With Election Day just over a month away, former President Donald Trump might have the best chance he’s ever had to win something that’s eluded his grasp for years: the popular vote.
He lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points in 2016 and 4 points in 2020. Despite his loss four years ago, Trump has often reminded people that he “got more votes than any Republican in history by far,” during the 2020 election.
“In fact, I got more votes than any president, sitting president in history by far,” he said during his first debate with Harris earlier this month.
Here’s why Trump might be able to break even his own record this fall.
Polling shows Trump in a much stronger position to win the popular vote than the previous races he’s run in. New York Times polling indicates that Biden had an 8-point lead over Trump in September 2020. Similarly, polling showed Trump losing to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 7 points in 2016.
At roughly the same point in the election this time around, Trump appears to be in a dead heat with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Meanwhile, Trump has a long history of outperforming polling, defying expectations when he won the 2016 election, and once again breaking expectations four years later.
Enthusiasm for Trump increasing among critical voting blocs could be another factor fueling his rising popular vote numbers. His popularity among white evangelicals went from 73% in 2016 to 82%, according to a Marist College poll released this month.
Meanwhile, he’s increased in popularity with male voters by 7 points since running against Biden in 2020, according to New York Times polling. He’s even made inroads with female voters. Biden held a 22-point advantage over Trump with the voting bloc four years ago, while Clinton held a 20-point advantage in 2016, according to Marist polling. Harris is polling lower than either of her Democratic predecessors with a 15-point lead over Trump.
Trump has also made inroads with black voters, long considered safe votes for Democrats.
During his 2020 presidential election, Trump captured 8% of the black vote, according to the Pew Research Center.
The latest New York Times polling indicates he’s nearly doubled his margin of support with 15% support among black voters. Other polls indicate the number is even higher.
During a similar point of his presidential campaign in 2012, GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney held 0% of black support nationally.
The news comes after Trump has ventured into majority-minority Democratic strongholds across the country numerous times over the past year. From the Bronx and Atlanta to Philadelphia and Detroit, he’s touted policies he says have helped the black community.
During an appearance before a National Association of Black Journalists conference in July, Trump harped on “one of the greatest programs ever for black workers and black entrepreneurs” as he celebrated Opportunity Zones. During his presidency, he signed a tax break for distressed communities, spearheaded by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), into law.
Trump is also making progress courting young voters, a demographic whose Democratic flank is frustrated with Harris over her stance on the war in Gaza. She’s walking a fine line trying to appeal to young people, many of whom are disgruntled over the stance on the war in Gaza, without alienating traditional pro-Israel Democrats.
While Harris battles to pull her coalition together, Trump has reached millions of young voters with a stream of nontraditional media appearances.
He recently discussed the effect drugs had on his older brother during a sit-down with comedian Theo Von. That came after doing an interview with Adin Ross on Kick, a platform popular for video game streaming.
He’s also appeared on influencer and wrestler Logan Paul’s Impaulsive podcast and the All-In podcast, which focuses on tech topics with four venture capitalists. In addition, he went on X with owner Elon Musk for a two-hour interview and participated in a golf challenge with LIV player Bryson DeChambeau on YouTube.
.@realDonaldTrump | This Past Weekend #526 pic.twitter.com/zy6pfStBjJ
— Theo Von (@TheoVon) August 21, 2024
Harris’s allies have prominently waged their own social media campaign to win young voters. Earlier this week, former President Barack Obama went on TikTok to promote voter registration.
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But the vice president has been hesitant to take her own message on various platforms, preferring instead to reach people through rallies and events. She’s done only a few media sit-downs this year, all on traditional platforms.
Should Trump continue to focus on taking his voice to new and expanded audiences, he could continue to see increasing popularity among certain demographics and add to his total vote count on Election Day.
