While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
Will Ferrell’s ‘The Hawk’ is unfunny and uninspired
Vincent Pastore, 1946-2026
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
Will Ferrell’s ‘The Hawk’ is unfunny and uninspired
Vincent Pastore, 1946-2026
Mexican national faces federal charges after CBP finds $238K in fentanyl inside electric moped
NYPD cop found guilty of chokehold in first conviction since restraint tactic banned after George Floyd death
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White House exposes ‘Transshipment Scam’ costing US up to $26B, points finger at China
Live bullet found aboard United flight forces passengers off plane for security sweep at Denver airport
Woke Colorado School District Teaches 5-Year-Olds Sexual Anatomy Using Images So Bad We Refuse to Post Them – By Age 7, It Gets Far Worse
Marco Rubio gets 68 new jobs in epic White House birthday gift inspired by viral meme
Watch: Bystander Appears to Capture New B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Flying Low Over Wichita
HHS warns Texas hospitals against denying life-saving care to newborn with disability
Exclusive: Oklahoma Police Chief Cancels City’s Flock Safety Contract After Citizens Raise Privacy Concerns
Gun rights groups capitalize after judge reverses decades-old restrictions: ‘Monumental’
Federal appeals court restores Texas mail ballot ID requirements in major election integrity ruling
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Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Will Ferrell’s ‘The Hawk’ is unfunny and uninspired
Vincent Pastore, 1946-2026
Mexican national faces federal charges after CBP finds $238K in fentanyl inside electric moped
NYPD cop found guilty of chokehold in first conviction since restraint tactic banned after George Floyd death
Detransitioners reveal how doctors pushed them toward life-altering treatment as teens
White House exposes ‘Transshipment Scam’ costing US up to $26B, points finger at China
Live bullet found aboard United flight forces passengers off plane for security sweep at Denver airport
Woke Colorado School District Teaches 5-Year-Olds Sexual Anatomy Using Images So Bad We Refuse to Post Them – By Age 7, It Gets Far Worse
Marco Rubio gets 68 new jobs in epic White House birthday gift inspired by viral meme
Watch: Bystander Appears to Capture New B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Flying Low Over Wichita
HHS warns Texas hospitals against denying life-saving care to newborn with disability
Exclusive: Oklahoma Police Chief Cancels City’s Flock Safety Contract After Citizens Raise Privacy Concerns
Gun rights groups capitalize after judge reverses decades-old restrictions: ‘Monumental’
Federal appeals court restores Texas mail ballot ID requirements in major election integrity ruling
Legal Expert: Don Lemon’s Legal Battle Could Have Devastating Unintended Consequences for Abortion Clinics
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
