Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump and fierce critic of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), is emerging as a leading contender in California’s crowded gubernatorial race, where a roster of Democratic hopefuls has struggled to impress.
Bianco has pitched himself as the law-and-order conservative on a ticket jam-packed with candidates hoping to succeed Newsom, who will be termed out of office and is eyeing a 2028 presidential run.
A recent Berkeley-IGS poll has Bianco leading the pack with 13%, followed by former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter at 11%. The survey found that 44% of voters remain undecided on who should succeed Newsom.
“Now that Proposition 50 has passed, the candidates will need to seize the opportunity to get voters’ attention,” Eric Schickler, director of the Institute for Government Studies, said.
Porter has gotten the “attention” of voters, but for all the wrong reasons. She made national headlines after nearly storming out of a CBS interview and old footage of her berating a staffer surfaced.
“A botched interview is a gift that keeps on giving,” political analyst Steve Swatt said. “Katie Porter is trending backwards, and that is not what you want to do when you’re a candidate for governor or anything else.”
Democrats in the 2026 race had been forced to wait for Vice President Kamala Harris, who hinted for months that she may run, only to announce at the end of July she would not enter the race. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) also had name recognition and it was widely believed the Democratic Party would throw its support around him but he, too, decided to pass.
So far, there are 12 declared Democratic candidates and 11 declared Republican candidates.
California’s gubernatorial primary isn’t until June 2, which gives hopefuls eight months to lay out policy agendas and appeal to voter concerns.
“This race is as open as it gets — 40% of voters haven’t made up their minds, and no one’s cracked much beyond the mid-teens,” Adin Lenchner of Carroll Street Campaigns, told the Washington Examiner. “What people are craving is simple: someone who’s focused on them, who wants to make their lives a little better, who has their back. We’ve seen over and over again — in NJ, VA. PA, MA, and here in New York — that when candidates center their campaigns on affordability, rooted not in scarcity or shutdowns but in vision, investment, and safety, they can win.”
The problem for Democratic candidates in California is that to land the governor’s job they will have to work around all of the things Newsom ambitiously promised but never delivered on — like healthcare for all and affordable housing — when applying for the same position. California’s child poverty rate has almost tripled from 2021 to 2024. The state’s Medicaid program, Medi-Cal, was expanded, but during the latest state budget, healthcare for illegal immigrants was scaled back.
“There is no heavyweight in the ring,” Steven Maviglio, a Sacramento-based Democratic strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “Partly because Newsom is leaving behind double-digit billion-dollar structural deficits, and the job simply isn’t attractive. And partly because winning requires raising tens of millions and mobilizing a restless electorate.”
Maviglio added that there was a possibility that if there is no clear frontrunner emerges among Democrats, they could “divide the pie so that the two major Republican contenders could sneak in.”
“If that looks likely, there will be enormous pressure for some of the campaigns to drop out,” he added. “That is the danger of the top two primary.”
Political strategist Kaivan Shroff told the Washington Examiner that despite some missteps by Porter, he sees her in the top two heading into next November’s general election.
“I still think this is Katie Porter’s race to lose without a bigger name jumping in, which could still happen,” he said. “She has taken a hit, but can easily regain ground with a few viral moments showing her as the fighter Californians need. And she certainly knows how to go viral. Right now, Democratic support is split on the jungle primary, but there is no real chance Bianco wins the general election once Democrats coalesce around the candidate(s) that proceed to the general election.”
Jeff Le, former deputy Cabinet secretary to former California Gov. Jerry Brown, told the Washington Examiner that the June primary is “light years away from the electorate.”
“The lack of a clear standout reflects the importance of voter outreach even more and crisp messaging that meets rhetoric anger and frustration of the democratic base,” he added. “This is even more the case after the shutdown deal. California is still clearly a deep blue state with a significant voter registration for Democrats. A Republican still faces significant headwinds and the president’s unpopularity in the state and the diminishing Republican political infrastructure will continue to hamper any Republican aspirant.”
Bianco is betting that his long career in law enforcement will help him defy the odds and win the governor’s office.
First elected sheriff in 2018 after decades with the Riverside County Sheriff’s Office, he secured reelection in 2022 and publicly expressed interest in running for governor in June 2024. He drew widespread attention during the pandemic when he refused to enforce vaccine mandates for his employees, arguing that vaccination should remain a personal choice.
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He also came under fire after a data leak in 2014 outed him as a member of the Oath Keepers, a far-right, anti-government militia group whose members participated in the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack. Bianco has since said he is no longer a member of the organization because it “did not offer me anything.”
On his campaign website, he lists 11 priorities for the state, including, but not limited to, public safety, affordability, immigration, homelessness, insurance, energy, and emergency response.
On Bianco’s heels is former Fox News host Steve Hilton.
Hilton has spent the past three years traveling around California and listening to what voters are looking for. He recently told the Washington Examiner that affordability is the No. 1 concern.
Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican governor of California. He left office in 2011.
