Just weeks into John E. Sununu‘s bid to reclaim his New Hampshire Senate seat from nearly two decades ago, there are early warning signs for the GOP front-runner despite an early lead over primary rival Scott Brown.
Sununu’s net favorability among Republican voters and lead in recent polling have declined since entering the contest last month as the party establishment’s prized recruit.
Meanwhile, Brown’s rise in favorability has been buoyed by more ideologically conservative voters, as the former Massachusetts GOP senator runs a grassroots-style campaign aligned with President Donald Trump.
The Granite State’s Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is expected to be among the most competitive contests in next year’s midterm elections. The victor of the GOP primary is likely to face Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), the presumptive Democratic nominee.
As part of an aggressive strategy to intervene in primaries this cycle, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm has made its preference for Sununu no secret, viewing him as a stronger opponent to Pappas due to his high name ID and record of winning statewide. Brown, the U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa in Trump’s first term, is making an appeal for his former boss’s coveted endorsement as he runs as an outsider taking on the establishment.
Sununu campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf cited endorsements from conservative advocacy group Americans for Prosperity Action and former New Hampshire Trump Senior Adviser Stephen Stepanek, among others, as evidence of Sununu being “a principled Republican and the only candidate who can defeat Pelosi Puppet Chris Pappas.”
“What polls show consistently is that John Sununu is tied with, and in position to defeat, Chris Pappas, and is winning the primary,” Schrimpf said in a statement, noting more than a half-dozen early Brown backers switched their endorsements to Sununu after launching his campaign.
In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Brown framed his candidacy as part of a long-standing contentious relationship with party leaders in Washington that predates his upset victory in a 2010 special election to replace the late Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy.
Brown, at the time a state senator, recalled a trip to Washington during the campaign for a donor event with other candidates that was held by the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. He was allegedly snubbed of an introduction “to meet all the money people” by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who at the time chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee. A source close to Cornyn denied the encounter ever occurred.
“I went up to him, I said, ‘You knew I was here, why didn’t you introduce me?’ He says, ‘Well, it’s the Kennedy seat. It’s Massachusetts. You’re never going to win,’” Brown claimed. “And I looked right at him, I said, ‘I’m going to effing win this race, and when I do, I don’t owe you guys anything.’”
Cornyn, who is still an adviser to leadership and served with Sununu and Brown, did not provide a comment. A source close to him said the alleged exchange “never happened” and that Cornyn and the NRSC that cycle “spent millions of dollars helping him get elected.” Cornyn has also contributed to Brown this year, the source added.
Cornyn was co-chair of a D.C. fundraiser for Sununu last week and is also in the midst of his own primary battle.
Brown went on to lose reelection in 2012 to now-Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and lost in New Hampshire to Shaheen in 2014.
Sununu, the brother of former New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, had a 12-year tenure in Congress, from 1997 to 2009, that included one Senate term. He lost reelection to the upper chamber in 2008 to Shaheen.
Brown works to capitalize on Sununu’s establishment energy
Separate surveys this month offer early but detailed windows into the state of a primary that won’t be decided until next September.
Sununu clocked in with a 9-point lead over Brown, 39% to 30%, among likely GOP primary voters in a Saint Anselm College poll, down from the double-digit lead he’s had in other surveys. Brown led Sununu among “very conservative” voters, 36% to 35%. In general election matchups against Pappas, Brown lost by 8 points, while Sununu lost by only 3.
In a University of New Hampshire poll, Sununu’s net favorability among likely GOP primary voters was +29, down from +37 in September, before he entered the race. Brown’s net favorability stood at +20, up from +8 in September. Brown trailed Sununu by 13 points, down from 23 points in September.
Jim Merrill, a veteran New Hampshire GOP operative, described Brown as contrasting Sununu’s “more curated” campaign schedule with more “traditional grassroots campaign elements” like sign-waving on street corners and local party meetings.
“The level of support from the Senate Caucus for Sununu is significant, and people have noticed,” Merrill said. “Brown is trying to turn that into energy for him with the grassroots.”
Bruce Breton, a Brown supporter and co-chair of Trump’s 2024 campaign in New Hampshire, sees Brown as a more loyal ally to the state party and the president over the past decade. He criticizes Sununu as someone relying on the coattails of his last name, alluding to a family political dynasty that also includes his father, John H. Sununu, a former New Hampshire governor.
“[Brown] works with us. He does sign waves, he does everything. He attends all the functions. He’s been attending functions since he left office,” Breton said in an interview. “I believe Sununu was a never-Trumper, and he’s not going to change. He just wants to get elected senator again.”
Both former senators had their own independent streaks during their times in office and were no strangers to voting across the aisle. What is perhaps among their few similarities, both men are also pitching themselves as free-thinkers who will be unafraid to buck their party when it best serves New Hampshire.
Sununu, in particular, has a track record of making negative statements about Trump, but during his campaign, he has said he would be an “effective advocate” in working with Trump.
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The campaign arm of Americans for Prosperity, which endorsed Sununu, said a “challenge” he faces in the primary is distinguishing himself from his brother, who’s known for his past fierce criticism of Trump. They see Sununu as a favorite for the general election and someone who will “focus on solutions rather than the partisanship and the political gamesmanship.”
“I think what’s most important is that we have a candidate in New Hampshire that has the ability to win this general election,” an official for American for Prosperity Action said in an interview. “I think that that’s the goal of all of the right-of-center coalition.”
