Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R-NC) surprise retirement, announced just hours after he broke with President Donald Trump over his sweeping tax and spending cut plan, has upended North Carolina’s 2026 Senate race, turning it into a top Democratic pickup opportunity and reshaping the battle for Senate control.
The announcement came one day after Tillis was one of only two Republican senators to oppose advancing Trump’s domestic policy package, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, citing concerns about its Medicaid reforms.
Speaking on the Senate floor Sunday night, Tillis said lawmakers failed to do the necessary homework to understand how the bill would affect states like North Carolina. Rushing it through without that scrutiny, he argued, would be irresponsible.
“We owe it to the states to do the work to understand how these proposals affect them,” Tillis said, raising his voice. “How hard is it? I did it! How hard is it to sit down and ask the Medicaid office, ask the legislative staff, ask the independent Hospital Association what the impact is? If there’s no negative impact, what’s wrong with daylight? What’s wrong with actually understanding what this bill does?”
Tillis: I owe it to the people of North Carolina, to withhold my affirmative vote until it's demonstrated to me that we've done our homework, we're going to make sure we fulfill the promise. Then I can feel good about a bill that I'm willing to vote for. But until that time, I… pic.twitter.com/EunLlvo9gt
— Acyn (@Acyn) June 30, 2025
His warning about the bill’s Medicaid reforms, and his dramatic break with the president, is now poised to become a centerpiece in the 2026 campaign, as both parties battle for a seat in one of the most competitive states on the map. The race was already expected to be one of the most hard-fought in the country, but Tillis’s exit has cracked it wide open, setting the stage for a potentially chaotic GOP primary and renewed Democratic hopes in a state they haven’t flipped in over a decade.
The announcement came less than 24 hours after Trump publicly teased he was already vetting “numerous” potential primary challengers to replace the North Carolina senator. Trump told supporters on social media Saturday night that several contenders had spoken to him directly and that he planned to meet with them soon.
Just hours after Tillis made his retirement official, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” naming North Carolina the Democrats’ most promising pickup opportunity in 2026.
Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, said Tillis’s departure doesn’t fundamentally shift the race but adds new uncertainty to an already competitive contest. While he faced criticism from within his party, Tillis was still likely to unify Republicans in a general election and had a rare ability to attract moderate and unaffiliated voters, an advantage the GOP may now lose.
“In North Carolina, the largest group of registered voters is not Democrat, it’s not Republican, it’s actually unaffiliated,” Cooper explained. “The point I’m trying to make is that there is this sizable number of folks in the middle, and the fact that Thom Tillis was sometimes frustrating to the Trump agenda might have actually worked in his favor.”
North Carolina has been among the nation’s closest states in recent elections. In 2024, Trump carried the state by just over 3 percentage points. Senate contests have mirrored that intensity: Tillis narrowly beat Cal Cunningham by under 2 points in 2020, and Ted Budd, now the junior U.S. senator, defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley by about 3 points in 2022. With unaffiliated voters now outnumbering those registered with either party, North Carolina remains one of the most evenly divided and consequential battlegrounds in the country.
Possible Senate candidates to watch
Tillis’s departure has opened the floodgates in North Carolina Republican circles, where a wide array of potential candidates are now weighing bids, and Trump is expected to play a decisive role. GOP strategists and operatives say the party could be heading toward a crowded and expensive primary that may push contenders further to the right in pursuit of Trump’s endorsement.
“There’s an element of the Republican Party in North Carolina that denies the purple nature of the state’s electorate or the need to have a nominee with broad appeal,” said GOP strategist Dennis Lennox. “That’s the big question: Have Republicans learned anything from recent losses?”
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, a close Trump ally and former head of the North Carolina GOP, is widely viewed as a serious contender with the infrastructure to mount a fast campaign. Former RNC co-chair Lara Trump, a North Carolina native and Trump’s daughter-in-law, is also said to be “strongly considering” a run, according to a source close to the family cited by NBC News.
Others potentially in the mix include Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC), who represents a coastal district in eastern North Carolina, and freshman Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-NC), a retired Green Beret and firearms manufacturer who many believed was already positioning himself for a Senate run with White House support. Additional names circulating include Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC), the former speaker of the North Carolina House, and Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, who may also weigh bids depending on how the field shapes up.
