Republican Steve Hilton is gaining momentum in California’s crowded and chaotic governor’s race, but the development might actually end up a good thing for Democrats.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the 10-candidate deep primary race with 19% of likely voters, according to the latest UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll. Behind him is a pile-up of tied candidates, including Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer at 13%, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Of the 1,004 likely voters polled, 17% said they were undecided.
Hilton, separating himself from the pack, however, has at least some Democratic strategists breathing a small sigh of relief. Crucially, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the only other Republican in the race, sits on 11% in the new poll.
“A unified Republican base for one candidate does benefit Democrats who desperately need to get one of their candidates to finish in the top two in the June jungle primary, a major flash point between the party and its candidates as pressure builds for single-digit polling candidates to end their campaign,” political expert Jeff Le told the Washington Examiner.
In a separate poll, it’s Swalwell who’s got the edge, leading with 17% of likely voters, according to an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll released Wednesday. Hilton trailed, with 13%. More than 25% of voters were undecided.
Fears that a fractured Democratic field could produce a shocking result in the blue state’s gubernatorial election have prompted the state’s party chairman to implore candidates who can’t realistically win to drop out.
In an open letter to the crowded field vying to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rusty Hicks warned that infighting and ego-driven campaigns risked handing Republicans a viable path to the governor’s mansion. One person dropped out, bringing the total number of Democratic candidates to eight and Republicans to two.
Despite Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the deep-blue state and nearly two decades of dominance, strategists have started to worry that the state’s “jungle primary” system could scramble expectations.
Under the system, the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. With so many Democrats splitting the vote, party officials fear Republicans could consolidate behind fewer candidates and capture both general-election slots, locking Democrats out entirely. But in order for that to happen, Hilton and Bianco would likely have to split their support. Hilton eating into Bianco’s support makes the Republican top two scenario less likely.
The stakes of the governor’s race extend beyond Sacramento. Democrats fear a November ballot without a Democrat at the top of the ticket could depress turnout statewide, threatening congressional races critical to the party’s hopes of reclaiming the House majority.
The California Democratic Party announced this week it is allocating hundreds of thousands of dollars for a series of six polls in the governor’s race, with the first set of results expected for March 24. Hicks said the polling is intended to give the clogged candidates and voters a clearer sense of where the race stands.
“Now that the filing deadline has passed, candidates have the chance to demonstrate whether they have a credible path to victory,” he told the Los Angeles Times. “Our goal is to make sure everyone has the information needed to understand the current dynamics of the contest.”
CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS CRAFT PRESSURE CAMPAIGN TO NARROW GOVERNOR’S RACE FIELD
Hilton had previously told the Washington Examiner he finds it “entertaining” to watch the Democrats strategize against him.
“I think it’s hilarious to see them panicking,” he said. “When you look at who they’ve actually got running, it’s just a disaster for them. They’ve got no one of the kind of stature or leadership that you would expect from a state that’s just the jewel in the crown of the Democrat Party nationally. And it just shows you that after 16 years of one-party rule, this is what you get. It’s like a conveyor belt of crappier and crappier politicians.”
