While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
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Karen Bass meets with Trump at White House to push for LA wildfire relief after months of clashes
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Senate GOP launches all-night vote-a-rama to fund ICE, Border Patrol through end of Trump’s term
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Senate GOP rams through blueprint to bankroll ICE, Border Patrol through end of Trump era
Karen Bass meets with Trump at White House to push for LA wildfire relief after months of clashes
Man who pleaded guilty to raping 12-year-old relative is illegal immigrant from Honduras, DHS says
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
Senate GOP rams through blueprint to bankroll ICE, Border Patrol through end of Trump era
Karen Bass meets with Trump at White House to push for LA wildfire relief after months of clashes
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Florida prisoner laughs as judge sentences him to life for killing cellmate with pen: ‘You are amusing’
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Ilhan Omar Rages at Reporter Who Confronted Her About Financial Disclosure: ‘You’re Stupid’
Five things to know about Maine Senate hopeful Graham Platner
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You Don’t Distrust Legacy Media Enough: Major Paper Shrugs at SPLC Paying Extremists – ‘FBI Does It Too’
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Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Senate GOP rams through blueprint to bankroll ICE, Border Patrol through end of Trump era
Karen Bass meets with Trump at White House to push for LA wildfire relief after months of clashes
Man who pleaded guilty to raping 12-year-old relative is illegal immigrant from Honduras, DHS says
Manhattan DA’s office employee charged with sexual abuse after alleged incident on Queens subway
Florida prisoner laughs as judge sentences him to life for killing cellmate with pen: ‘You are amusing’
Florida man’s execution date set for killing 2, including small child
Senate GOP launches all-night vote-a-rama to fund ICE, Border Patrol through end of Trump’s term
Ilhan Omar Rages at Reporter Who Confronted Her About Financial Disclosure: ‘You’re Stupid’
Five things to know about Maine Senate hopeful Graham Platner
Judge Slams the Brakes on Democrats’ Virginia Redistricting, Rules Every Vote ‘Ineffective’
Video exposes disrepair lurking beneath Trump Kennedy Center as $257M renovation looms
‘Come On!’: Maury Povich Dismantles Joy Reid’s Absurd Claim That Dems Don’t ‘Play Politics’
Obama’s Shameless Hypocrisy Exposed as He Celebrates Democrats’ Virginia Power Grab
You Don’t Distrust Legacy Media Enough: Major Paper Shrugs at SPLC Paying Extremists – ‘FBI Does It Too’
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This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
