Stop Lying To Me About Trump’s Tariffs

Can people please stop talking complete, unmitigated claptrap on the subject of President Donald Trump, Mexican tariffs, and the U.S. economy? Is it really too much to ask?

The panic over the last few days about possible Mexican tariffs is even more ridiculous than the panic we had last month about the China tariffs — and that was bad enough.

Trump’s new tariff threat will send prices soaring for U.S. households, say the doomsayers. They’ll cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. They’ll crash the stock market. They’ll crash the economy.

Really? No doubt this is why the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.60% plunged 350 points in a panic on Friday. And the Dow’s performance since then through Wednesday? Up around 600 points.

Fox News Poll: Democratic unity, Republican crossovers shape Ohio Senate race

Rubio warns risk of escalation in Russia-Ukraine war is ‘more real than it was two years ago’

Video: WNBA Punishes Brittney Griner for Manhandling Angel Reese in On-Court Clash

Former primary rival resurfaces to challenge scandal-plagued Graham Platner in Maine Senate race

‘A Lot of Complaints Had Been Made’: Henry Nowak’s Murderer Was Known to Cops, Had Been Arrested Previously, Never Charged

Detective arrested after allegedly pulling gun on fellow officer for microwaving fish at police station

Cold case of missing news anchor rocked by claim of confession in roadside meltdown: report

LATE BREAKING: ’60 Minutes’ Star Reporter Scott Pelley Fired After Mouthing Off to New Boss Chosen by Bari Weiss

WATCH: Rubio scorches claim Trump weighed finances in Iran decisions: ‘Not even for a millisecond’

Sex criminals, gang members abused child immigration program to enter US, DHS reveals

BREAKING VIDEO: UK Police Retreat as Brits Furious About Murder of Henry Nowak Take to Streets, Pelt Cops with Enormous Garbage Cans

Bessent clarifies threat against Bill Pulte: He said he was going to ‘kick his a**’

Aid group warns Ebola could have spread for three months before first cases were detected

Rubio grilled over Trump’s national security picks and foreign policy priorities: ‘It’s not funny, secretary’

Judge with intimate ties to Dem Party’s key Russia Hoax players behind latest anti-Trump decision

The Standard & Poor’s 500 SPX, +0.54% is now higher than it was last Thursday, just before Trump shook his little fist at the Mexicans. And it’s not just the popular stocks such as Apple AAPL, +1.09% Netflix NFLX, +0.13% , and TSLA, +4.54% U.S. industrial stocks — as measured by the S&P 1500 Industrials index — are up 3%. The stocks of automobile components companies are up almost 5%. Small company stocks, often a useful barometer for the domestic, Main Street economy, are up about 1.5%, whether measured by the broad Russell 2000 RUT, -0.49% or the narrower, higher-quality S&P 600 index SML, -0.63% .

Sure, a few days’ stock market action doesn’t mean much long term. And the stock market isn’t America. But then again, apparently it was an Infallible Omen of Doom when the stock market fell on Friday. You see how that works?

Whether or not these tariffs are a sensible policy is another matter. But anyone claiming they will cost households a small fortune and wipe out vast numbers of jobs is relying on some heroic assumptions. Or, as non-economists call them: guesses.

U.S. imports from Mexico came to $372 billion last year, according to the federal government. So slapping a 5% tariff on them amounts to a federal tax hike of… er… $19 billion. Total federal taxes last year: $3.3 trillion. So we’re talking about a 0.6% tax hike.

But the Mexican peso USDMXN, +0.4490% has already reacted. It has weakened by 2.7% against the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.30% in a few days — wiping out more than half of that cost increase.