While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
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Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Dem Blamed Republicans for Hurting His Constituents with Shutdown: Then He Actually Faced Some Media Pushback
Bari Weiss’ CBS News Unveils Major Cuts Amid Industry Shakeup
Ignored ICE detainers ‘put lives at risk,’ DHS says, targeting Newsom, Pritzker, Healey
IDF claims it struck Iranian senior officials’ headquarters in airstrikes
Trump’s Iran strategy showcases ‘doctrine of unpredictability’ amid strike threats and sudden pause
Park Police officer shot in Southeast DC suffers non life-threatening injuries as probe unfolds
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS secretary with support from 2 Democrats
Mullin confirmed as DHS chief as lawmakers near solution on shutdown standoff
Duffy, Hochul, Mamdani come together after LaGuardia plane crash: ‘Politics fade away’
Top House Dem dismisses probe into Jasmine Crockett’s security guard killed in SWAT standoff
Air Traffic Controller Caught on Tape Following Airplane Crash at LaGuardia: ‘I Messed Up’
NJ man crawls through window, attempts to sexually assault girl before being subdued by resident: police
Political traffic signals: waiting for the light to change on the Hill
Supreme Court May Be Poised to Strike Down Acceptance of Mail-In Ballots After Election Day, Following Oral Argument Comments
Sheriff shrugs off missteps in Nancy Guthrie case, calls for captor to ‘let her go’ as family pleads for help
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
