While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
Sen Schmitt reups push for expanding denaturalization after recent acts of violence by naturalized citizens
Doctor denies knowing about rampant LA-area Medicare fraud using his provider number
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Sen Schmitt reups push for expanding denaturalization after recent acts of violence by naturalized citizens
Doctor denies knowing about rampant LA-area Medicare fraud using his provider number
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
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Illegal alien’s violent tussle with federal officer leads to multiple charges after suspected Biden-era entry
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Report: Veteran CBS Reporter Quit After Network Refused to Obsess Over Jan. 6 Anniversary
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Old Dominion University shooter identified as Mohamed Jalloh, former National Guard member, ISIS supporter
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Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Sen Schmitt reups push for expanding denaturalization after recent acts of violence by naturalized citizens
Doctor denies knowing about rampant LA-area Medicare fraud using his provider number
Mamdani touts landmark court victory against repeat offender landlord in housing enforcement push
California mountain biker dies after month-long hospital stay following rattlesnake bite
Soros-backed DA sparks backlash after blaming Old Dominion shooting on pro-gun lawmakers: ‘F— right off’
Illegal alien’s violent tussle with federal officer leads to multiple charges after suspected Biden-era entry
US Military Plane Lost Amid ‘Operation Epic Fury’: US Central Command
Report: Veteran CBS Reporter Quit After Network Refused to Obsess Over Jan. 6 Anniversary
Thune Announces He’s Bringing SAVE America Act to Senate Floor, Forcing Dems to Go on Record Opposing 83 Percent of Americans
Actress Katherine Heigl Fires Back After She’s Criticized for Attending Mar-a-Lago Event
Retired Air Force Major General with Links to UFO Researcher Goes Missing – Search Underway
Legalize prostitution effort left candidate ‘shocked’ in blue state with rampant human trafficking
WATCH: Democratic Lawmaker Calls ‘Moms for Liberty’ a ‘Terrorist Group’ Then Doubles Down After Being Called Out
Old Dominion University shooter identified as Mohamed Jalloh, former National Guard member, ISIS supporter
FBI held active shooter training at Michigan synagogue weeks before attack
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
