While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
Trump’s ‘war on fraud’ draws range of reactions during SOTU speech
Former top Harris adviser ignites backlash over ‘political props’ comment targeting USA men’s hockey team
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GOP to campaign on Democrats picking illegal immigrants over Americans at State of the Union
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Sen. Chuck Schumer Defends Democrats’ Decision to Sit During SOTU, After Trump Invited Them to Stand if They Support Americans Over Illegals
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
Trump’s ‘war on fraud’ draws range of reactions during SOTU speech
Former top Harris adviser ignites backlash over ‘political props’ comment targeting USA men’s hockey team
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
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GOP to campaign on Democrats picking illegal immigrants over Americans at State of the Union
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Sen. Chuck Schumer Defends Democrats’ Decision to Sit During SOTU, After Trump Invited Them to Stand if They Support Americans Over Illegals
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Democrats’ big misfire at State of the Union has GOP strategists salivating: ‘Huge moment’
Child predator dubbed ‘monster parents fear most’ cleared for release through California parole program
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Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
Trump’s ‘war on fraud’ draws range of reactions during SOTU speech
Former top Harris adviser ignites backlash over ‘political props’ comment targeting USA men’s hockey team
The Laundering of Iran’s Atrocities: How Western Voices Became a Shield for the Islamic Republic’s Mass Killings
Capitol Tea: Jim Justice, of Babydog fame, offers to take over Tillis dog parade
Karoline Leavitt Drops List of Policies Dems Wouldn’t Stand For, Including Voter ID and Fewer Murders
GOP to campaign on Democrats picking illegal immigrants over Americans at State of the Union
Thune floats White House lifeline for unpaid DHS workers as shutdown drags on
Sen. Chuck Schumer Defends Democrats’ Decision to Sit During SOTU, After Trump Invited Them to Stand if They Support Americans Over Illegals
Ohio courtroom devolves into chaos after sentencing in death of teen
Fact-checkers challenge Trump’s ‘eight wars’ claim, back him on crime
Democrats’ big misfire at State of the Union has GOP strategists salivating: ‘Huge moment’
Child predator dubbed ‘monster parents fear most’ cleared for release through California parole program
Trump calls for ‘deranged’ Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar to be ‘institutionalized’ after State of the Union
Border-State Sen. Mark Kelly is Feeling the Heat After Refusing to Stand for American Citizens Over Illegals
Takeaways from the intense hearing with Trump surgeon general nominee Casey Means
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
