While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
College basketball player gunned down on Nashville freeway, police hunting for suspects
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Afghan illegal immigrant who stabbed sister for being ‘bad Muslim girl’ arrested by ICE agents in New York
Lawmakers warn Philly officials against prosecuting ICE agents: ‘That’s not how America works’
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BREAKING: Republican House Oversight Committee to Hold Bill Clinton in Contempt
Watch: Whoopi Goldberg Attempts to Walk Back Vicious Anti-ICE Comment After Thinking It Over During Commercial Break
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
College basketball player gunned down on Nashville freeway, police hunting for suspects
Iran goes dark as regime unleashes force, cyber tools to crush protests
Afghan illegal immigrant who stabbed sister for being ‘bad Muslim girl’ arrested by ICE agents in New York
Lawmakers warn Philly officials against prosecuting ICE agents: ‘That’s not how America works’
Newsom blasts proposed California billionaire tax but keeps door open to national debate
BREAKING: Republican House Oversight Committee to Hold Bill Clinton in Contempt
Watch: Whoopi Goldberg Attempts to Walk Back Vicious Anti-ICE Comment After Thinking It Over During Commercial Break
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GOP unveils plan to cut deficit by $1 trillion with second ‘big, beautiful bill’
Byron Donalds took large donations from CCP-linked firm despite criticism of China
Trump cancels talks with Iran delegation as death toll from protests hits 2,000
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Breaking: Positive Inflation Report Delivers Economic Win for Trump
Federal agents deploy tear gas, rubber bullets on protesters outside Minneapolis federal building
House GOP leader blasts trans athletes in girls’ sports as ‘biggest form of bullying’
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
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Afghan illegal immigrant who stabbed sister for being ‘bad Muslim girl’ arrested by ICE agents in New York
Lawmakers warn Philly officials against prosecuting ICE agents: ‘That’s not how America works’
Newsom blasts proposed California billionaire tax but keeps door open to national debate
BREAKING: Republican House Oversight Committee to Hold Bill Clinton in Contempt
Watch: Whoopi Goldberg Attempts to Walk Back Vicious Anti-ICE Comment After Thinking It Over During Commercial Break
Trump cheers steady inflation numbers as affordability fight shapes 2026 midterm battle
GOP unveils plan to cut deficit by $1 trillion with second ‘big, beautiful bill’
Byron Donalds took large donations from CCP-linked firm despite criticism of China
Trump cancels talks with Iran delegation as death toll from protests hits 2,000
BREAKING: Trump Steps Into Iran Crisis With Direct Message to Protesters: ‘Help is on the Way’
Breaking: Positive Inflation Report Delivers Economic Win for Trump
Federal agents deploy tear gas, rubber bullets on protesters outside Minneapolis federal building
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This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
