President-elect Donald Trump’s influence over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the defining factor in reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, according to sources close to the negotiations.
Trump, who is set to assume the presidency on Jan. 20, made clear after his November victory that the United States would be prepared to act aggressively in its own interests, and against the interests of other parties, if a peace deal wasn’t secured by the time he took office.
“All hell will break out. If those hostages aren’t back, I don’t want to hurt your negotiation. If they’re not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East,” Trump warned earlier this month.
The warning was interpreted as a clear threat to Hamas, which finds itself weakened and desperate after over a year of bombings and the steady advancement of Israeli control. But Trump’s ominous message also threatened to undermine Israeli officials’ confidence that the U.S. would always have their back.
Netanyahu has faced intense pressure from the right wing of his government to reject any peace deal that could be seen as a concession to its adversaries. For this reason and others, the prime minister spent over a year giving President Joe Biden the runaround on negotiations.
But Trump’s unapologetically self-concerned vision for American diplomacy, coupled with Israel’s reliance on U.S. support to maintain its military supremacy in the Middle East, seems to have influenced Netanyahu’s acceptance of a deal.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, was brought into the U.S. mediation team working alongside Qatari and Egyptian officials following Trump’s election.
The Trump surrogate was instructed to take an uncompromising tone with both parties, leveraging Hamas’s weakness and Israel’s reliance on U.S. support to force an agreement.
“[Trump] gives us a lot of authority to speak on his behalf, and he exhorts us to speak emphatically,” Witkoff told the press last week in Palm Beach, Florida. “And emphatically means: ‘You better do this’.”
A diplomat familiar with the situation told the Washington Post that the Trump team’s involvement was “the first time there has been real pressure on the Israeli side to accept a deal.”
“What has changed over the last eight months? It was Trump and Witkoff,” another person familiar with the process told the Financial Times. “The way Trump has operated has really shown the difference.”
The source claimed Trump “operated with this as though he was trying to get a business deal through,” refreshing the stalled negotiations and thawing Netanyahu’s standoffish attitude toward mediators with blunt expectations and “the right pressure.”
Officials in the State Department have tipped their hat to the incoming Trump administration for their assistance.
“The involvement of President-elect Trump’s team has been absolutely critical in getting this deal over the line,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said of the deal. “And it’s been critical because obviously, as I stand today, this administration’s term in office will expire in five days.”
Trump’s team appears to be maintaining its high expectations for cooperation from Israel, warning officials not to jeopardize the current ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, according to a report from the Jerusalem Post.
The Israel Defense Forces have been slow to withdraw from their position in the southern part of Lebanon despite a Nov. 27 ceasefire deal that gave the Lebanese Army and the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon exclusive jurisdiction over the region.
UNIFIL has moved in to secure the territory and dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure, but the Lebanese Army has lagged in its deployment.
Previous IDF operations have decapitated the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah’s leadership and left the militia disorganized, but remnants of the group remain in the area. The IDF has used this violation as justification for its own continued presence, frustrating the process.
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“The continued occupation by the Israel [military] inside the UNIFIL area operations and the conduct of military operations in Lebanese territory are violations of Resolution 1701,” said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.
Israeli officials are reportedly hoping for the U.S. to take a more proactive role in ensuring that the Lebanese army is properly deployed and the terms of the ceasefire are enforced on Hezbollah’s remaining personnel.
