Stop Lying To Me About Trump’s Tariffs

Can people please stop talking complete, unmitigated claptrap on the subject of President Donald Trump, Mexican tariffs, and the U.S. economy? Is it really too much to ask?

The panic over the last few days about possible Mexican tariffs is even more ridiculous than the panic we had last month about the China tariffs — and that was bad enough.

Trump’s new tariff threat will send prices soaring for U.S. households, say the doomsayers. They’ll cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. They’ll crash the stock market. They’ll crash the economy.

Really? No doubt this is why the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.60% plunged 350 points in a panic on Friday. And the Dow’s performance since then through Wednesday? Up around 600 points.

Trump-endorsed candidate will face top GOP target in Nevada House district

Gaming-world veteran who ripped ‘woke’ culture scores Trump-backed battleground primary win

BREAKING: Karmelo Anthony Prison Sentence Announced, Roughly 4 Hours After Guilty Verdict Read

Trump administration to offer ‘premium’ expedited visa interviews for $750

Billionare Tom Steyer ends California governor campaign after falling short in Jungle Primary

Nick Reiner, Charged with Murdering His Parents, Demands Access to $1.5 Million Inheritance

GOP Finally Defeat Democrats, Pass Bill to Fund ICE, Border Patrol for Years to Come

The Left Has the Most Predictable Reaction to Knicks Losing NBA Finals Game in NYC: It’s Trump’s Fault!

Trump-backed Hilton advances to California governor general election

WATCH: As Fraud Accusations Swirl, Nick Shirley Confronts ‘126 Year-Old’ Who Voted in 51 Elections, According to California Sec. of State

Fetterman refuses to defend Platner, calls him ‘baggage’ as scandals mount

ALERT: Trump Launches Strikes After Iran Downed Apache, Fulfilling His Promise to Respond

Riots consume Belfast over attempted beheading by Sudanese immigrant

LISTEN: Brian Hooker’s own words appear to place him in the water the night missing wife vanished in Bahamas

Cornyn won’t campaign for Paxton in Texas Senate race against Talarico

The Standard & Poor’s 500 SPX, +0.54% is now higher than it was last Thursday, just before Trump shook his little fist at the Mexicans. And it’s not just the popular stocks such as Apple AAPL, +1.09% Netflix NFLX, +0.13% , and TSLA, +4.54% U.S. industrial stocks — as measured by the S&P 1500 Industrials index — are up 3%. The stocks of automobile components companies are up almost 5%. Small company stocks, often a useful barometer for the domestic, Main Street economy, are up about 1.5%, whether measured by the broad Russell 2000 RUT, -0.49% or the narrower, higher-quality S&P 600 index SML, -0.63% .

Sure, a few days’ stock market action doesn’t mean much long term. And the stock market isn’t America. But then again, apparently it was an Infallible Omen of Doom when the stock market fell on Friday. You see how that works?

Whether or not these tariffs are a sensible policy is another matter. But anyone claiming they will cost households a small fortune and wipe out vast numbers of jobs is relying on some heroic assumptions. Or, as non-economists call them: guesses.

U.S. imports from Mexico came to $372 billion last year, according to the federal government. So slapping a 5% tariff on them amounts to a federal tax hike of… er… $19 billion. Total federal taxes last year: $3.3 trillion. So we’re talking about a 0.6% tax hike.

But the Mexican peso USDMXN, +0.4490% has already reacted. It has weakened by 2.7% against the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.30% in a few days — wiping out more than half of that cost increase.