A singular electoral college vote in Nebraska is fueling bitter Democratic divisions in the quest to flip a battleground House district, prompting accusations that a candidate vowing to preserve the state’s so-called “Blue Dot” is the one jeopardizing it and misleading voters.
The Omaha-area Blue Dot, which symbolizes the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District’s status as a Democratic anomaly carried by Kamala Harris in a ruby red state that awards electoral votes on a district-by-district basis, has become a flashpoint in the Democratic primary for the seat held by retiring centrist Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE).
State Sen. John Cavanaugh, a leading Democratic contender, insists in his rhetoric and campaign materials that he’s the “only candidate” who can “protect our Blue Dot,” a claim that opponents say is dishonest and deceitful by omitting that his victory could cause the enclave of Democratic-leaning voters to be swallowed in a sea of red. If he is elected, Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) could pick a Republican to replace Cavanaugh in the Nebraska Legislature for the next two years, diminishing state Democrats’ ability to filibuster longtime GOP efforts to change the law to a traditional winner-take-all format.
“John is the only candidate with a proven record of standing up to Donald Trump and MAGA extremists to lower taxes on working families, block a total abortion ban, and protect our Blue Dot,” Cavanaugh states on his campaign website.
A recent campaign ad says Cavanaugh “stands up to anyone to do what’s right — paid sick leave and fair wages, protect reproductive care, and secure our Blue Dot.” On his website, he offers two versions of lawn signs that supporters can request, one of which includes the slogan “Stand up to Trump, Defend the Blue Dot.”
Cavanaugh did not respond to questions about how his candidacy might risk the prominent campaign issue he’s vowing to safeguard.
He’s previously made the case that Democrats will win more state seats in the November midterms to offset the scenario in which a Republican fills his seat. Republicans hold a 33-16 supermajority in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature that is technically nonpartisan, the only one of its kind in the nation.
Under the current configuration, Democrats only need the support of one wavering Republican to block legislation they oppose via filibuster. The parliamentary procedure and defections have helped Democrats defeat a six-week abortion ban, lowering the state’s minimum wage, and ending Nebraska’s district-by-district Electoral College formula.
With a Republican likely to be appointed by the governor, that leverage could become hard to wield if not impossible. Although Cavanaugh’s state legislature seat is heavily Democratic and the appointment would only be for two years, Republicans will likely use such an opportunity to try again to change the state’s Electoral College apportionment system.
Democrats at the state and national levels fear repercussions as presidential elections are increasingly decided on razor-thin margins. And from the campaign trail to coffee shops, Cavanaugh’s critics are skeptical of his argument.
A national Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, panned Cavanaugh as a “useful idiot for the GOP.”
“Putting his political ambition first and jeopardizing our path to 270 isn’t only craven, it represents the type of self-serving politics voters despise,” they said.
Denise Powell, a political organizer and another leading Democratic candidate, accuses Cavanaugh of “jeopardizing the Blue Dot Democrats fought so hard to save in 2024 and is putting his personal political ambitions ahead of stopping Donald Trump.”
Another Democratic opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades, says Cavanaugh would put the Blue Dot and abortion rights at risk. Her campaign site says he’s “putting his personal ambitions ahead of keeping our Blue Dot and the health and freedom of Nebraska women.”
At a coffee shop in Omaha’s historic Dundee neighborhood sat anti-Cavanaugh flyers saying his candidacy was “not to protect the Blue Dot” but was instead for his “ego,” according to a photo recently obtained by the Washington Examiner.
Cavanaugh is backed by national liberal heavyweights, with endorsements from Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Ro Khanna (D-CA), and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), as well as the Congressional Progressive Caucus’s political fundraising arm.
HOW A SINGLE BLUE DOT SIGN EXPLODED INTO A MOVEMENT AT CENTER OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Nonpartisan election forecasters give Democrats a slight edge to flip the competitive seat that the party considers critical to reclaiming the House in the midterms.
On the Republican side, Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding is the presumptive GOP nominee for the seat that Bacon has narrowly held since 2017. But former President Joe Biden and Harris each managed to carry the district and its one electoral college vote, leaving Democrats optimistic that Bacon’s retirement will aid them in their yearslong quest to reinforce the Blue Dot’s namesake.
