EXCLUSIVE — The retirement of Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is giving Republicans a glimmer of hope they can establish a foothold in Illinois politics and capture his Senate seat.
The party’s best chance? Many say it’s Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL).
Republicans see LaHood, 56, as an ideal candidate for a blue state. While supportive of President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, his centrist image and “downstate” connection make him an attractive option for the Republican Party as they seek to pad their majority in the Senate.
In a sit-down interview with the Washington Examiner, LaHood said he’s happy with his current job representing Illinois’s 16th congressional District. But he also didn’t shut the door on a Senate run, saying he’s “gotten a lot of encouragement” in his state and will decide “in the near future.”
“U.S. Senate seats don’t come open very often in the state of Illinois, maybe once every 20, 25 years,” LaHood said in his congressional office.
“I think people are craving for a Republican that can win statewide, particularly for the U.S. Senate, and so I’m taking a hard look at that,” he added.
It was not that long ago that a Republican represented Illinois in the Senate. One of its two seats was held by former Sen. Mark Kirk from 2010 to 2017, before he lost to Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). And Republicans insist that the state is still in play with Durbin’s retirement.
“Don’t let the blue map fool you,” said one senior Illinois Republican Party official, granted anonymity to discuss the GOP candidate field.
“The state is red. Republicans are hungry, we’re organized, and we’re fed up with the same old Democrat machines,” the official said.
But Illinois is generally regarded as safe for Democrats, owing in large part to its strongholds upstate: Chicago and surrounding counties such as Will, DuPage, and Cook. The rest of the state is largely made up of rural, Republican areas further south.
Part of Durbin’s success as a politician — he’s retiring in 2027 after three decades in the Senate — can be traced to his connections across Illinois. He is well-respected by southern Illinoisans, both Democratic and Republican, because he “paid a lot of attention to downstate issues,” said Robin Johnson, an Illinois strategist and Monmouth College adjunct professor.
Across his congressional career, Durbin helped expand air and highway access to the southern parts of Illinois and secure federal funding to bring jobs downstate, improve rural healthcare shortages, and provide disaster relief.
With his retirement, Johnson said there is a vacuum left that Republicans could exploit in a statewide race. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) is from Peoria, a downstate city and the same hometown as LaHood, while the two other declared Democratic candidates, Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL) and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton are either from or represent the Chicago metropolitan area.
“The concern is real for those of us downstate. … We’ve had at least one downstate U.S. senator going back to 1980,” Johnson said, noting the Democratic field could wind up dominated by Chicago-area politicians. “So that’s a potential issue to rally the Republican base in downstate Illinois.”
So far, Stratton is a formidable opponent who has already won statewide. She also has the backing of Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL) and likely his coffers. Pritzker is the heir to the Hyatt family fortune.
Krishnamoorthi, meanwhile, is a prolific fundraiser and boasts a considerable war chest of his own. Kelly is the former Illinois Democratic Party chairwoman and could benefit from state and local relationships she built during her tenure.
Durbin previously said that he doesn’t plan on endorsing in the Democratic primary, except in an “extreme case.”
So, is LaHood the candidate who can win for Republicans? The congressman holds several advantages: he’s young, a centrist, and can lean on wide name recognition.
His father, Republican Ray LaHood, served as the former transportation secretary under the Obama administration. He also spent seven terms as congressman for Illinois’s 18th District, which became the 16th during his son’s tenure.
The younger LaHood’s background as a prosecutor and work on the prominent House Intelligence Committee also makes him a well-rounded candidate, said GOP strategist Aaron Del Mar. Del Mar, the former co-chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, said in an interview he thinks LaHood checks the right boxes for the GOP.
“He certainly has the profile and the resume to really make an impact, and he presents incredibly well, too,” Del Mar said. “He’s certainly an America First congressman, but he doesn’t present as somebody that’s out of touch with the Illinois electorate.”
Del Mar is not predicting a contested GOP primary for the Senate seat, a trap the party has fallen into in the last few cycles. Many viable GOP candidates have recently been beaten out by conservative firebrands who go on to lose in the general election.
The strategist noted that even though someone like longtime Republican National Committeeman Richard Porter is stoking speculation of a Senate run, he does not anticipate LaHood or Porter standing in each other’s way.
“If Darin LaHood decides to run for Senate, he’s going to clear the field,” Del Mar said. “If he doesn’t run, Richard Porter will then clear the field, and the only candidates left are kind of fringe candidates that just don’t have any shot.”
The Washington Examiner reached out to Porter for comment.
The Illinois Republican Party official said a “lot of good names” are being thrown around, with several expected to be “stepping up to the plate,” but added, “LaHood probably does have the best chance.”
“We’re ready for a conservative that means business, so I want a fighter in there,” the official said. “I want someone [who’s] going to fight for us, and I think LaHood would be that person, truly.”
Lahood is not likely to rush into a bid. He told the Washington Examiner his father gave him life advice that “before you decide to run for anything … you got to make sure you have your family on board.”
“I’ve been fortunate to be born and raised in Peoria, Illinois,” LaHood said. “I’m a fourth-generation Peorian. … A lot of people come to Washington, D.C., and sometimes lose their way, or, you know, drink Potomac water, so to speak, and get lost. And I think that’s one thing that’s stuck with me, is never forgetting my roots in Illinois.”
Strategists agree that any Republican will face an uphill battle, as midterm elections historically favor the party not in the White House, and the seat is rated as safely Democratic by nonpartisan election forecasters.
Whether Republicans can win the race might come down to the Democratic nominee. Del Mar anticipates the Senate seat would be an easier pickup in a matchup against Stratton. LaHood appeals to the “Raja-type base,” so a contest between the Illinois Republican and Krishnamoorthi would be a harder pickup.
Success will also depend on whether the GOP can motivate its base to turn up at a time when the Democratic grassroots appears ready to turn out.
Illinois Republicans have been “crushed” in local elections since Trump’s victory in 2024, Del Mar said — a trend the party is facing in special elections from Iowa to Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
DURBIN RETIREMENT PAVES WAY FOR MORE COMBATIVE SENATE JUDICIARY PANEL
“Most of the electorate that were Republican were like, ‘Hey, we have all three. We have the White House, we have the Senate, we have Congress. Donald Trump won. We’re happy. We’re sitting home,’” Del Mar said. “There’s no incentive to come out and vote.”
But, he added, Durbin’s retirement gives Republicans one of those “few and far” between opportunities to fill an open seat. “So I think that we know that if we don’t get it taken care of now, that it might be another two decades before we have another opportunity. And I think that brings out voter excitement.”
