Russia has been noticeably absent in the Israel-Iran war, keeping its distance as President Donald Trump mulls strikes against Tehran.
Russia is one of Iran’s closest partners, a rarity for the Middle Eastern nation, which has been made an international pariah through decades of sanctions. Iran came to Russia’s aid in its war with Ukraine, playing a decisive role through supplying the model for its cheap and effective Shahed drones, which Russia has used to significant effect. Despite the warming relations between the two countries, the partnership’s weaknesses have been highlighted over the past week, with Russia failing to play a significant role in coming to Iran’s aid as crippling strikes from Israel batter it.
The reason for Russia’s failure to come to Tehran’s aid is multifaceted, revolving around its relationship with Israel, its preoccupation with its war in Ukraine, and the nature of its relationship with Iran.
Russia’s relationship with Iran spans decades, but it especially blossomed in the 2010s when their interests converged. A resurgent Russia found a natural ally in Iran through a mutual desire to counter U.S. influence and to save the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria when the country collapsed into civil war. As a RAND report noted, Russia’s energy and defense industry also found an able market in Iran with its isolated, large population and natural gas resources.
Russia’s isolation over the war in Ukraine has strengthened its ties with Iran. A RAND report quoting senior British diplomats describes Russia’s support for Tehran as involving “an unprecedented level of military and technical support” to advance Iranian weapons capabilities. This includes the provision of advanced fighter aircraft, air defense systems, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance tools, and cyber capabilities.
However, Russia has retained its historical relationship with Israel throughout it all. Despite its support for Tehran, Moscow has never been on board with its antagonism toward Israel. It has sought to walk a tightrope in being friends to both countries, a view reflected in Putin’s offer to mediate negotiations between them.
“Russia may serve as a mediator because we have good relations with both sides,” Middle East expert Ilya Vedeneyev told the Russian outlet Izvestia. “Our treaty with Iran does not imply that we must directly intervene on its side. Overall, the situation is destabilizing the region, the power balance has significantly changed over recent years and not in Iran’s favor. Relations with Israel are also important for Russia, so limiting participation to a facilitating role would be sufficient.”
Even while the Russia-Iran relationship improved over the past 15 years due to shared interests, several areas of contention within these issues have strained the partnership. In Syria, Russia preferred a stronger Assad government, while Iran had interests in keeping the central government weaker to boost the interests of its militias, including Hezbollah.
Iranian pride has been a recurring issue in the relationship, with Tehran weary of being viewed as a junior partner. The two suffered a public relations disaster in 2016 over Syria, when Iran briefly allowed Russian forces to use its Shahid Nojeh Air Base. The agreement quickly collapsed after Iranian officials accused Russia of publicizing its use of the base, with then-Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Deghan claiming Russia had exhibited a “show-off” attitude and acted “ungentlemanly.”
The two also suffer from historical distrust, as Iranians view Russia as a historical occupier, according to the RAND report. Iran perceives that Russia has previously used it as a bargaining chip in its dealings with the United States, ready to throw it aside when convenient.
The relationship has a transactional quality that harms the possibilities of a concrete alliance, a detail that has emerged to Iran’s detriment in the war.
Aside from Putin, opinion within Russia is divided. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov issued a harsh rebuke of Israel, praising Iran’s retaliations as a “completely logical, tactically correct decision.”
“And after ten years of provocations, after the terrorist operations of the Zionists to liquidate Iranian military and scientists, the Iranian authorities had to respond to the satanic aggression of Israel, a country that dreams of turning the entire Middle East into a lifeless desert,” Kadyrov said in a post on Telegram.
Russian military bloggers have been largely critical of Iran over its military failures, blaming its strategic miscalculations. The popular military blogger Rybar said Iran “has proven to be significantly weaker than its enemies in the long game” and lost “the fruits of the Qassem Soleimani era” by June.
“In principle, the Iranians have almost reached the limit of their capabilities, when each tough measure will lead to tougher consequences for themselves,” Rybar said. “And the national spirit will not replace production, guidance systems, and satellites.”
The chaos between Israel and Iran also has a silver lining for Russia. Fears around the conflict, particularly over the possible closing of the Strait of Hormuz, have increased oil prices, boosting Russia’s revenue.
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None of Iran’s high-profile allies, including China, have signaled they would intervene in the war through force. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has taken the opposite approach in aiding Israel in a defensive capacity while considering launching offensive strikes against Tehran.
Syria, a longtime ally of Iran until the collapse of the Assad regime, opened its airspace to Israel so the Jewish state can defend itself against Tehran’s retaliatory missile strikes.
