CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected

HOST: We were talking about some of the models, whether it’s from the imperial college guy in England or the University of Washington. Thank god some of these numbers are falling short of some of these catastrophic numbers. Tell me about the dynamic of the modeling and how it helps and influences decision making and then, when the reality comes in, how does the decision making transform?

DR. ROBERT REDFIELD: I think it’s really important. First, models are only as good as their assumptions. Obviously, there was a lot unknown about this virus. The ability to actively make a lot of assumptions was much wider than if this was an Influenza B outbreak. Second thing, I will say from a public health perspective, to me, the real value of models is to have a model and then try to understand — if I invest resources here, what does that do to the model? If I invest in intervention strategies here, what does that do to the model? It’s a way of beta testing how you’re going to respond and what it does to the different models. And models should never be used to assume that we have a number. You saw those numbers are quite staggering. You’ve got 200,000 to 2 million Americans are losing their lives before the fall. That’s a pretty staggering number.

HOST: Are throwing those kind of numbers out actually helpful because what they do is scare the hell out of everyone to social distance? Is that the purpose?

---

El-Sayed under fire online after taking aim at Usha Vance, female Trump aide in weekend social media posts

---

Karoline Leavitt reveals next role after leaving White House press secretary post

---

Alaska Republicans scramble to educate voters on suspected Dem plant as ‘ballot fatigue’ threatens race

---

Virginia Dem admits system ‘failure’ after illegal immigrant accused in landlord killing escapes to Tajikistan

---

Ford Adds Thousands of Jobs in United States as Move Away from China Continues

---

Report: Meghan and Harry’s Brazen Attempts – and Embarrassing Rejections – at Becoming US Political Operators

---

Nevada brush fire spreads to 10,500 acres as governor declares state of emergency

---

Christian Club Files Lawsuit After School District Blocks Volunteer Mentors

---

White House revs up ‘iconic’ Freedom 250 race as IndyCars prepare to unleash American muscle on DC streets

---

African Witchcraft, Blackmail, and American Boys: How Nigerians 6,000 Miles Away Are Killing US Teens

---

Minnesota Woman Sues Chipotle for Massive Sum Over Burrito Bowl

---

Florida couple allegedly held four children in tractor-trailer cab for nearly seven years

---

‘Barbaric’ abortion provision fuels Christian push to crack down on Dem governor

---

Nearly One-Third of Gen Z Steers Clear of Car Insurance, Survey Finds

---

Mixed support from black voters threatens el Sayed’s Michigan Senate hopes

---

DR. REDFIELD: I think different people may look at it in different ways in terms of transparency. CDC had models early on. We didn’t really publicize the models. We used them internally to understand deviation strategies. I think part of the importance of getting the American public’s attention that these models did, we really need the American public to be fully engaged now with great rigor and vigilance on the social distancing. As you pointed out, those models that were done, they assume only about 50 percent of the American public would pay attention to the recommendations. In fact, what we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart. And I think that’s the direct consequence of why you’re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models.

Story cited here.

See also  A Bayh-gone era for Indiana Democrats?

Share this article:

Facebook

Twitter