While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…
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Source: Bloomberg
… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…
GOP leaders want Trump to endorse Cornyn in Texas Senate primary amid fears of costly fight
House Republican Greg Steube introduces bill to nix controversial H-1B visa program
Minivan mom puts Dem incumbent on notice in top GOP target district: ‘She has done nothing for us’
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Federal Judge releases four illegal immigrants convicted of murder, sex crimes from ICE Custody
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Trump threatens ‘consequences’ after 6 House Republicans voted to reverse his Canada tariffs
Illegal alien youth coach could face death penalty after allegedly murdering, raping teen player
Wild Exchange: Nadler Makes Mistake of Insulting Bondi, Triggering a Scorched Earth Response Where She Brings the Receipts on His Hypocrisy and ‘Gutter’ Behavior
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Watch: Nadler Appears to Be Dead Asleep at Epstein DOJ Hearing – Same Hearing Where He Accused AG Bondi of Not Caring About Victims
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Source: Bloomberg
… tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.
Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.
- China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp
- China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp
- China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.
- China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY
- China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%
GOP leaders want Trump to endorse Cornyn in Texas Senate primary amid fears of costly fight
House Republican Greg Steube introduces bill to nix controversial H-1B visa program
Minivan mom puts Dem incumbent on notice in top GOP target district: ‘She has done nothing for us’
Gabbard ends task force that aimed to reform intelligence gathering after less than a year
Florida man allegedly points gun at multiple drivers during road rage confrontation
IRS erroneously shared confidential immigrant taxpayer data with DHS: court filing
Federal Judge releases four illegal immigrants convicted of murder, sex crimes from ICE Custody
Affluent Upper East Side explodes in outrage over controversial homeless shelter: ‘Unacceptable!’
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Illegal alien youth coach could face death penalty after allegedly murdering, raping teen player
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Chinese criminal gang allegedly recruited Navy members for sham marriages and base access
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Watch: Nadler Appears to Be Dead Asleep at Epstein DOJ Hearing – Same Hearing Where He Accused AG Bondi of Not Caring About Victims
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This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..
Source: Bloomberg
This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.
As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.
GOP leaders want Trump to endorse Cornyn in Texas Senate primary amid fears of costly fight
House Republican Greg Steube introduces bill to nix controversial H-1B visa program
Minivan mom puts Dem incumbent on notice in top GOP target district: ‘She has done nothing for us’
Gabbard ends task force that aimed to reform intelligence gathering after less than a year
Florida man allegedly points gun at multiple drivers during road rage confrontation
IRS erroneously shared confidential immigrant taxpayer data with DHS: court filing
Federal Judge releases four illegal immigrants convicted of murder, sex crimes from ICE Custody
Affluent Upper East Side explodes in outrage over controversial homeless shelter: ‘Unacceptable!’
Trump threatens ‘consequences’ after 6 House Republicans voted to reverse his Canada tariffs
Illegal alien youth coach could face death penalty after allegedly murdering, raping teen player
Wild Exchange: Nadler Makes Mistake of Insulting Bondi, Triggering a Scorched Earth Response Where She Brings the Receipts on His Hypocrisy and ‘Gutter’ Behavior
Chinese criminal gang allegedly recruited Navy members for sham marriages and base access
Trump directs military to strike new deals with coal-fired power plants: ‘Going to be buying a lot of coal’
Watch: Nadler Appears to Be Dead Asleep at Epstein DOJ Hearing – Same Hearing Where He Accused AG Bondi of Not Caring About Victims
Report: This GOP Advantage Has Some Democrats Panicking About Their Midterm Chances
Source: Bloomberg
Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.
GOP leaders want Trump to endorse Cornyn in Texas Senate primary amid fears of costly fight
House Republican Greg Steube introduces bill to nix controversial H-1B visa program
Minivan mom puts Dem incumbent on notice in top GOP target district: ‘She has done nothing for us’
Gabbard ends task force that aimed to reform intelligence gathering after less than a year
Florida man allegedly points gun at multiple drivers during road rage confrontation
IRS erroneously shared confidential immigrant taxpayer data with DHS: court filing
Federal Judge releases four illegal immigrants convicted of murder, sex crimes from ICE Custody
Affluent Upper East Side explodes in outrage over controversial homeless shelter: ‘Unacceptable!’
Trump threatens ‘consequences’ after 6 House Republicans voted to reverse his Canada tariffs
Illegal alien youth coach could face death penalty after allegedly murdering, raping teen player
Wild Exchange: Nadler Makes Mistake of Insulting Bondi, Triggering a Scorched Earth Response Where She Brings the Receipts on His Hypocrisy and ‘Gutter’ Behavior
Chinese criminal gang allegedly recruited Navy members for sham marriages and base access
Trump directs military to strike new deals with coal-fired power plants: ‘Going to be buying a lot of coal’
Watch: Nadler Appears to Be Dead Asleep at Epstein DOJ Hearing – Same Hearing Where He Accused AG Bondi of Not Caring About Victims
Report: This GOP Advantage Has Some Democrats Panicking About Their Midterm Chances
This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.
“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”
The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.
As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.
Story cited here.
