While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
Trump envoy warns China’s power move at sea is threat ‘we cannot afford to ignore’
Socialists set sights on Taylor Swift after ‘tacky’ NYC wedding sparks left-wing backlash
Trump ordered to pay $5.8 million to E. Jean Carroll as judge rejects request to delay payout
DOJ records reveal possible classified security lapses inside Jack Smith’s office during Trump prosecution
Authorities searching for K2 cargo plane crew that disappeared near Pakistan
Bombshell: Platner Girlfriend Says He Would Secretly Remove Condoms During Sex When She Wasn’t on Birth Control
On Same Day as Platner Bombshell, Another Dem Sex Scandal Explodes – Candidate Allegedly Shoved Hand Down Victim’s Trousers, Fondled Him, and Worse
Top Dem admits Trump ‘wisely’ made critical demand to NATO allies: ‘Love and hate relationship’
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DOJ Puts Election Officials in All 50 States on Notice: Prevent Noncitizen Voting or Else
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Platner campaign putting ‘thumb on scale’ to influence possible replacement, Maine Dem alleges
Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Trump envoy warns China’s power move at sea is threat ‘we cannot afford to ignore’
Socialists set sights on Taylor Swift after ‘tacky’ NYC wedding sparks left-wing backlash
Trump ordered to pay $5.8 million to E. Jean Carroll as judge rejects request to delay payout
DOJ records reveal possible classified security lapses inside Jack Smith’s office during Trump prosecution
Authorities searching for K2 cargo plane crew that disappeared near Pakistan
Bombshell: Platner Girlfriend Says He Would Secretly Remove Condoms During Sex When She Wasn’t on Birth Control
On Same Day as Platner Bombshell, Another Dem Sex Scandal Explodes – Candidate Allegedly Shoved Hand Down Victim’s Trousers, Fondled Him, and Worse
Top Dem admits Trump ‘wisely’ made critical demand to NATO allies: ‘Love and hate relationship’
Leftist California group pushes to add ‘Black English’ to schools’ multilingual education program
Officers in Maryland respond to reported assault, discover guns and unusual group of animals
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Shipping through Strait of Hormuz declared dangerous with Iran ceasefire in jeopardy
Platner campaign putting ‘thumb on scale’ to influence possible replacement, Maine Dem alleges
This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
Trump envoy warns China’s power move at sea is threat ‘we cannot afford to ignore’
Socialists set sights on Taylor Swift after ‘tacky’ NYC wedding sparks left-wing backlash
Trump ordered to pay $5.8 million to E. Jean Carroll as judge rejects request to delay payout
DOJ records reveal possible classified security lapses inside Jack Smith’s office during Trump prosecution
Authorities searching for K2 cargo plane crew that disappeared near Pakistan
Bombshell: Platner Girlfriend Says He Would Secretly Remove Condoms During Sex When She Wasn’t on Birth Control
On Same Day as Platner Bombshell, Another Dem Sex Scandal Explodes – Candidate Allegedly Shoved Hand Down Victim’s Trousers, Fondled Him, and Worse
Top Dem admits Trump ‘wisely’ made critical demand to NATO allies: ‘Love and hate relationship’
Leftist California group pushes to add ‘Black English’ to schools’ multilingual education program
Officers in Maryland respond to reported assault, discover guns and unusual group of animals
Watch: US Conducts Massive Strikes, Hits 80 Targets After Iran Attacks Ships in Strait, This as Trump Says Ceasefire Is Dead
DOJ Puts Election Officials in All 50 States on Notice: Prevent Noncitizen Voting or Else
Erika Kirk comforts a stranger in tears during hearing for husband’s accused assassin Tyler Robinson
Shipping through Strait of Hormuz declared dangerous with Iran ceasefire in jeopardy
Platner campaign putting ‘thumb on scale’ to influence possible replacement, Maine Dem alleges
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Trump envoy warns China’s power move at sea is threat ‘we cannot afford to ignore’
Socialists set sights on Taylor Swift after ‘tacky’ NYC wedding sparks left-wing backlash
Trump ordered to pay $5.8 million to E. Jean Carroll as judge rejects request to delay payout
DOJ records reveal possible classified security lapses inside Jack Smith’s office during Trump prosecution
Authorities searching for K2 cargo plane crew that disappeared near Pakistan
Bombshell: Platner Girlfriend Says He Would Secretly Remove Condoms During Sex When She Wasn’t on Birth Control
On Same Day as Platner Bombshell, Another Dem Sex Scandal Explodes – Candidate Allegedly Shoved Hand Down Victim’s Trousers, Fondled Him, and Worse
Top Dem admits Trump ‘wisely’ made critical demand to NATO allies: ‘Love and hate relationship’
Leftist California group pushes to add ‘Black English’ to schools’ multilingual education program
Officers in Maryland respond to reported assault, discover guns and unusual group of animals
Watch: US Conducts Massive Strikes, Hits 80 Targets After Iran Attacks Ships in Strait, This as Trump Says Ceasefire Is Dead
DOJ Puts Election Officials in All 50 States on Notice: Prevent Noncitizen Voting or Else
Erika Kirk comforts a stranger in tears during hearing for husband’s accused assassin Tyler Robinson
Shipping through Strait of Hormuz declared dangerous with Iran ceasefire in jeopardy
Platner campaign putting ‘thumb on scale’ to influence possible replacement, Maine Dem alleges
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
