The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by White House Coronavirus Task Force officials appears to dramatically overstate the hospitalization of patients with coronavirus in the United States when the model’s projections are compared to actual data, a Breitbart News analysis finds.
Breitbart News compared projections of the number of regular hospital beds needed to treat coronavirus patients made in the Friday, April 3 iteration of the IHME model for nine states to the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations (a number that includes current regular bed hospitalizations, current ICU hospitalizations, previously hospitalized and released patients, and previously hospitalized and deceased patients) reported by the respective health departments in those states as of Thursday, April 2.
The results showed that the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model ranged from nine percent in Tennessee to 47 percent in Florida.
Even in New York State, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model was only 37 percent.
Somali Fraud Is Only a Drop in the Bucket Compared to This Indian Fraud Scheme
Midterm countdown: Democrats lead early, but GOP sees a path through the map
The ballot box showdowns this month that you need to watch
Massive fire destroys University of South Florida laboratory building: ‘Total loss’
War with Iran Poised to Erupt Again After Weeks of Ceasefire If Peace Talks Fail
Car Enthusiast Jerry Seinfeld Blasts EVs: ‘It’s a Big, Stupid Virtue Signal’
Breaking: Iran Peace Proposal Aimed at Ending War Under Trump’s Review – ‘I’m Looking at It’
Student charged after 5 stabbed at high school in violent altercation over vape pen
Activist remains perched atop DC bridge protesting Iran war, AI development: ‘The spirit moves me’
Abortion pill fight heads to Supreme Court as manufacturer warns of ‘chaos’ after ruling
Trump Talks ‘Taking Over’ Cuba ‘Almost Immediately… on the Way Back from Iran’
Bad Timing: California Gov. Gavin Newsom Ratchets Up Feud With Joe Rogan as Republicans Lead the Field to Replace Him
1 dead after car slams into lavish Portland social club with possible explosives, FBI investigating
Eric Swalwell, Man Who Quit Congress In Part Due to Improper Contact With Staffers on Snapchat, Still Contacting Staffers on Snapchat
Missing man’s body found in abandoned cemetery crypt in case tied to biker gang
These numbers, however, actually understate the degree to which the IHME model overestimates the number of hospital beds currently needed for coronavirus patients because the numerator–cumulative hospitalizations–includes data well in addition to the actual number of current regular hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients, since it also includes current ICU hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients as well as previously hospitalized coronavirus patients either released or deceased.
Data on cumulative hospitalizations in currently reported by most states, while some provide more detailed information.
The Department of Public Health in Minnesota, for instance, reported as of April 2 that 46 out of the 156 reported cumulative hospitalizations in the state for coronavirus are patients currently in regular hospital beds, while 40 are patients in ICU hospital beds and 70 are formerly hospitalized patients who have been released or are deceased.
Here is a breakdown of the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations reported by these nine states as of April 2, as compared to the number of regular hospital beds projected for coronavirus patients in those states on April 2 by the IHME model:
Colorado: Cumulative hospitalizations of 710 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 3,141 = 23 percent.
Ohio: Cumulative hospitalizations of 802 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,436 = 33 percent
Tennessee: Cumulative hospitalizations of 263 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,741 = 9 percent
Texas: Cumulative hospitalizations of 196 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 1,968 = 10 percent
New York: Cumulative hospitalizations of 20,817 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 56,183 = 37 percent
Florida: Cumulative hospitalizations of 1,215 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,612 = 47 percent
Georgia: Cumulative hospitalizations of 1,158 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 3,089 = 37 percent
Iowa: Cumulative hospitalizations of 138 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 384 = 36 percent
Minnesota: Cumulative hospitalizations of 156 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 823 = 19 percent
Somali Fraud Is Only a Drop in the Bucket Compared to This Indian Fraud Scheme
Midterm countdown: Democrats lead early, but GOP sees a path through the map
The ballot box showdowns this month that you need to watch
Massive fire destroys University of South Florida laboratory building: ‘Total loss’
War with Iran Poised to Erupt Again After Weeks of Ceasefire If Peace Talks Fail
Car Enthusiast Jerry Seinfeld Blasts EVs: ‘It’s a Big, Stupid Virtue Signal’
Breaking: Iran Peace Proposal Aimed at Ending War Under Trump’s Review – ‘I’m Looking at It’
Student charged after 5 stabbed at high school in violent altercation over vape pen
Activist remains perched atop DC bridge protesting Iran war, AI development: ‘The spirit moves me’
Abortion pill fight heads to Supreme Court as manufacturer warns of ‘chaos’ after ruling
Trump Talks ‘Taking Over’ Cuba ‘Almost Immediately… on the Way Back from Iran’
Bad Timing: California Gov. Gavin Newsom Ratchets Up Feud With Joe Rogan as Republicans Lead the Field to Replace Him
1 dead after car slams into lavish Portland social club with possible explosives, FBI investigating
Eric Swalwell, Man Who Quit Congress In Part Due to Improper Contact With Staffers on Snapchat, Still Contacting Staffers on Snapchat
Missing man’s body found in abandoned cemetery crypt in case tied to biker gang
Notably, the IHME model’s current projections of COVID-19 deaths as of April 2 is in line with the actual number of reported deaths on that date.
Breitbart News provided this data to the media spokesperson for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Friday and asked if they could explained why the IHME model’s projections of regular hospital beds needed is so badly off the mark from actual beds required for COVID-19 patients up to April 2 but has not yet received a response.
Story cited here.
