Everybody has an opinion on what happened in the 2024 election and how Donald Trump pulled out a win over media darling Vice President Kamala Harris.
But Cygnal poll founder Brent Buchanan has done extensive research to nail what he believes happened a year ago and has boiled it down to a couple of basic points:
— Trump spoke for voters fed up with former President Joe Biden’s bumbling liberalism and represented a path to “getting back what was lost.”
— Harris, well, was an incompetent spendthrift.
In America’s Emotional Divide: Navigating the Powerful Decision-Making Forces Impacting Politics, Policies & Personal Choices, Buchanan uncorks new polling and analysis of the election and how it is likely to influence future contests.
The bottom line, he wrote, “was a perfect storm of unique factors that built up over time. Trump’s personality. Joe Biden’s obvious mental decline. Kamala Harris’ laugh. The undeniable — but ignored by the media — corruption and sleaziness of the Biden family. How they manipulated things to shove Kamala Harris into the candidate role. Her breathtaking incompetence. The bizarre show of a campaign that swung from assassination attempts and serious issues to Democrats abandoning their traditional base to the craziness of the final weeks.”
Buchanan tapped into Cygnal’s pre-election, Election Day, and post-election surveys, as well as others, to conclude that voter emotions, especially on cultural issues, have become the driver more than the economy. And on that, Trump won hands down.
“Emotions rule,” he wrote. “Emotion fuels which issues surface, which frames stick, which messages carry, and which loyalties persist — or diverge — across households and years. They affect how and why voters embrace parties, candidates, and issues. It is the energy under the strategy and the reason a voter chooses whether to show up…or not,” he added.
In 2024, voters were emotional. Biden’s presidency, he said, had split the nation on several cultural lines and issues. Trump tapped into that with authenticity, and his campaign played up his voter-teasing antics, such as when he served French fries at a McDonald’s and drove a garbage truck to mock the Democrats.
Harris, the media and leading Democrats, meanwhile, ignored all that and stuck to the old campaign playbook. “There’s a surprise gift the Left seems set on giving: smug arrogance,” said Buchanan, whose outfit has polled for groups including the late Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA.
The former vice president, who is eyeing another presidential bid, is currently on a national tour for her book that even supporters have called out-of-touch and full of “lies.”
For the GOP to fully become the party of the working class, they must relentlessly talk about working-class issues in a way that is authentic.
Go read @Jim_Banks‘s memo. https://t.co/13n0da4DPy
— Brent Buchanan, Pollster (@brentbuc) November 26, 2025
Buchanan’s analysis, aimed at newsrooms, campaigns, and boardrooms, also compared Trump’s 2024 victory to his 2016 win. The difference, he said, was that in the earlier contest, Hillary Rodham Clinton was simply unlikable, and in 2024, Trump was the “hand grenade” frustrated voters wanted to blow up the swamp.
“If America in 2024 didn’t have Trump to recognize what was happening and lead the charge, we would have had the nearly impossible task of inventing someone like him. By winning and starting his second term, he’s become the most important president in maybe a hundred years. The impact has been positive because he’s responding to what angry voting groups wanted and is giving them what they’ve been asking for,” said the pollster.
On the question of whether Trump’s MAGA coalition can stay together, Buchanan suggested an equally emotional candidate could capture the president’s supporters.
“Perhaps one of the most provocative lessons of 2024 is that playing it safe is emotionally flat. Candidates who inspire passion (pro or con) were those who took bold stands and painted big visions. In contrast, cautious or bullet-point approaches failed to inspire. This doesn’t mean be extreme for extremity’s sake, but it means having courage to strike a clear emotional tone. Lukewarm doesn’t win hearts,” said Buchanan.
As an example, Buchanan cited Kirk, whom he had planned to write the forward to his book before the conservative activist’s September assassination at a Utah college.
“His success didn’t come from superior policy knowledge or political connections — both of which he had — but from his willingness to authentically engage with the feelings driving political beliefs,” said Buchanan.
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In what he dubbed the “final call of this book,” Buchanan said winning in today’s world comes down to passion.
“Embrace the fact that emotions rule and adjust your mind-set accordingly. The old playbook of rationality is obsolete. Whether you’re campaigning for president, building a brand, or advancing a policy, make emotional connection your first priority. Issues come and go, but emotions endure and drive action,” he said.
