Stop Lying To Me About Trump’s Tariffs

Can people please stop talking complete, unmitigated claptrap on the subject of President Donald Trump, Mexican tariffs, and the U.S. economy? Is it really too much to ask?

The panic over the last few days about possible Mexican tariffs is even more ridiculous than the panic we had last month about the China tariffs — and that was bad enough.

Trump’s new tariff threat will send prices soaring for U.S. households, say the doomsayers. They’ll cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. They’ll crash the stock market. They’ll crash the economy.

Really? No doubt this is why the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.60% plunged 350 points in a panic on Friday. And the Dow’s performance since then through Wednesday? Up around 600 points.

College basketball player gunned down on Nashville freeway, police hunting for suspects

‘Dilbert’ Creator and Right-Wing Commentator Scott Adams Dies at Age 68

Iran goes dark as regime unleashes force, cyber tools to crush protests

Afghan illegal immigrant who stabbed sister for being ‘bad Muslim girl’ arrested by ICE agents in New York

Lawmakers warn Philly officials against prosecuting ICE agents: ‘That’s not how America works’

Republican Congressman Forced to Close Office After ‘Credible Threats and Calls for Violence’

Newsom blasts proposed California billionaire tax but keeps door open to national debate

BREAKING: Republican House Oversight Committee to Hold Bill Clinton in Contempt

Watch: Whoopi Goldberg Attempts to Walk Back Vicious Anti-ICE Comment After Thinking It Over During Commercial Break

Trump cheers steady inflation numbers as affordability fight shapes 2026 midterm battle

GOP unveils plan to cut deficit by $1 trillion with second ‘big, beautiful bill’

Byron Donalds took large donations from CCP-linked firm despite criticism of China

Trump cancels talks with Iran delegation as death toll from protests hits 2,000

BREAKING: Trump Steps Into Iran Crisis With Direct Message to Protesters: ‘Help is on the Way’

Breaking: Positive Inflation Report Delivers Economic Win for Trump

The Standard & Poor’s 500 SPX, +0.54% is now higher than it was last Thursday, just before Trump shook his little fist at the Mexicans. And it’s not just the popular stocks such as Apple AAPL, +1.09% Netflix NFLX, +0.13% , and TSLA, +4.54% U.S. industrial stocks — as measured by the S&P 1500 Industrials index — are up 3%. The stocks of automobile components companies are up almost 5%. Small company stocks, often a useful barometer for the domestic, Main Street economy, are up about 1.5%, whether measured by the broad Russell 2000 RUT, -0.49% or the narrower, higher-quality S&P 600 index SML, -0.63% .

Sure, a few days’ stock market action doesn’t mean much long term. And the stock market isn’t America. But then again, apparently it was an Infallible Omen of Doom when the stock market fell on Friday. You see how that works?

Whether or not these tariffs are a sensible policy is another matter. But anyone claiming they will cost households a small fortune and wipe out vast numbers of jobs is relying on some heroic assumptions. Or, as non-economists call them: guesses.

U.S. imports from Mexico came to $372 billion last year, according to the federal government. So slapping a 5% tariff on them amounts to a federal tax hike of… er… $19 billion. Total federal taxes last year: $3.3 trillion. So we’re talking about a 0.6% tax hike.

But the Mexican peso USDMXN, +0.4490% has already reacted. It has weakened by 2.7% against the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.30% in a few days — wiping out more than half of that cost increase.