The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by White House Coronavirus Task Force officials appears to dramatically overstate the hospitalization of patients with coronavirus in the United States when the model’s projections are compared to actual data, a Breitbart News analysis finds.
Breitbart News compared projections of the number of regular hospital beds needed to treat coronavirus patients made in the Friday, April 3 iteration of the IHME model for nine states to the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations (a number that includes current regular bed hospitalizations, current ICU hospitalizations, previously hospitalized and released patients, and previously hospitalized and deceased patients) reported by the respective health departments in those states as of Thursday, April 2.
The results showed that the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model ranged from nine percent in Tennessee to 47 percent in Florida.
Even in New York State, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations as a percentage of regular hospital beds needed projected by the IHME model was only 37 percent.
Post-Maduro, pressure builds on Mexico over Cuba’s new oil lifeline
Trump’s immigration crackdown in the spotlight ahead of midterms as fatal MN shootings ignite backlash
Mainstream Democrats direct funds to anti-ICE protests carried out by ‘communist’ groups in Minneapolis
Anti-ICE agitators arrested outside Minnesota hotel as police declare unlawful assembly: ‘No longer peaceful’
Report: Trump Sending In the Great Tom Homan to Personally Take Command in Minneapolis and Reassigning Bovino After Shooting
Shirtless Florida man who jumped through Taco Bell window, robbed it with ‘large rock’ sentenced to 4 years
Sewage spill sends E coli surging in the Potomac River near DC
Feds charge 87 individuals in massive ATM ‘jackpotting’ operation linked to Tren de Aragua gang
Mamdani’s early moves as mayor clash with affordability pledge: ‘Ripple effects are significant’
Trump admin wins court victory freeing ICE agents from Minnesota protest restrictions
DOJ could soon ask Supreme Court to consider legal battle over Trump-appointed US attorneys
Trump has ‘very good’ call with Minneapolis Mayor Frey, announces border czar Homan meeting
ALERT: US Holocaust Museum Responds After Tim Walz Invokes Anne Frank’s Name, Calls Exploiting Holocaust ‘Deeply Offensive’
GOP senator demands DHS immigration chiefs testify after fatal shootings in Minnesota
Conservative Party defections to Reform UK continue with former home secretary
These numbers, however, actually understate the degree to which the IHME model overestimates the number of hospital beds currently needed for coronavirus patients because the numerator–cumulative hospitalizations–includes data well in addition to the actual number of current regular hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients, since it also includes current ICU hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients as well as previously hospitalized coronavirus patients either released or deceased.
Data on cumulative hospitalizations in currently reported by most states, while some provide more detailed information.
The Department of Public Health in Minnesota, for instance, reported as of April 2 that 46 out of the 156 reported cumulative hospitalizations in the state for coronavirus are patients currently in regular hospital beds, while 40 are patients in ICU hospital beds and 70 are formerly hospitalized patients who have been released or are deceased.
Here is a breakdown of the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations reported by these nine states as of April 2, as compared to the number of regular hospital beds projected for coronavirus patients in those states on April 2 by the IHME model:
Colorado: Cumulative hospitalizations of 710 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 3,141 = 23 percent.
Ohio: Cumulative hospitalizations of 802 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,436 = 33 percent
Tennessee: Cumulative hospitalizations of 263 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,741 = 9 percent
Texas: Cumulative hospitalizations of 196 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 1,968 = 10 percent
New York: Cumulative hospitalizations of 20,817 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 56,183 = 37 percent
Florida: Cumulative hospitalizations of 1,215 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 2,612 = 47 percent
Georgia: Cumulative hospitalizations of 1,158 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 3,089 = 37 percent
Iowa: Cumulative hospitalizations of 138 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 384 = 36 percent
Minnesota: Cumulative hospitalizations of 156 divided by regular hospital bed projections of 823 = 19 percent
Post-Maduro, pressure builds on Mexico over Cuba’s new oil lifeline
Trump’s immigration crackdown in the spotlight ahead of midterms as fatal MN shootings ignite backlash
Mainstream Democrats direct funds to anti-ICE protests carried out by ‘communist’ groups in Minneapolis
Anti-ICE agitators arrested outside Minnesota hotel as police declare unlawful assembly: ‘No longer peaceful’
Report: Trump Sending In the Great Tom Homan to Personally Take Command in Minneapolis and Reassigning Bovino After Shooting
Shirtless Florida man who jumped through Taco Bell window, robbed it with ‘large rock’ sentenced to 4 years
Sewage spill sends E coli surging in the Potomac River near DC
Feds charge 87 individuals in massive ATM ‘jackpotting’ operation linked to Tren de Aragua gang
Mamdani’s early moves as mayor clash with affordability pledge: ‘Ripple effects are significant’
Trump admin wins court victory freeing ICE agents from Minnesota protest restrictions
DOJ could soon ask Supreme Court to consider legal battle over Trump-appointed US attorneys
Trump has ‘very good’ call with Minneapolis Mayor Frey, announces border czar Homan meeting
ALERT: US Holocaust Museum Responds After Tim Walz Invokes Anne Frank’s Name, Calls Exploiting Holocaust ‘Deeply Offensive’
GOP senator demands DHS immigration chiefs testify after fatal shootings in Minnesota
Conservative Party defections to Reform UK continue with former home secretary
Notably, the IHME model’s current projections of COVID-19 deaths as of April 2 is in line with the actual number of reported deaths on that date.
Breitbart News provided this data to the media spokesperson for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Friday and asked if they could explained why the IHME model’s projections of regular hospital beds needed is so badly off the mark from actual beds required for COVID-19 patients up to April 2 but has not yet received a response.
Story cited here.
