New York state Assemblyman and socialist Zohran Mamdani trailed former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by less than 9 points after the final round of ranked choice voting in a recent New York City Democratic primary poll.
The poll, an Emerson-PIX11-Hill survey, is the closest result for Mamdani, or any other candidate, against front-runner Cuomo. It’s also a continuation of Mamdani’s polling momentum, as this survey followed a poll in which he trailed Cuomo by 12 points in the final round.
The survey comes days after the Justice Department announced it is investigating Cuomo over allegations that he lied in a congressional hearing about decisions he made during the COVID-19 pandemic. His campaign then released an ad that said, “If Donald Trump doesn’t want Andrew Cuomo as mayor, you do.”
In the poll, Cuomo beats Mamdani 54.4% to 45.6% in the 10th round of ranked choice voting. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander was eliminated in the ninth round with 22.2% support.
“Cuomo has led in the polls since early 2025, but Mamdani has surged, gaining 23 points and winning second-choice votes nearly 2-to-1, cutting Cuomo’s ranked-choice lead from 12 points to 9 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani’s momentum.”
“Cuomo’s strongest support comes from Black voters (74%), voters over 50 (66%), and women (58% to 42%),” Kimball added. “Mamdani leads among voters under 50 with 61%, and holds an edge among white voters (57% to 43%) and college-educated voters (58% to 42%).”
New York-based Democratic strategist Max Burns told the Washington Examiner that while the Mamdani campaign may love the new polling, he’s waiting for more numbers to confirm Cuomo’s support is declining.
“Mamdani’s polling speaks to the really skilled campaign he’s running, where he’s managed to consolidate the lefty Democrats while still focusing his core message on kitchen table issues that concern every New Yorker,” Burns said.
“Mamdani will love the new polling, but I would wait until we get a second set of numbers that will either confirm Cuomo’s slide or reveal it to be a blip,” he added. “If we see one or two more polls where Cuomo’s averages are declining, I think that sets off a huge crisis of confidence in his campaign that really hurts him at a terrible moment.”
There’s also a large question whether Cuomo’s loyal supporters could shift from him to Mamdani with less than a month to go to the primary. Burns said Mamdani is nearing his ceiling as a leftist candidate in the city. “If he wants to win this, he’s going to need to chip away Cuomo supporters who have proven to be very solid so far,” he said.
Mamdani is a very different candidate from Cuomo. He’s campaigned on free public bus fares, free child care, and city-run grocery stores. Mamdani says he’d fund it with a tax hike on businesses and wealthy New Yorkers. Cuomo is the familiar governor with recent speed bumps who has focused more on conquering crime in the city.
Burns says he is “skeptical” that Cuomo voters will move to Mamdani. But if they do, and Mamdani wins the June 24 primary, chaos could ensue.
Cuomo has a ballot line set up and will likely run as an independent. Incumbent Democratic Mayor Eric Adams is already running as an independent, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is waiting as well. The Emerson poll addressed this scenario absent Cuomo, showing that 35% of voters would support Mamdani in a hypothetical general election, 16% Sliwa, 15% Adams, and 6% for independent Jim Walden.
Adding Cuomo to that mix could split the Democratic coalition even further, possibly opening things up for Sliwa, founder of the nonprofit Guardian Angels crime prevention group. Sliwa captured 27.76% support in the 2022 race against Adams and will run on the Republican and the independent Protect Animals line.
“I’ve spent over 40 years on the front lines of this city protecting our streets, subways, and parks while politicians made things worse,” Sliwa told the Washington Examiner.
ANDREW CUOMO TRIES TO SPIN DOJ INVESTIGATION
“I’m a proven leader running to be the people’s mayor, and I’m ready to take on the insiders and restore the city we love. It doesn’t matter who is running against me because New Yorkers know I’m the best choice to turn this city around,” he added.
The Cuomo campaign declined to comment on the poll when contacted by the Washington Examiner. The Washington Examiner reached out to Mamdani’s campaign but did not receive a response.
