While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
The parties have flipped on support for Israel
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
The parties have flipped on support for Israel
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
The parties have flipped on support for Israel
The only band that ever mattered was … the Monkees
Department of War Releases New Batch of UFO Files, Including Data on ‘Black Triangle’ Incidents from This Year
Marriage Certificate from 1997 May Confirm the Real Identity of ‘Ilhan Omar’ and Her Marriage to Her Brother
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Trump officials warn decades-long decline among American men could carry national security consequences
Katie Britt quietly invests in GOP candidates — and her own political future
A New England city was transformed by refugees – now it faces a youth gun violence crisis: ‘Fear for my life’
FBI arrests Georgia man accused of throwing Molotov cocktail at Atlanta ICE facility
Notorious ‘Tan Mom’ claims ICE agents mistook her for illegal immigrant because of extreme tan
Incredible Video: Heroic Dad Fights Off Gang of Carjackers While Protecting Daughter, Shoots 1 Dead
Knicks Tricked Employees with Fake Championship Ring-Fitting Message, Forced Clickers Into Cybersecurity Courses
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WATCH: Mamdani Teaches Illegals How to Avoid Capture and Evade ICE in New Spanish-Language Video
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Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
The parties have flipped on support for Israel
The only band that ever mattered was … the Monkees
Department of War Releases New Batch of UFO Files, Including Data on ‘Black Triangle’ Incidents from This Year
Marriage Certificate from 1997 May Confirm the Real Identity of ‘Ilhan Omar’ and Her Marriage to Her Brother
Canada is feeling the pain from Trump’s tariffs — but the trade fight didn’t start overnight
Trump officials warn decades-long decline among American men could carry national security consequences
Katie Britt quietly invests in GOP candidates — and her own political future
A New England city was transformed by refugees – now it faces a youth gun violence crisis: ‘Fear for my life’
FBI arrests Georgia man accused of throwing Molotov cocktail at Atlanta ICE facility
Notorious ‘Tan Mom’ claims ICE agents mistook her for illegal immigrant because of extreme tan
Incredible Video: Heroic Dad Fights Off Gang of Carjackers While Protecting Daughter, Shoots 1 Dead
Knicks Tricked Employees with Fake Championship Ring-Fitting Message, Forced Clickers Into Cybersecurity Courses
Democrats Screech About ICE Injuring a US Citizen – Then Video of the Start of the Conflict Emerges
WATCH: Mamdani Teaches Illegals How to Avoid Capture and Evade ICE in New Spanish-Language Video
Tyler Robinson hearing ends without trial date set, prompting fiery plea from Erika Kirk’s lawyer
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
