A new pair of polls show that with just 23 days left until Election Day, former President Donald Trump has a comfortable lead in Arizona, and Vice President Kamala Harris is narrowly winning in Pennsylvania.
The two battleground state polls from the New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College demonstrate that the election’s final stretch presents distinct challenges for both candidates as they seek to persuade voters to turn out at the polls.
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Harris is leading Trump in Pennsylvania, a state that is the crown jewel for winning the White House, 50% to 47%, which falls within the survey’s margin of error.
Meanwhile, in the sunbelt battleground state of Arizona, Trump leads Harris 51% to 46%, which is roughly in line with the survey’s results from September when he led the vice president 50% to 45%.
Since replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, Harris has ridden a wave of enthusiasm to break unprecedented fundraising records and unite the party around her campaign. Yet, voter malaise over the economy and the immigration crisis has helped Trump maintain an edge in Arizona, the only border battleground state.
According to a RealClearPolitics polling average in the Grand Canyon State, Trump leads Harris by one point, 48.4% to 47.4%.
The former president is expected to campaign in Arizona on Sunday at the Findlay Toyota Arena, where he will likely attack Harris over the border and the economy. The vice president and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), appeared in the state this week as early voting began, as did Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH).
In the Keystone State, Harris’s slight lead was boosted by her abortion stance, which gave her a roughly 20-point lead and is the second most important concern for voters, according to the survey. Trump has an 11-point lead on the economy in the state, an increase of four points since the poll was conducted in September.
Pennsylvania is the most important battleground state with its 19 electoral votes. The state has seen $163.4 million in presidential ad spending from Democrats and $125.4 million in ad spending from Republicans since July 22, the day after Biden suspended his campaign, according to AdImpact.
Aired Presidential spending in these states since 7/22:#PAPol:
$163.4m
$125.4m#MIPol:
Future Presidential reservations:#PAPol:
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) October 9, 2024
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The state still remains a toss-up, according to several other polls. A RealClearPolitics polling average of Pennsylvania shows Trump leading Harris by a sliver, 48.2% to 48.1%.
In an effort to galvanize supporters in the state, former President Barack Obama campaigned in Pittsburgh, where he claimed, “Kamala is as prepared for the job as any nominee for president has ever been.”
