Stop Lying To Me About Trump’s Tariffs

Can people please stop talking complete, unmitigated claptrap on the subject of President Donald Trump, Mexican tariffs, and the U.S. economy? Is it really too much to ask?

The panic over the last few days about possible Mexican tariffs is even more ridiculous than the panic we had last month about the China tariffs — and that was bad enough.

Trump’s new tariff threat will send prices soaring for U.S. households, say the doomsayers. They’ll cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. They’ll crash the stock market. They’ll crash the economy.

Really? No doubt this is why the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.60% plunged 350 points in a panic on Friday. And the Dow’s performance since then through Wednesday? Up around 600 points.

Battleground Dem candidate linked public displays of faith to political violence in 2023 speech

Fetterman tells far-left prosecutor to ‘lighten up’ after threatening to arrest ICE agents over raids

FTC commissioner likens American Bar Association to ‘communist party’ over far-left advocacy

NHL’s Nashville Predators Unveil New LGBT Logo, and It Doesn’t Land the Way They Hoped

Just In: Trump’s Legacy Will Now Appear on All New US Currency

Sorely needed US housing supply expansion may run through 3D printed homes

Israel has recognized Somaliland. Will the US follow?

Cruz says Trump’s move to strike Iran ‘most consequential decision’ of his presidency

Helicopter crashes into ocean off Hawaii coast, leaving multiple dead and injured

DHS shutdown breakthrough comes at cost for Republicans as funding fights nears end

New Jersey middle school teacher charged with child sex assault after alleged sexual relationship with student

Appeals court pauses orders limiting federal agents’ use of tear gas at protests near Portland ICE building

United jet dodges Black Hawk in last-second maneuver over California airport: ‘That was not good’

DHS arrests 5 illegal immigrants convicted of violent crimes including manslaughter, child assault

BREAKING: Trump Ends DHS Payment Freeze Without Congress, Issues Immediate Orders to New DHS Sec. Markwayne Mullin

The Standard & Poor’s 500 SPX, +0.54% is now higher than it was last Thursday, just before Trump shook his little fist at the Mexicans. And it’s not just the popular stocks such as Apple AAPL, +1.09% Netflix NFLX, +0.13% , and TSLA, +4.54% U.S. industrial stocks — as measured by the S&P 1500 Industrials index — are up 3%. The stocks of automobile components companies are up almost 5%. Small company stocks, often a useful barometer for the domestic, Main Street economy, are up about 1.5%, whether measured by the broad Russell 2000 RUT, -0.49% or the narrower, higher-quality S&P 600 index SML, -0.63% .

Sure, a few days’ stock market action doesn’t mean much long term. And the stock market isn’t America. But then again, apparently it was an Infallible Omen of Doom when the stock market fell on Friday. You see how that works?

Whether or not these tariffs are a sensible policy is another matter. But anyone claiming they will cost households a small fortune and wipe out vast numbers of jobs is relying on some heroic assumptions. Or, as non-economists call them: guesses.

U.S. imports from Mexico came to $372 billion last year, according to the federal government. So slapping a 5% tariff on them amounts to a federal tax hike of… er… $19 billion. Total federal taxes last year: $3.3 trillion. So we’re talking about a 0.6% tax hike.

But the Mexican peso USDMXN, +0.4490% has already reacted. It has weakened by 2.7% against the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.30% in a few days — wiping out more than half of that cost increase.