Virginia Republicans, led in the commonwealth-wide gubernatorial and House of Delegates 2025 races by lackluster Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, appear headed for a Democratic rout, according to the long-awaited State Navigate analysis of the election.
The nonpartisan group on Monday released its review of the races and found Republican gubernatorial nominee Earle-Sears behind former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger by 11.4%. It also said that Spanberger has a 96% chance of winning the governor’s race.
In the House of Delegates, Democrats are also poised to add to their narrow majority, likely giving liberals in the state a chance to reverse the agenda of popular Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited to one four-year stint. He is a possible 2028 presidential candidate.
In the House of Delegates races, Democrats are set to flip seven Republican seats for a possible advantage of 58-42 in the capital of Richmond. They currently hold the majority of Senate seats, 21-19. Senate elections don’t occur until 2026.
FORECAST LAUNCH
The long-awaited @StateNavigate Virginia 2025 forecasts are LIVE.
House of Delegates
Democrats net 7 seats
In the race for statewide elections:
GOV |
LG |
AG |— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) July 28, 2025
The State Navigate survey came with caveats, the biggest of which is the effect of President Donald Trump, especially in Northern Virginia, where his actions to drain the swamp make him unpopular.
But Trump has been scoring wins on issues many Virginia voters like, so a rebound in his popularity is not out of the question. However, he lost the state in 2024 to former Vice President Kamala Harris by over five points.
Larry Sabato, the founder of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, called the State Navigate prediction “bold.” Sabato, however, isn’t closing the door to a tight election, noting that Earle-Sears has won two races as an underdog. “That’s another reason not to bring down the curtain too early,” he told Secrets.
Sabato also pointed out that Republican state Attorney General Jason Miyares, the only incumbent on the commonwealth-wide ticket, is well funded.
The State Navigate analysis agreed that the race is still forming.
“We’re at the beginning of the track, and the results from 2024 bode well for Democrats,” said the new analysis. “We’re just past the quarter mile. We’re rapidly approaching the end of the gubernatorial quarter mile, and Democrats are over 400 yards ahead of the Republicans,” it added.
Earle-Sears appeared to start her campaign slowly and recently dumped her campaign manager. She has been hitting Spanberger’s liberal record.
Spanberger, meanwhile, has outraised Earle-Sears 2-to-1 and maintains a sizable lead in polls.
No matter who wins, it will be another historic step for Virginia, as a woman has never led the state as governor.
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The State Navigate analysis noted that Virginia has a history of electing governors from the opposite party of the new president, though Youngkin won the year after the nation voted in former Democratic President Joe Biden.
“The commonwealth has typically been seen as a catalyst for how the party out of power from the White House should go forward in its messaging in the following midterm elections, and a barometer for public opinion on the incumbent president. This tradition stems from a usual decline in presidential approval as the public exits the ‘honeymoon phase’ of a president’s term,” said the analysis.
