Trump Surges Against Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania

A series of polls show President Donald Trump has improved his standing in several key Rust Belt states ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

Firehouse Strategies released surveys of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania on Tuesday indicating Trump is holding his own when matched against several of his potential Democrat opponents. These three states were key to President Trump’s victory in 2016. If Trump had lost each of them, he would not have had more than 270 electoral votes and would not have won the presidency. But since Trump flipped all three from Democrat control, along with other major wins in battlegrounds like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa, the president was able to defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton–winning a total of 306 electoral votes from 30 and a half states.

In the Firehouse Strategies survey of 535 Wisconsin likely voters, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump 46 percent to 40 percent. Although Trump trails Biden in Wisconsin in this poll, the Democrat frontrunner’s lead has shrunk by more than half since a similar survey of Wisconsin was conduced for Firehouse Strategies in March when Biden led Trump by 13 percent, 53 percent to 40 percent, in the Badger State.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) was the only other candidate to lead Trump in the Wisconsin survey, out in front of the president 47 percent to 40 percent. Of the other two Democrats included in the survey, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) was tied with Trump at 41 percent each, while South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg trailed the president 41 percent to 39 percent. This new Wisconsin survey was conducted from June 11 to June 13 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Wisconsin at presidential level since Ronald Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984. Even though Trump succeeded in flipping the state, it was by a narrow 23,000 vote margin.

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Trump also appears to have made significant inroads within the state since the last presidential election. The poll found that Wisconsin’s Democrat “base,” meaning respondents voting Democratic regardless of matchup, was 32 percent. Trump’s base, meanwhile, was 37 percent.

The results were similar in Firehouse Strategies’ Pennsylvania survey of 565 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.2 percent. Firehouse Strategies found in a head-t0-head contest with Biden in the Keystone State, Trump was narrowly down, trailing the former Vice President by just one point–42 percent to 43 percent–well within the survey’s margin of error. When matched with Sanders, the president led 44 percent to 41 percent.

Against Buttigieg and Warren, Trump led each by more than 10 percentage points in Pennsylvania. Against Warren, Trump led 45 percent to 34 percent whereas against Buttigieg the president led 45 percent to 32 percent. This latest Pennsylvania survey was conducted from June 11 to June 13.

The results from Pennsylvania represent a significant shift in this firm’s findings in favor of Trump since March. Firehouse Strategies’ poll of Pennsylvania from March had seen Biden leading Trump by seven points in the state, 50 percent to 43 percent. That same poll in March had found Sanders and the president locked in a tie in Pennsylvania.