The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by White House Coronavirus Task Force officials appears to dramatically overstate the hospitalization of patients with coronavirus in the United States when the model’s projections are compared to actual data, a Breitbart News analysis finds.
Breitbart News compared projections of the number of regular hospital beds needed to treat coronavirus patients made in the Friday, April 3 iteration of the IHME model for nine states to the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations (a number that includes current regular bed hospitalizations, current ICU hospitalizations, previously hospitalized and released patients, and previously hospitalized and deceased patients) reported by the respective health departments in those states as of Thursday, April 2.
The results showed that the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model ranged from nine percent in Tennessee to 47 percent in Florida.
Even in New York State, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model was only 37 percent.
Former Capitol Police officer running for Congress in different district than failed 2024 bid
Federal judge grills DOJ lawyers over censure of Democratic senator
Video: Joy Behar Compares Cities Church to Dachau Concentration Camp Where Jews Were Frozen Alive – Single Most Evil Thing Ever Said on ‘The View’
Patriots QB Drake Maye Quotes Bible at Super Bowl Media Day, Hopes to Lead Others to Jesus
Vote ‘no’ but take the dough: Senate Democrats claim credit for bill they opposed
Newsom’s PAC takes cash from firm promising to win state contracts for clients
Judge rules federal agents must limit tear gas at protests near Portland ICE building
Trump admin sued by New York, New Jersey over Hudson River tunnel funding freeze: ‘See you in court’
Girl, 12, dangles from ski chairlift in California before crashing to ground in terrifying video
White House approves Medal of Honor for fallen Army Staff Sgt Michael Ollis after years-long push
Lawmakers probe National FFA over Chinese Communist Party ties and DEI programs
Mamdani calls on DA to not prosecute mentally ill man shot by police during knife attack
Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Tim Burchett Drop SAVE Act Demands After Meeting with Trump
Trump reacts to NBC host Savannah Guthrie’s mother Nancy’s mysterious abduction
Op-Ed: Trump is a Performer – Let Him Perform
These numbers, however, actually understate the degree to which the IHME model overestimates the number of hospital beds currently needed for coronavirus patients because the numerator–cumulative hospitalizations–includes data well in addition to the actual number of current regular hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients, since it also includes current ICU hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients as well as previously hospitalized coronavirus patients either released or deceased.
Data on cumulative hospitalizations in currently reported by most states, while some provide more detailed information.
The Department of Public Health in Minnesota, for instance, reported as of April 2 that 46 out of the 156 reported cumulative hospitalizations in the state for coronavirus are patients currently in regular hospital beds, while 40 are patients in ICU hospital beds and 70 are formerly hospitalized patients who have been released or are deceased.
Here is a breakdown of the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations reported by these nine states as of April 2, as compared to the number of regular hospital beds projected for coronavirus patients in those states on April 2 by the IHME model:
Colorado: Cumulative hospitalizations of 710 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 3,141 = 23 percent.
Ohio: Cumulative hospitalizations of 802 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,436 = 33 percent
Tennessee: Cumulative hospitalizations of 263 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,741 = 9 percent
Texas: Cumulative hospitalizations of 196 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 1,968 = 10 percent
New York: Cumulative hospitalizations of 20,817 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 56,183 = 37 percent
Florida: Cumulative hospitalizations of 1,215 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,612 = 47 percent
Georgia: Cumulative hospitalizations of 1,158 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 3,089 = 37 percent
Iowa: Cumulative hospitalizations of 138 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 384 = 36 percent
Minnesota: Cumulative hospitalizations of 156 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 823 = 19 percent
Former Capitol Police officer running for Congress in different district than failed 2024 bid
Federal judge grills DOJ lawyers over censure of Democratic senator
Video: Joy Behar Compares Cities Church to Dachau Concentration Camp Where Jews Were Frozen Alive – Single Most Evil Thing Ever Said on ‘The View’
Patriots QB Drake Maye Quotes Bible at Super Bowl Media Day, Hopes to Lead Others to Jesus
Vote ‘no’ but take the dough: Senate Democrats claim credit for bill they opposed
Newsom’s PAC takes cash from firm promising to win state contracts for clients
Judge rules federal agents must limit tear gas at protests near Portland ICE building
Trump admin sued by New York, New Jersey over Hudson River tunnel funding freeze: ‘See you in court’
Girl, 12, dangles from ski chairlift in California before crashing to ground in terrifying video
White House approves Medal of Honor for fallen Army Staff Sgt Michael Ollis after years-long push
Lawmakers probe National FFA over Chinese Communist Party ties and DEI programs
Mamdani calls on DA to not prosecute mentally ill man shot by police during knife attack
Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Tim Burchett Drop SAVE Act Demands After Meeting with Trump
Trump reacts to NBC host Savannah Guthrie’s mother Nancy’s mysterious abduction
Op-Ed: Trump is a Performer – Let Him Perform
Notably, the IHME model’s current projections of COVID-19 deaths as of April 2 is in line with the actual number of reported deaths on that date.
Breitbart News provided this data to the media spokesperson for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Friday and asked if they could explained why the IHME model’s projections of regular hospital beds needed is so badly off the mark from actual beds required for COVID-19 patients up to April 2 but has not yet received a response.
Story cited here.