Dan Bishop, a former GOP congressman and Trump loyalist who lost a bid for state attorney general last year, has also been mentioned as a long-shot contender. Don Brown, a Charlotte attorney and former Navy JAG officer, has already declared his candidacy. Known for defending Jan. 6 defendants and billing himself as an “America First candidate,” Brown has reported limited fundraising to date.
But while the list of potential candidates continues to grow, some Republicans argue the outcome may not hinge on who runs, but on the state’s built-in competitiveness.
“I don’t think it puts Republicans in any worse shape to hold the Senate seat,” said Dallas Woodhouse, former executive director of the North Carolina Republican Party. “This is a state where no matter who runs, it’s a 1-point race either way.”
Woodhouse acknowledged Tillis had frustrations with the current political climate and the direction of his party, but argued that a fresh face, particularly one with Trump’s backing, could unify the base just as effectively.
“If the Republican candidate we put up doesn’t win, Tillis probably wouldn’t have either,” he said. “And if they do win, then Tillis probably would’ve too. That’s just the nature of North Carolina politics.”
Woodhouse named Whatley and Harrigan as the two Republican contenders to watch most closely but said Lara Trump could dramatically alter the race if she entered, effectively clearing it. Still, he expressed skepticism about her running.
“I put Lara Trump as a dark horse just because she doesn’t live in the state of North Carolina right now, and she has very young children, and her life would change dramatically,” Woodhouse said, noting that she could easily meet the state’s residency requirement if she chose to run.
Others warn the party may already be repeating past mistakes.
“Either someone with Trump’s full backing clears the field, or you get a massive pileup where the nominee squeaks through with a narrow plurality,” one North Carolina Republican operative said, likening the situation to Pennsylvania’s chaotic 2022 primary that Dr. Mehmet Oz eventually won, but lost the general election to Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). “And the messier the GOP fight, the more it paves the way for Roy Cooper to get in and clear the field on the Democratic side.”
Democrats are holding out hope for a smoother path, one that hinges almost entirely on whether former Gov. Roy Cooper decides to run. A two-term governor with a perfect electoral record in North Carolina, Cooper would likely clear the Democratic field if he entered, instantly transforming the race and energizing national Democrats.
“Democrats are feeling energized about this news,” said Doug Wilson, a longtime Democratic strategist in North Carolina. “Cooper was instrumental in expanding Medicaid here, something Republicans resisted for a decade, and if he runs, he can contrast that with the GOP’s push to gut it in Trump’s latest bill.”
Wilson said Democrats’ best playbook for 2026 may mirror the one Republicans used against the Affordable Care Act in 2010, turning proposed Medicaid cuts into a potent campaign message well before they take effect. That strategy helped the GOP deliver a devastating blow to Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections, flipping the House, picking up hundreds of state legislative seats, and laying the groundwork for over a decade of political dominance.
“Now [Democrats] have the sitting state senator saying that Trump’s bill is bad, so that will give them the opportunity to bring this message of ‘Look, this is what Republicans were willing to do, cut Medicaid, which is closing a rural hospital, at the expense of giving billionaires and millionaires a tax break,’” Wilson explained. “That’s a good message to run on.”
So far, only former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel has officially declared, but strategists say if Cooper stays out, others like Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt or Attorney General Jeff Jackson could quickly enter the race.
“We don’t know yet if the Democratic field will be messy. If Roy Cooper announces he’s going to run, it clears the field that day,” Cooper, the political science professor, explained. “If he announces he’s not running, it’s going to be a battle for which primary is more chaotic.”
THOM TILLIS ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT AFTER OPPOSING TRUMP TAX BILL
Cooper, an expert in American politics with a focus on state and local races, believes Democrats are in a slightly better position to win North Carolina after Tillis’s retirement, but the broader fight for Senate control remains a steep challenge. To flip the chamber, he noted, they must defend every seat in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan and flip GOP-held states, including red strongholds like Texas.
“I think it’s still an uphill battle for the Democrats. If it’s about winning this seat, they’re probably in slightly better shape today than they were yesterday,” he said.
