide hits home
Colin Kaepernick Reemerges and Tries to Cash in on Playing the Victim
House Democrat survives left-flank challenge as Bernie volunteer mounts insurgent bid
Florida Orders Removal of Flock Cameras from All State Highways
Ed Markey survives Massachusetts Senate primary challenge from Seth Moulton
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
Hasan Piker cheerleads progressives as 80-year-old senator wins six more years
Progressive push hits wall against conservative Democrat in deep-blue district
Washington homeowner hears mysterious banging, calls 911 before police find growling bobcat at top of stairs
Breaking: Intimidation Arrest Made Outside Courthouse of Lindsay Clancy Trial Setting Stage for Potential Mistrial
Tyler Robinson to face trial in Charlie Kirk assassination as judge keeps death penalty on table
Top Democrat survives double-barreled challenge as party’s Israel divide hits home
Colin Kaepernick Reemerges and Tries to Cash in on Playing the Victim
House Democrat survives left-flank challenge as Bernie volunteer mounts insurgent bid
Florida Orders Removal of Flock Cameras from All State Highways
Ed Markey survives Massachusetts Senate primary challenge from Seth Moulton
Nancy Grace Fires Back at Lindsay Clancy’s Attorney After He Calls Her Out by Name: ‘The Law Is Clear’
Trump Wants Congress to Save Hollywood from Going Bust – His Heart Might Be in The Right Place, But He’s Dead Wrong
DOJ sues Kansas school district over ‘secret gender transitions’ in first-of-its-kind lawsuit
Former president-turned-amateur artist George W. Bush debuting new paintings for 9/11 remembrance
Canadian Voters Double Down on Hostility Toward Trump, Hand Liberal Party Special Election Sweep
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Hasan Piker cheerleads progressives as 80-year-old senator wins six more years
Progressive push hits wall against conservative Democrat in deep-blue district
Washington homeowner hears mysterious banging, calls 911 before police find growling bobcat at top of stairs
Breaking: Intimidation Arrest Made Outside Courthouse of Lindsay Clancy Trial Setting Stage for Potential Mistrial
Tyler Robinson to face trial in Charlie Kirk assassination as judge keeps death penalty on table
Top Democrat survives double-barreled challenge as party’s Israel divide hits home
Colin Kaepernick Reemerges and Tries to Cash in on Playing the Victim
House Democrat survives left-flank challenge as Bernie volunteer mounts insurgent bid
Florida Orders Removal of Flock Cameras from All State Highways
Ed Markey survives Massachusetts Senate primary challenge from Seth Moulton
Nancy Grace Fires Back at Lindsay Clancy’s Attorney After He Calls Her Out by Name: ‘The Law Is Clear’
Trump Wants Congress to Save Hollywood from Going Bust – His Heart Might Be in The Right Place, But He’s Dead Wrong
DOJ sues Kansas school district over ‘secret gender transitions’ in first-of-its-kind lawsuit
Former president-turned-amateur artist George W. Bush debuting new paintings for 9/11 remembrance
Canadian Voters Double Down on Hostility Toward Trump, Hand Liberal Party Special Election Sweep
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
