Donald Trump likely won’t carry Wisconsin in the landslide that delivered Republican Tommy Thompson a third term as governor in 1994.
But the former president can still win there, according to Thompson, who held the office for a record 14 years, if he follows four rules he says were his formula for success.
Trump famously cracked Democrats’ “blue wall” when he won Wisconsin, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, in a shock victory that sent him to the White House in 2016. But he lost the state four years later by almost the same margin.
In 2020, little more than 20,000 votes separated him and President Joe Biden in Wisconsin.
By all indications, the election this November will be just as close. Like Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris is within the margin of error in state polling of the presidential race.
But Thompson, 82, laid out a path to victory in an interview with the Washington Examiner that draws on his decades of experience in Wisconsin politics.
“This state is made to order for Donald Trump, and he can win it,” he said.
‘Don’t overlook Wisconsin’
Thompson’s first rule is more of a cautionary tale. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton never stepped foot in Wisconsin during her 2016 run, a decision Thompson says cost her the election.
“She didn’t come and guess what happened? She lost,” Thompson said. “You have to appear here. You have to be here. You have to show up.”
Republicans are determined not to make the same mistake. They nominated Trump last month at their convention in Milwaukee. Before that, they held their first primary debate in the city.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin was the second stop Harris made on a battleground tour this week introducing the country to her new running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).
In total, Trump has visited Wisconsin four times this year, once in Green Bay and the others in Milwaukee or the counties surrounding it.
During his trip to Racine in June, he met with Thompson for a previously unreported meeting in which Thompson casually floated the idea of running Trump’s campaign in Wisconsin.
“That’s a great idea,” he recounted Trump saying, though Dylan Lefler, the former campaign manager for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), has been leading operations in the state.
Don’t skip Madison, either
The electoral success Thompson found as governor is based, in part, on his popularity in Democratic strongholds. He won Milwaukee County three times — in 1990, 1994, and 1998 — and Dane County, home to Madison, in 1994.
No Republican has been able to replicate that kind of crossover appeal since he left office in 2001, and most don’t try.
“Wrong,” Thompson, known as a pragmatic conservative during his four terms in office, said of the lack of outreach. “That’s why Republicans lose.”
The country is more polarized today, a fact compounded by voters’ tendency to stick to their partisan affiliation in federal races. Now-Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) carried Milwaukee and Dane counties by large margins when Thompson mounted an unsuccessful Senate run in 2012.
But Thompson, who attributed the loss to President Barack Obama running at the top of the ticket, said the key is not to win the counties outright, but rather to keep Democrats from running up the score.
“It’s not winning or losing. It’s diminishing how much you’re going to lose by that makes you win statewide,” Thompson said. “And that’s something Republicans have got to see in order to carry this state.”
As for Trump, he lost to Biden by 40 percentage points in Milwaukee County and 53 points in Dane. But Thompson said he can improve his margins if he spends time in those areas with a message that resonates with traditionally Democratic voters.
“You’ve got to be willing to go to the black churches and the labor unions and be willing to show up in Milwaukee and show them that you really care about their issues,” Thompson said.
He praised Trump’s decision to hold a May rally in the South Bronx, a New York borough where he only won 16% of the vote in 2020.
‘Lay out a program’
Thompson outlined how Trump can tailor his message to each part of Wisconsin. In Madison, he should focus on education and healthcare, while up north, protecting Social Security will resonate with elderly voters.
But Thompson’s overarching rule is to come with a plan, and be sure it’s forward-looking.
“What does the future portend? What do you expect to accomplish?” he said.
Trump has struggled to stay on message since Harris took over the Democratic ticket. He drove a dayslong news cycle by falsely accusing the vice president of faking her black identity, while he continues to relitigate unfounded claims of fraud in the 2020 election.
Nonetheless, Trump does appear sensitive to the risk he could lose the election on policy grounds. The other week, he proposed eliminating taxes on the Social Security benefits of seniors. In April, he rejected Republicans’ attempts to pursue a national abortion ban.
Republicans expect to perform better in the suburbs this cycle thanks to Trump moderating the party’s stance on abortion – he amended the GOP platform in July to keep access a state issue.
But Thompson said Trump can also recover eroding support in the suburbs, particularly among women, if he focuses on public safety and parental rights.
“If you tell them you’re going to be tough on crime and make it safe for their children, and you’re going to allow the parents to have more involvement in education, these are the issues that speak to suburban women,” Thompson said.
‘Be positive’
So far, Harris has yet to lay out her agenda in concrete terms. She has no policy page on her campaign website and has not sat for interviews with the press.
But Harris has seemingly adopted Thompson’s fourth principle, a message focused as much on outlook as demeanor.
“You’ve got to have a cheery and smiley and positive attitude about Wisconsin, about the government, about what you want to do,” he said.
The Washington Examiner spoke to Thompson days before Biden dropped out of the race. Since then, Harris has taken over the ticket with a “joyful warrior” message meant to draw a contrast with Trump. The Democrats accuse him of running a campaign built on grievance.
Thompson himself had no criticism for Trump. He praised his ability to draw a crowd — “That’s a hell of a gift to have” — while judging that political headwinds, including inflation and the border, will play to his advantage.
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When asked, he reasoned that Trump could stand to be “a little bit more diplomatic at times,” but said that comes with the former president’s personality.
“Why would you want to change it? I’d like to channel it a little bit,” he said, “but let Trump be Trump.”
