While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
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Hackers target refrigerators at French supermarkets, overheating them and causing fires
Ilhan Omar says she will ‘not be silenced’ following raid on Washington home
Biden-appointed judge with history of fiery Trump clashes erupts at DOJ: ‘You’ve lost all credibility!’
AIPAC takes another shot at el Sayed and hands Rogers a political gamble in Michigan Senate race
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Federal agents conduct predawn search of Ilhan Omar’s home in Washington
Watch: Talarico Said He Went to Urgent Care, Now Says He Went to His Doctor 200 Miles Away – What Do We Know?
Big GOP Midterm News: Polling in 9 Key Senate Races Shows GOP Candidates Leading
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Ilhan Omar Tries to Talk Tough in Response to DHS Raid, But One Glaring Detail Betrays Her Cowardice
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Hackers target refrigerators at French supermarkets, overheating them and causing fires
Ilhan Omar says she will ‘not be silenced’ following raid on Washington home
Biden-appointed judge with history of fiery Trump clashes erupts at DOJ: ‘You’ve lost all credibility!’
AIPAC takes another shot at el Sayed and hands Rogers a political gamble in Michigan Senate race
Republican lawmakers break with Trump on diesel deal with Russia
Federal agents conduct predawn search of Ilhan Omar’s home in Washington
Watch: Talarico Said He Went to Urgent Care, Now Says He Went to His Doctor 200 Miles Away – What Do We Know?
Big GOP Midterm News: Polling in 9 Key Senate Races Shows GOP Candidates Leading
Democrats see new chances to flip red states — but a $400M GOP spending advantage could derail their plans
SC Dem Senate candidate claims she will stand up to her party as Graham ties her to ‘socialist Democrats’
Pennsylvania gunman who killed 8 was grandfather who seemed normal, victim relatives say
Immigration enforcement officials search Ilhan Omar’s home in pre-dawn raid
Trump’s backyard is quietly transforming into ‘Silicon Valley South’ as wealthy Americans flock in
This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
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Hackers target refrigerators at French supermarkets, overheating them and causing fires
Ilhan Omar says she will ‘not be silenced’ following raid on Washington home
Biden-appointed judge with history of fiery Trump clashes erupts at DOJ: ‘You’ve lost all credibility!’
AIPAC takes another shot at el Sayed and hands Rogers a political gamble in Michigan Senate race
Republican lawmakers break with Trump on diesel deal with Russia
Federal agents conduct predawn search of Ilhan Omar’s home in Washington
Watch: Talarico Said He Went to Urgent Care, Now Says He Went to His Doctor 200 Miles Away – What Do We Know?
Big GOP Midterm News: Polling in 9 Key Senate Races Shows GOP Candidates Leading
Democrats see new chances to flip red states — but a $400M GOP spending advantage could derail their plans
SC Dem Senate candidate claims she will stand up to her party as Graham ties her to ‘socialist Democrats’
Pennsylvania gunman who killed 8 was grandfather who seemed normal, victim relatives say
Immigration enforcement officials search Ilhan Omar’s home in pre-dawn raid
Trump’s backyard is quietly transforming into ‘Silicon Valley South’ as wealthy Americans flock in
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Ilhan Omar Tries to Talk Tough in Response to DHS Raid, But One Glaring Detail Betrays Her Cowardice
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Hackers target refrigerators at French supermarkets, overheating them and causing fires
Ilhan Omar says she will ‘not be silenced’ following raid on Washington home
Biden-appointed judge with history of fiery Trump clashes erupts at DOJ: ‘You’ve lost all credibility!’
AIPAC takes another shot at el Sayed and hands Rogers a political gamble in Michigan Senate race
Republican lawmakers break with Trump on diesel deal with Russia
Federal agents conduct predawn search of Ilhan Omar’s home in Washington
Watch: Talarico Said He Went to Urgent Care, Now Says He Went to His Doctor 200 Miles Away – What Do We Know?
Big GOP Midterm News: Polling in 9 Key Senate Races Shows GOP Candidates Leading
Democrats see new chances to flip red states — but a $400M GOP spending advantage could derail their plans
SC Dem Senate candidate claims she will stand up to her party as Graham ties her to ‘socialist Democrats’
Pennsylvania gunman who killed 8 was grandfather who seemed normal, victim relatives say
Immigration enforcement officials search Ilhan Omar’s home in pre-dawn raid
Trump’s backyard is quietly transforming into ‘Silicon Valley South’ as wealthy Americans flock in
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
