The Virginia governor’s race, one of two nationwide that occur this year, remains a tie, opening the door to incoming President-elect Donald Trump to play a dominating role.
The latest Emerson College Polling/the Hill results just released have Democrat Abigail Spanberger edging Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 42% to 41%. The margin of error is plus or minus three points.
Earle-Sears and the former House member have been locked in a tie for months.
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That could give Trump a chance to influence the race this year. The commonwealth was firmly Democratic until Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin won in 2021. Virginia does not allow governors to serve consecutive terms, effectively term-limiting them to one.
Both Trump and Youngkin are popular in Virginia, and they should have a big influence in the November election, especially if the economy — the No. 1 issue with commonwealth voters — improves.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that there are notable demographics in the survey.
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For example, Earle-Sears, the first black woman to be Virginia’s lieutenant governor, is winning white voters while Spanberger is up among women.
“Ten months before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race is tight overall but with clear demographic differences standing out,” said Kimball. “Support for Earle-Sears is found among male voters, who break for the Lieutenant Governor 52% to 37%, and white voters, who break for her 50% to 35%. Spanberger leads among women, 47% to 31%, and both older and young voters: those over 70, who break for Spanberger 46% to 43%, and those under 30, who break for her 43% to 33%.”
