Three weeks after Election Day, there are still three races yet to be called for the House of Representatives that could determine how much wiggle room Republicans will have to work with when they swear in their majority next year.
Of the three outstanding House races, two are in California and one is in Iowa. All three are locked in the tightest of margins, with the widest lead at just 800 votes. It could still take days or weeks for those races to be called, and although they will not shift the balance of power in the lower chamber, they could make things more difficult for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to wrangle his conference.
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Despite Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ (R-IA) race remaining uncalled, the incumbent Republican declared victory late on election night and GOP leaders have celebrated her win. As of Wednesday morning, Miller-Meeks led Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by exactly 800 votes.
Miller-Meeks is no stranger to tight races, winning her first election in 2020 by just six votes. She later increased that margin of victory to defeat Bohannan by nearly 20,000 votes in 2022.
But the results this year are taking longer to process after Bohannan requested a recount, putting election workers through the strenuous process of verifying and tabulating ballots a second time.
California is a bit more nuanced. The state has a slew of election laws that delay its results from being certified, especially when those races are already deemed too close to call.
Two races remain uncalled in the Golden State: California’s 13th Congressional District, held by Rep. John Duarte (R-CA), and the 45th Congressional District, held by Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA). Under current leads, both Republican incumbents are narrowly trailing their opponents by fewer than 615 votes.
Duarte is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Adam Gray, who lost to Duarte in 2022 by just 564 votes. Meanwhile, Steel is locked in a tight contest with Derek Tran, an Army veteran and consumer rights attorney.
Tran declared victory in the race earlier this week despite the district not being called by the Associated Press.
Both districts were considered two of the most competitive races of the 2024 cycle and were both rated as toss-ups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
California is one of just eight states in the country that sends mail-in ballots to all registered voters, which complicates the system by which they are processed. Mail-in ballots take longer to process as election officials must verify signatures, check for duplicate ballots, and occasionally resend ballots that have been damaged or improperly submitted.
Additionally, California accepts postmarked ballots for a week after Election Day, which lengthens the ballot-counting process.
Vote certification then tends to drag on as California allows for ballot curing up until Dec. 1, meaning election officials can reach out to voters who made mistakes on their ballots such as forgetting a signature or using an incorrect envelope.
As a result, it could take days or even weeks before those races are called, and the slim margins have shifted between both candidates. If Democrats manage to flip both seats in their favor, that could have a major impact on how Republicans navigate the House next year.
If those numbers hold, Republicans will have a 220-215 majority — one seat fewer than the margin they worked with over the last year.
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However, those numbers will not hold for long. Republicans are expected to start the year with at least three vacancies in the seats held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned earlier this month, and Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL), who will join the Trump administration.
Those vacancies would leave the House makeup at 217-215, giving Republicans only a one-seat majority — raising concerns among members about how much of President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda they will be able to accomplish in the first 100 days. It also puts added pressure on Johnson to lock up every single GOP vote for the Jan. 3, 2025, floor vote for House speaker.
