All eyes are on California’s political heavyweights to intervene and put an end to the “circular firing squad” that is the gubernatorial primary.
Earlier this week, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urged long-shot candidates to exit the crowded governor’s race, a sentiment that term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) agrees with. Unfortunately for Hicks, most ignored him.
Eight Democratic candidates have filed the paperwork to qualify for the June primary, pressing ahead despite Hicks’s plea to thin the field. The California Secretary of State’s office will certify the final ballot on March 21.
Party leaders fear the sprawling Democratic field could fracture support in the top-two primary, potentially allowing two Republicans — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco — to advance to November. That would guarantee California elects its first GOP governor since 2006.
“California Democrats are suddenly discovering the downside of their own jungle primary system,” Republican strategist Erin Maguire told the Washington Examiner. “When you have eight Democrats in the race and only two Republicans, the math starts to look dangerous very quickly. … They know a fractured Democratic vote could hand Republicans the top two spots in November, and for a party that treats California as a political fortress, that’s an unacceptable risk.”
GOP strategist Jeff Burton called the situation “not a hair on fire moment yet,” but warned it is evolving.
“Whenever party chairs and leaders get involved publicly, to the extent Mr. Hicks did with his letter, it ALWAYS backfires,” Burton, co-founder at Maven Advocacy, said. “His letter will actually limit the ability of other leaders like Mrs. Pelosi and Mr. Schiff to engage because political moves like this are almost always best done out of the public eye, and now, everyone is watching.”
Hicks hardened his tone Thursday, saying the responsibility rests with the candidates who remain in the race.
California’s Democratic heavyweights — Newsom, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi — control donors, endorsements, and party infrastructure. The question is whether they will use that influence to nudge lower-tier candidates toward the exit.
So far, however, only one candidate has bowed out, fueling speculation that party leaders are either reluctant to intervene directly or lack the leverage they once had.
Newsom, who is widely expected to launch his national bid for 2028 after his term as governor ends, has not endorsed anyone in the race but has publicly signaled support for Hicks’s effort to shrink the field.
“Rusty Hicks sent me his statement … and I confess, I agree,” Newsom said. “At this moment in history, with all the peril and promise that marks this moment, for California, the most un-Trump state in America, to have a Republican Trumper running. There is no margin for error … all I’ll say is choose wisely.”
Lance Christensen, vice president at the California Policy Center, said Hicks’s letter also signaled to donors “to encourage lesser popular candidates out of the race.
“So far, it looks like only Ian Calderon took the bait,” Christensen told the Washington Examiner. “I know that Republicans are wary that this is a trap to fuel a Republican to lose to the Democrats in November, but we only have two months for the primary race and [Tom] Steyer and [San Jose Matt] Mahan have already started spending like drunken sailors with the others waiting to unleash. And so far, it’s a circular firing squad. I’m of the opinion that this bodes very well for Republicans Hilton and Bianco making it out of the top two if center-right voters show up to the polls in May and June.”
Polling shows the race is tight. Three Democrats — former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and billionaire Tom Steyer — cluster with Hilton and Bianco within 4 points, all inside the 3.9% margin of error.
At the California Democratic Party convention two weeks ago, no candidate secured the party’s coveted endorsement. Eight of the nine candidates addressed delegates in San Francisco; the closest was Swalwell with 24% of the vote.
Veteran strategist Garry South, who ran Newsom’s first campaign, said public endorsements from Pelosi or Newsom may be needed to prevent two Republicans from reaching the runoff.
“Pelosi and Newsom are probably ultimately going to have to publicly endorse one of the Democrats in order to move the needle, so that two Republicans don’t end up in the runoff,” South told the Washington Examiner. “I think they both know this. Presumably, they would endorse the same candidate.”
Andrew Koneschusky, CEO of Beltway Advisors, said Democratic leaders are almost certainly scrambling behind closed doors.
“There are likely feverish conversations happening behind the scenes right now,” Koneschusky told the Washington Examiner, adding that California’s predicament “should be a serious wake-up call” for the state.
Still, he argued Democrats do not need to rally behind a single candidate yet — they simply need to narrow the field enough to avoid a primary upset.
“What they need is enough consolidation in the field to get safely through the primary and maintain control of the governor’s mansion,” he said. “There’s a real difference between picking a nominee and narrowing a field, and the latter is all that’s needed right now.”
CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIR TELLS TRAILING GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES TO DROP OUT
For Hilton, the GOP contender sitting at the top of the most recent poll, the Democratic turmoil has been entertaining.
“I think it’s hilarious to see them panicking,” Hilton told the Washington Examiner. “It’s also interesting that they’re obsessing over the quantity of candidates, because just as big a problem is the quality… It’s like a conveyor belt of crappier and crappier politicians.”
