Senate Republicans are attempting to include a debt ceiling hike in their sweeping tax and border bill, a move that would cut Democrats out of the equation amid a progressive revolt against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
Republicans see the price of negotiating with their colleagues across the aisle as too high after Schumer retreated in a fight to avert a government shutdown earlier this month. The makings of a bipartisan deal were there as Republicans considered concessions like wildfire aid, but Democrats are under immense grassroots pressure not to hand President Donald Trump a win.
“I think it’d be better if we could do it with Republican votes on reconciliation,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), an adviser to Senate GOP leadership, told the Washington Examiner. “If we don’t, the negotiations with the Democrats are going to be disastrous. Their price tag is going to be probably too high.”
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY) revealed that Trump was supportive of handling the debt ceiling as part of reconciliation, a legislative process that allows Republicans to sidestep the filibuster. He told reporters on Tuesday it was a topic of discussion in a meeting last week at the White House, while congressional leaders emerged from a follow-up meeting with the Trump administration on Tuesday confirming they were moving in that direction.
The House reconciliation blueprint already includes a $4 trillion hike in the debt ceiling in exchange for at least $1.5 trillion in cuts demanded by hard-line conservatives, but it is not yet clear that Senate Republicans can deliver the votes in a chamber they control 53-47.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is an automatic “no” on reconciliation if the borrowing limit is included, while other fiscal hawks are keeping their powder dry until they see the level of cuts included.
“I want to see that we’re serious about reining in debt, and there’s lots of ways we can get there,” Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) said. “Debt ceiling becomes a leverage point.”
Reforms to Medicaid are one possible avenue, with the House blueprint mandating a level of cuts that almost ensures the social safety net will be rolled back in some form. But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) stands to lose votes in the other direction if he cuts too deeply.
Many Senate Republicans represent states with a large share of Medicaid recipients.
Thune is eyeing a floor vote on a budget framework that allows both chambers to start drafting the legislation before the Easter recess, slated to begin the week of April 14, as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) urges the Senate to move more quickly on reconciliation.
The inclusion of the debt ceiling would align the two chambers further, with Johnson telling reporters after Tuesday’s meeting at the White House that it seemed like the Senate was “coming around” to the House’s position.
“We’ve been saying that since the very beginning,” Johnson said of including the debt ceiling in reconciliation.
The man who will lead the reconciliation process in the Senate, Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC), told the Washington Examiner he was “getting somewhat more optimistic” about including a debt ceiling hike but that it “depends how much we can cut.”
Trump has a love-hate relationship with the debt ceiling, which currently tops $36 trillion. As president-elect and president, he’s said the statutory threshold should either be eliminated or extended but previously urged Republicans to use it as a bargaining chip under Democratic presidents.
The matter is set to come to a head sometime in the summer, when the United States is likely to face a deadline for default known as the “X-date.”
If Republicans fail to cobble the votes needed to go it alone, they’ll have to return to a scenario in which Democrats could make steep demands. In the government funding fight, Democratic appropriators pressed for guardrails on Trump’s sweeping rollback of the federal government but ultimately acquiesced to a bill without concessions with hours until a shutdown deadline.
Schumer has faced calls to step down from progressives and some House Democrats, increasing the pressure on him to exact favorable terms in future congressional fights. The grassroots impulse, meanwhile, is not to cooperate with the GOP at all as Democrats accuse the Trump administration of illegal behavior.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), one of the 10 Democratic-caucusing senators who ultimately helped Republicans fund the government, indicated he’ll take a similar approach in supporting a debt ceiling hike. If it comes down to a stand-alone measure, he told the Washington Examiner that he’ll vote with Republicans.
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“I would never vote to default,” Fetterman said. “The damage — there’s no justification to push into default or shutting the government down. And if that falls entirely on the Senate and my caucus, I will be a guy that can ever vote for default or for shutting the government down.”
Fetterman added that he agreed with Democrats’ concerns over federal workforce cuts by the Trump administration and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency but that it’s not “an appropriate response to damage our government, our reputation, and to announce to the world that we are in default and we’re not paying our bills.”
