President Donald Trump’s threat to withhold federal disaster relief to parts of California until certain conditions are met was chalked up to “political theater” by experts on Monday.
Juliet Musso, associate professor at the Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California, told the Washington Examiner that Trump’s demand for a voter ID law in the solidly blue state in return for fire aid was more “political theater” than anything else.
She added that getting such a law passed in a place where Democrats hold solid majorities in the state Assembly and Senate would likely never happen.
“We just don’t have the political support to undertake laws like that and I don’t see our governor signing off on that kind of legislation, so I think a lot of this right now is political theater,” she said. “That doesn’t mean that Trump won’t try to withhold funds in a way that could be harmful for California.”
Trump has blamed the California wildfires on destructive liberal environmental policies.
On Friday he said in order to free up federal money, voter identification laws and the release of more water from Northern California to other parts of the state would have to take place.
“I want to see two things in Los Angeles, voter ID, so that the people have a chance to vote, and I want to see the water be released and come down into Los Angeles and the state,” he said ahead of his visit to California. “Those are the two things.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said he’d support withholding funds until certain demands are met, including how the state is managed.
“We’ve talked about conditioning the aid that will go there, to policy changes. I think that is a common-sense notion that is supported by the vast majority of the American people who do not want to subsidize crazy California leftist policies that are dangerous for people,” he said Monday during a press conference at Trump National Doral in Miami.
“Now what the terms are and the details of that, we will be working out,” Johnson added. “But entwined about all that is the concern about election security in California, and voter ID is a matter that, again, comports with common sense, that most American people see the value in. And it will be something we’ll be trying to advance.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) called conditioning aid for U.S. citizens “wrong,” while Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA), another Trump antagonist, called it “shameful.”
Trump’s approach to California, a place that he has long lauded as an example of everything that is wrong with America, has put several Republicans who narrowly won House seats in November in the hot seat. California’s nine-member GOP delegation will have to decide whether to stand up to Trump or show a united party front and fall in line with the president.
“It puts Republican lawmakers in California in a little bit of a jam,” Musso said. “He can be vindictive, so there’s a chance [Republican lawmakers are afraid to break with him].”
For some, like Rep. Young Kim (R-CA), the answer is easy.
“Playing politics with people’s livelihoods is unacceptable and a slap in the face to the Southern California wildfire victims and to our brave first responders,” he said in a statement. Kim’s district is in Orange County, just southeast of badly hit Los Angeles.
For others, it’s a balancing act.
“Californians are entitled to receive federal disaster assistance in the same manner as all Americans,” Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) wrote on X. But, he added, “Some federal policy changes may be needed to expedite rebuilding as well as improve future wildfire prevention. Those kinds of policies are not conditions.”
Darry Sragow, a longtime California Democratic political strategist, told the Washington Examiner that despite the president’s pledge to withhold money to the region, outside influences could force his hand.
“You’ve got the FIFA World Cup, the Super Bowl, and Olympics coming here pretty quickly and if he, being who he is, wants to be front and center for those events and take credit for them, he’s going to have to be able to say and prove that he made a substantial contribution to putting Los Angeles back together,” Sragow said.
Sragow also called Trump’s threats against the state “classic Donald Trump.”
“He is a negotiator and he has a very vengeful side to him, and that’s what you see when he suggests something like that,” he said, adding the president might change his mind if he feels like his reputation on a global stage would take a hit.
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“The real question is whether in the days ahead we are going to see the vengeful Donald Trump that we have come to expect or a compassionate Donald Trump who truly wants to help rebuild in California, and, being the person he is, wants to take full credit for it.
“If he chooses the second option, there is a real upside for him. If he can legitimately take credit for us getting back on our feet, he’ll obviously improve his standing with California voters but, more than that, the California Republican Party, which has been flat on the ground for three decades now. If he tries to play good cop rather than bad cop, it could help rebuild his own party in a very important state.”
