While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
CNN, After Bleeding Millions of Viewers, Rolls Out Documentary Targeting Patriotic Christians
Trump orders complete withdrawal of all troops from Syria within two months: report
US-Iran conflict: All sides brace for war as ‘nothing burger’ nuclear negotiations prove fruitless
Watch: Trump Posts Loving Tribute to Rush Limbaugh on Fifth Anniversary of His Death, Says ‘There Will Never Be Another Rush Limbaugh’
Missile defense race shifts to space as experts say real battle is in first minutes after launch
FBI Director Patel says investigators have found antifa funding sources
Border protocols automatically triggered in search for Nancy Guthrie, retired agent says
FBI joins probe in murder of Christian teacher shot in Ohio home as ‘American Idol’ husband, children slept
Report: Legacy Media ‘Journalist’ Caught Giving Marco Rubio the Finger During Press Conference
Obama and Susan Rice Reportedly ‘Broke Down and Cried’ After Trump’s 2016 Win
Mamdani plan pours millions into ‘racial equity’ offices and six-figure diversity jobs, cuts 5,000 NYPD jobs
Netflix faces consumer lawsuit as Warner Bros. merger scrutiny mounts
Bernie Sanders heads to California to rally support for the billionaire wealth tax
Duffy gives Illinois 30-day ultimatum after audit finds 1 in 5 noncitizen truck licenses issued illegally
Nigel Farage appoints JD Vance’s ‘British sherpa’ as head of policy for Reform UK
Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
CNN, After Bleeding Millions of Viewers, Rolls Out Documentary Targeting Patriotic Christians
Trump orders complete withdrawal of all troops from Syria within two months: report
US-Iran conflict: All sides brace for war as ‘nothing burger’ nuclear negotiations prove fruitless
Watch: Trump Posts Loving Tribute to Rush Limbaugh on Fifth Anniversary of His Death, Says ‘There Will Never Be Another Rush Limbaugh’
Missile defense race shifts to space as experts say real battle is in first minutes after launch
FBI Director Patel says investigators have found antifa funding sources
Border protocols automatically triggered in search for Nancy Guthrie, retired agent says
FBI joins probe in murder of Christian teacher shot in Ohio home as ‘American Idol’ husband, children slept
Report: Legacy Media ‘Journalist’ Caught Giving Marco Rubio the Finger During Press Conference
Obama and Susan Rice Reportedly ‘Broke Down and Cried’ After Trump’s 2016 Win
Mamdani plan pours millions into ‘racial equity’ offices and six-figure diversity jobs, cuts 5,000 NYPD jobs
Netflix faces consumer lawsuit as Warner Bros. merger scrutiny mounts
Bernie Sanders heads to California to rally support for the billionaire wealth tax
Duffy gives Illinois 30-day ultimatum after audit finds 1 in 5 noncitizen truck licenses issued illegally
Nigel Farage appoints JD Vance’s ‘British sherpa’ as head of policy for Reform UK
Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
CNN, After Bleeding Millions of Viewers, Rolls Out Documentary Targeting Patriotic Christians
Trump orders complete withdrawal of all troops from Syria within two months: report
US-Iran conflict: All sides brace for war as ‘nothing burger’ nuclear negotiations prove fruitless
Watch: Trump Posts Loving Tribute to Rush Limbaugh on Fifth Anniversary of His Death, Says ‘There Will Never Be Another Rush Limbaugh’
Missile defense race shifts to space as experts say real battle is in first minutes after launch
FBI Director Patel says investigators have found antifa funding sources
Border protocols automatically triggered in search for Nancy Guthrie, retired agent says
FBI joins probe in murder of Christian teacher shot in Ohio home as ‘American Idol’ husband, children slept
Report: Legacy Media ‘Journalist’ Caught Giving Marco Rubio the Finger During Press Conference
Obama and Susan Rice Reportedly ‘Broke Down and Cried’ After Trump’s 2016 Win
Mamdani plan pours millions into ‘racial equity’ offices and six-figure diversity jobs, cuts 5,000 NYPD jobs
Netflix faces consumer lawsuit as Warner Bros. merger scrutiny mounts
Bernie Sanders heads to California to rally support for the billionaire wealth tax
Duffy gives Illinois 30-day ultimatum after audit finds 1 in 5 noncitizen truck licenses issued illegally
Nigel Farage appoints JD Vance’s ‘British sherpa’ as head of policy for Reform UK
This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
CNN, After Bleeding Millions of Viewers, Rolls Out Documentary Targeting Patriotic Christians
Trump orders complete withdrawal of all troops from Syria within two months: report
US-Iran conflict: All sides brace for war as ‘nothing burger’ nuclear negotiations prove fruitless
Watch: Trump Posts Loving Tribute to Rush Limbaugh on Fifth Anniversary of His Death, Says ‘There Will Never Be Another Rush Limbaugh’
Missile defense race shifts to space as experts say real battle is in first minutes after launch
FBI Director Patel says investigators have found antifa funding sources
Border protocols automatically triggered in search for Nancy Guthrie, retired agent says
FBI joins probe in murder of Christian teacher shot in Ohio home as ‘American Idol’ husband, children slept
Report: Legacy Media ‘Journalist’ Caught Giving Marco Rubio the Finger During Press Conference
Obama and Susan Rice Reportedly ‘Broke Down and Cried’ After Trump’s 2016 Win
Mamdani plan pours millions into ‘racial equity’ offices and six-figure diversity jobs, cuts 5,000 NYPD jobs
Netflix faces consumer lawsuit as Warner Bros. merger scrutiny mounts
Bernie Sanders heads to California to rally support for the billionaire wealth tax
Duffy gives Illinois 30-day ultimatum after audit finds 1 in 5 noncitizen truck licenses issued illegally
Nigel Farage appoints JD Vance’s ‘British sherpa’ as head of policy for Reform UK
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
CNN, After Bleeding Millions of Viewers, Rolls Out Documentary Targeting Patriotic Christians
Trump orders complete withdrawal of all troops from Syria within two months: report
US-Iran conflict: All sides brace for war as ‘nothing burger’ nuclear negotiations prove fruitless
Watch: Trump Posts Loving Tribute to Rush Limbaugh on Fifth Anniversary of His Death, Says ‘There Will Never Be Another Rush Limbaugh’
Missile defense race shifts to space as experts say real battle is in first minutes after launch
FBI Director Patel says investigators have found antifa funding sources
Border protocols automatically triggered in search for Nancy Guthrie, retired agent says
FBI joins probe in murder of Christian teacher shot in Ohio home as ‘American Idol’ husband, children slept
Report: Legacy Media ‘Journalist’ Caught Giving Marco Rubio the Finger During Press Conference
Obama and Susan Rice Reportedly ‘Broke Down and Cried’ After Trump’s 2016 Win
Mamdani plan pours millions into ‘racial equity’ offices and six-figure diversity jobs, cuts 5,000 NYPD jobs
Netflix faces consumer lawsuit as Warner Bros. merger scrutiny mounts
Bernie Sanders heads to California to rally support for the billionaire wealth tax
Duffy gives Illinois 30-day ultimatum after audit finds 1 in 5 noncitizen truck licenses issued illegally
Nigel Farage appoints JD Vance’s ‘British sherpa’ as head of policy for Reform UK
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
