Democrat James Talarico heads into the final two weeks of his pivotal Texas Senate race after months of working to close an enthusiasm gap with black voters, a key voting bloc that could complicate his path to victory in much the same way GOP rival Ken Paxton is struggling to unite the Right.
Talarico has made crucial headway to minimize what used to be nearly a third of black voters who said months ago they did not plan to support the state representative, but recent polling suggests he still lacks backing from 15%-20% of the cohort that overwhelmingly tends to side with Democrats.
A pair of surveys conducted in recent weeks showed Talarico with 85% and 83% of black voters, while Paxton clocked in at 10% and 17%, respectively.
The results show the lingering side effect of the contentious primary between Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) and the continued tensions between the two. Crockett has not campaigned for Talarico, and her PAC did not endorse him despite her doing so.
“She has failed to kind of support him in any way,” said Texas-based Debra Stark-Howard, who works with the nonpartisan John Lewis Voter Coalition of Hidalgo County but spoke in her personal capacity. “She’s focused on other races where African Americans are involved. I think she’s been very cold towards him.”
Crockett, accused by fellow Democrats of insufficiently using her platform to boost Talarico, particularly with black Texans, insisted she is doing more to help him by campaigning instead for downballot candidates.
“I’ve endorsed him 100 times,” she told the Houston Chronicle. “If I can use a little bit of my star power, if you like to call it that, to highlight them and to amplify them, hopefully it will get people to vote downballot. … The top of the ticket is going to benefit, too, because you got to them before you can ever get to these other candidates.”
Although still room for improvement with black Texans, Talarico has made significant strides since losing much of the vote to Crockett. And he leads Paxton by 2.2 points in the RealClearPolitics national average.
The Talarico campaign suggested the polls showed strong support among black voters and noted that previous surveys, such as one last month, have him with even higher backing at 91%. In 2024, Democratic nominee Colin Allred, who is black, received 84% of the black vote to Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) 12%, according to exit polls, putting Talarico on pace to match or exceed Allred’s vote share.
But Allred lost to Cruz by 8.6 points. Each vote matters all that much more in a contest where Talarico is seeking to make history as the first Democrat to win a statewide race in the Lone Star State since 1994.
As for Paxton, his vote share with black Texans is certainly nothing to brag about. Chaplain Richmond Stoglin, a 2024 Texas GOP delegate to the Republican National Committee and president of a black Republican group, characterized the state attorney general’s outreach to black voters as a “mixed bag.”
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<p> ” data-large-file=”https://conservativemodern.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/talarico-has-made-strides-to-lock-down-black-voters-they-could-still-cost-him-the-texas-senate-race.webp” src=”https://conservativemodern.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/talarico-has-made-strides-to-lock-down-black-voters-they-could-still-cost-him-the-texas-senate-race.webp” alt=”Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks during a campaign event” class=”wp-image-4773204″ srcset=”https://conservativemodern.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/talarico-has-made-strides-to-lock-down-black-voters-they-could-still-cost-him-the-texas-senate-race.webp 1024w, https://conservativemodern.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/talarico-has-made-strides-to-lock-down-black-voters-they-could-still-cost-him-the-texas-senate-race.webp?resize=300,200 300w, https://conservativemodern.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/talarico-has-made-strides-to-lock-down-black-voters-they-could-still-cost-him-the-texas-senate-race.webp?resize=768,512 768w” sizes=”(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px”><figcaption class=)
Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks during a campaign event on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026, in San Marcos, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)“There still has to be room for Republicans to talk to black Republicans,” Stoglin said in an interview. “We lack energy in that area. I think Mr. Ken Paxton is trying to do that, but we have got to do better. I think he’s a great candidate, considering the choices are Ken Paxton or Talarico.”
Talarico’s efforts targeting the community appear to have paid dividends in the form of a nearly 20-point bump in the polls since the summer. In addition to engaging with black media programs, hiring black operatives, and tailoring get-out-the-vote efforts toward black voters, his campaign last month launched a $25 million “Souls to the Polls” initiative to connect with black churches across Texas.
TALARICO’S TEXAS-SIZED OPENING: PAXTON CAN’T UNITE REPUBLICAN VOTE
Stoglin suggested some of Talarico’s more liberal cultural stances, including former positions on transgender issues that the Democrat has mostly walked back, present an insurmountable hurdle for black churchgoers.
“He sees nothing wrong with those boys in girls’ sports,” Stoglin said of Talarico, who has reversed his position to oppose transgender athletes in girls’ sports “if it risks safety or fairness.” “That’s the very antithesis of black Americans, who still, according to many polls, are the most religious and consistent Christians and churchgoers in the country.”
