Citizens in Portugal, Romania, and Poland all cast ballots over the weekend. Two of the elections ended, and there was a major upset in the countries’ balance of power. The third is ongoing and has shown a much tighter margin between candidates than expected.
Nationalism remains the defining matter of European politics as these elections have presented referendums on the populist movements gaining traction in the Old World.
Portugal
Since the dawn of democracy in Portugal, there has been a race between the center-right Social Democrats and the center-left Socialist Party. But years of political instability are making that arrangement increasingly difficult.
A right-wing populist party known as Chega shocked the establishment on Sunday after bringing home more than 22% of the vote, a level of support that showed the nation is no longer operating on a de facto two-party system.
Democratic Alliance, the Social Democrats’ governing coalition that was forced into a snap election two months ago, retained its shaky grasp on power with 89 out of 230 seats in the National Assembly.
But the Socialist Party’s support collapsed as Chega ascended. Both captured 58 seats in the Parliament, a watershed moment for the grassroots populist movement formed less than a decade ago.
Andre Ventura, Chega’s founder and leader, saw the outcome as vindication for his war against the establishment parties.
“We’ve done what no other party has ever achieved in Portugal. We can safely declare in front of all the country today that bipartisanship in Portugal is over,” Ventura said, celebrating the upset.
Chega, which translates to “enough,” came on the scene in 2019 with bombastic overtures to traditional values and patriotism.
Bearing slogans such as “God, country, family, and work” and “Save Portugal,” the party positioned itself as the premier political vehicle opposing progressive social changes such as mass migration and gender ideology.
Chega’s rise came amid widespread disillusionment with Portugal’s politics.
This latest snap election was called after the Democratic Alliance lost a confidence vote in March. It was the third election in just three years.
Prime Minister Luis Montenegro expressed contentment with the results as an indication that “the people want this government and they don’t want any other,” but acknowledged that all parties have to be able to speak to each other and put the national interest first.
With overseas ballots still to be counted and four seats undecided, Chega could overtake the Socialist Party and become the official opposition.
“There are moments in life during which God says, ‘Just stop a little bit,’” Ventura told his supporters after the upset. “This time, I am not going to listen. I am not going to stop until I become the prime minister of Portugal.”
Poland
Poland held the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, exposing a much narrower race than previously thought and sparking a sense of urgency on all sides ahead of the final vote.
Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, a progressive candidate backed by the Civic Platform party and Prime Minister Donald Tusk, narrowly won the first vote with 31.36%.
Law and Justice party candidate Karol Nawrocki, a right-wing populist, finished just behind him at 29.54%.
It was a much tighter first round than expected. Polls heading into election day showed Trzaskowski leading Nawrocki by up to 6%.
TRUMP SEES ALLIES IN SUPPRESSED RIGHT-WING POPULISTS OF EUROPE
Slawomir Mentzen, a fresh-faced libertarian who chairs the New Hope party, took third place with 14.8%. Grzegorz Braun, an ultratraditionalist who heads the Confederation of the Polish Crown, took home 6.34% and placed fourth. Various other parties also stood candidates but failed to break 5%.
Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will now face off in the second round of voting to determine the nation’s next leader. Their mission until then is to scoop up voters who supported now-disqualified first-round candidates.
Less than two weeks remain for the candidates to get back out on the campaign trail and adjust their calculus to win the June 1 election.
Romania
Romanian nationalists suffered a brutal defeat after Budapest Mayor Nicusor Dan clinched the presidency despite initial expectations for a right-wing cakewalk.
Dan won the election on Sunday with 53.60% support. His opponent was George Simion, chairman of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians, who received 46.40%.
It was a stunning upset after the first round of the presidential election saw Simion clinch 40.5% in first place. Dan, who secured 20.89% in the first round, was a distant second.
Most notably, Dan’s campaign was built on a cooperative, distinctly pro-West sentiment. He is a strong believer in NATO and the European Union. He is also firmly pro-Ukraine — a significant difference from his opponents.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky celebrated Dan’s win, remarking that the new president will be a “reliable partner” for the war-torn country.
“Dear Romanians, you can count on Ukraine as a good neighbor and partner. We can overcome any challenge if we are united and strong,” Zelensky said. “I look forward to further developing the strategic partnership between our friendly nations for the sake of their stability, security, and prosperity.”
Simion initially pushed back against Dan’s victory, declaring himself the new president of Romania on social media.
He later walked back that claim and conceded to Dan, but offered a rallying cry for political allies around the world.
“We will continue our fight for freedom and our great values along with other patriots, sovereignists, and conservatives all over the world,” Simion said in a video address. “We may have lost a battle, but we will certainly not lose the war.”
It’s been a tumultuous period in Romanian politics since last year’s presidential election was voided by the high court over allegations of Russian tampering in favor of right-wing populist Calin Georgescu.
Romania’s security agency released a report alleging that a foreign actor deployed paid influencers to boost Georgescu’s profile and portray the politician in a positive light. The report also cited behavior by pro-Georgescu accounts that indicated the use of bots.
The agency speculated that it could be the work of foreign intelligence but did not produce evidence that could confirm such an operation.
GERMANY BANS ‘REICH CITIZEN’ GROUP AND ARRESTS ITS LEADERS
Conservatives in the rest of Europe and the United States expressed outrage at the election annulment, including Vice President JD Vance.
“You can believe it’s wrong for Russia to buy social media advertisements to influence your elections. We certainly do,” Vance said at a February address in Munich. “You can condemn it on the world stage, even. But if your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with.”
