There was some shock at the outcome of last week’s election.
But when it comes to control of the House and Senate, things generally landed in the range anticipated by many learned observers.
There was a high probability of a Republican Senate – with the GOP likely having a seat or two to cushion a majority.
The House of Representatives was expected to be close. The forecast was that the House breakdown would probably reflect the split between the majority and minority today. The only question was which party would be in the majority. And there was a high likelihood that control of the House would mirror the outcome of the Presidential election.
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You know the rest.
The House is close, likely in Republican hands. When everything is settled, Republicans will likely have between 221-223 seats. The Senate moved to the GOP – with a few pickups.
So say what you will about the Presidential election. But very few predictions about the House and Senate were off.
In the Senate, the map always favored Republicans. The GOP would probably score an immediate pickup with Sen.-elect Jim Justice, R-W.V., claiming the seat of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.V., who caucused with the Democrats.
Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Jon Tester, D-Mont., were the most-endangered Democrats up this cycle. Both represented states which heavily supported President-elect Trump. But Brown and Tester consistently proved they could win their races in challenging environments. Plus, there was something else going for them: Brown and Tester always appearing on the ballot in Democratic years: 2006, 2012 and 2018.
Democrats won the House and Senate in 2006. That was the “six-year itch” election for President George W. Bush. The second midterm is often brutal for the party of the president in Congress. Voters returned former President Obama to the White House in 2012. Democrats won the House in 2018.
2024? Not a good year for Democrats.
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In Ohio, it appears that Mr. Trump won the Buckeye State by a staggering 11 points.
It was always believed that Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, would run behind Mr. Trump and that the President-elect needed to carry Ohio by about 10 points to unseat Brown. Moreno wound up toppling Brown by four points.
Sen.-elect Dave McCormick, R-Penn., appears to have unseated Sen. Bob Casey, D-Penn. The underperformance of Vice President Harris in the Keystone State really harmed Democrats like Casey. Harris lost Pennsylvania by about two points. Something else about Casey? Like Brown and Tester, he was on the same election cycle: 2006, 2012, 2018 and 2024. Democrats would have a fighting chance at flipping the House had they performed better in Pennsylvania. They failed to unseat former Freedom Caucus Chairman Rep. Scott Perry, R-Penn. Meantime, GOP challengers defeated Reps. Susan Wild, D-Penn., and Matt Cartwright, D-Penn. Democrats needed to knock off Perry and hold those seats to claim the House.
Despite being in the same boat as Brown, Tester and Casey, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., prevailed in a battleground state captured by Mr. Trump. Rep. and Sen.-elect Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., also won in a state carried by the incoming President.
In the House, Democrats clung to several key seats they needed in order to flip the House. Rep.-elect Eugene Vindman, D-Va., defeated Republican Derrick Anderson in central Virginia. Reps. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio is on track to hold her seat. And Emilia Sykes, D-Ohio, won – despite Brown’s loss and the blowout of the President-elect.
Freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M, won re-election, vanquishing former Rep. Yvette Herrell, R-N.M., in what has been the swingiest district in the country. Vasquez’s district in southern New Mexico has toggled between the parties in each election since 2016. Democrat Janelle Bynum is leading Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer, R-Ore. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., topped Republican Joe Kent. Gluesenkamp Perez was the surprise winner of all House races in 2022.
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During an interview with colleague Bret Baier, Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., cited how moderates like Gluesenkamp Perez ran campaigns to fit their districts and scored reelection.
“In Marie’s case, she was criticized by the Washington state Democratic party for some of her votes and some of the positions she has taken. They threatened her with a primary. And then she went out there and won in a Trump plus-six district,” said Smith.
Smith added that fellow Democrats “should learn a lot from” the likes of Gluesenkamp Perez, Reps. Don Davis, D-N.C., Pat Ryan, D-N.Y. and Vasquez.
In other words, Democrats seemed to do many of the things necessary to gain control of the House.
But not enough.
Take California.
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It was thought that Vice President Harris atop of the ticket could help Democrats flip five or six seats in the Golden State alone. Harris is the state’s former Attorney General and U.S. senator.
No dice.
Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., prevailed in her race. Reps. David Valadao, R-Calif., Ken Calvert, R-Calif., Michelle Steel, R-Calif., and John Duarte, R-Calif., are all poised to hold their seats. Things remain close between Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., and Democratic challenger George Whitesides. The same with Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh in the state’s 47th Congressional district. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., vacated that seat in her unsuccessful quest for the Senate.
“These are areas that have been Democrat strongholds, and we’re within that fraction of a percentage of taking two more. So the voter shift was significant in a deep blue state. Let’s not kid ourselves. We are a deep blue state. But the shift is significant,” said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., on Fox Business.
The current breakdown in the House is as follows:
432 members. 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats. There are three vacancies: Late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., and Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., died. Former Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc. resigned. These seats are partisan districts. So in reality with 435 members, the breakdown should probably be 221 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
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When all is said and done, campaigns will have exhausted several billion dollars on House races. And the results: likely the same as where things stand now. A probable Republican majority within a seat or two of the present breakdown.
Let’s say just for the sake of argument it is 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats. With a margin of seven votes, Republicans can only lose three votes on their side before needing help from Democrats to pass bills. That is precisely the same problem which bedeviled the Republican majority for the past two years. It’s a problem to pass anything with more than a few defectors – or if one or two Republicans are absent. As I always say, you try to get 435 people in the same room at the same time.
For Republicans, a solid victory by President-elect Trump will likely impose party discipline for many of his legislative initiatives. But what happens when the GOP tries to advance tax reform – and budget hawks balk because it explodes the deficit? Or if New York Republicans demand a restoration of the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT?
Republicans likely have 53 seats in the Senate. But that’s a far cry from 60 votes needed to break a filibuster. And while 53 is a lot better than the 51 Democrats had in this Congress, don’t forget that Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, sometimes bucked the Trump Administration the last time.
These are the possible headaches which could hinder the GOP when it comes to governing. Republicans are more aligned now than they were when President-elect Trump entered office in 2017. But it’s always about the math on Capitol Hill. And the parliamentary algebra presents some challenging equations that Republicans must solve to implement their policies in the 119th Congress.
