Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is calling out President Donald Trump for sending in thousands of National Guard troops and federal agents to Democrat-led states, including California, while ignoring Republican-led ones with much higher homicide rates.
Newsom claims that Trump is exaggerating statistics and the situation in blue states to stoke fear for political gain.
The Democratic governor has amplified his complaints on X, where he has drawn a comparison between California’s homicide rate and those of Indiana, Florida, West Virginia, Virginia, Texas, Ohio, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Nevada, South Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi. All of those states have Republican governors who have largely fallen in line with what Trump does and says.
“If the president is sincere about the issue of crime and violence, there’s no question in my mind that he’ll likely be sending the troops into Louisiana and Mississippi,” Newsom said Thursday.
It is unclear if Newsom’s calling out crime in other states is making much of a difference, but his reach on social media has grown exponentially since he started trolling Trump over the past month.
Trump has not indicated that he will federalize troops and send them into any Republican-led states, but, earlier this month, he took over the local police force in Washington, D.C., and deployed National Guard troops to patrol the streets. He took credit for a drop in crime that started before he took action. Trump has also floated expanding deployment to other Democratic strongholds such as Chicago and New York.
Does Newsom have a point?
As those cities prepare to push back, it is worth taking a look at Newsom’s claims that Trump is only interested in using crime as a vehicle to siphon power from states that oppose his policies and that states with Republican governors have some of the country’s highest homicide rates.
Doing an apples-to-apples comparison is difficult because even though California has more homicides than any state in the country, it also has the largest population. Therefore, using a rate, which refers to homicides per 100,000 people, makes it possible to compare states on an even footing. Using that comparison, Newsom’s allegations against all of the red states he called out are more or less accurate, with the governor’s office occasionally making errors when it lists the percentage.
For example, Newsom’s office claimed that “Ohio’s homicide rate is 160% higher than California’s, but you wouldn’t know that by watching FOX NEWS.” His office cited data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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While Newsom is correct that Ohio’s homicide rate is higher than California’s based on data from 2023, he incorrectly applied the percentages.
CDC data show that in 2023, the most recent numbers available, California had a homicide rate of 5.1 per 100,000 residents. Ohio had a homicide rate of 8 per 100,000 residents. That would make Ohio’s homicide rate about 56% higher than California’s, not 160%.
When Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), a Trump ally, said Newsom was “burning Los Angeles to the ground to protect illegal aliens,” Newsom responded by posting that “Alabama has 3x the homicide rate of California. Its murder rate is ranked third in the entire country. Stick to football, bro.”
According to the latest available data, Alabama ranks third in the nation for its homicide rate, trailing only Mississippi and Louisiana. Its rate is about 2.5 times higher than California’s, which Newsom rounded up by claiming it was triple. Arkansas ranks sixth, and Oklahoma ranks 20th, while California ranks 30th.
When Republican officials from Oklahoma and Arkansas criticized Newsom, he was quick to fire back with their respective rates.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) called Newsom taking Trump to court to reverse the president’s federalization of California’s National Guard troops “rich.”
“America is sick of illegal immigration and weak, lawless liberal leadership,” Mullins posted.
Newsom responded that same day, writing, “If you want to discuss violence, let’s start with your state’s murder rate — which is 40% higher than California’s.” (It’s actually 41% higher).
Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-AR), who was a Trump White House press secretary during his first term, also slammed Newsom during an appearance on Fox News.
“What’s happening in California would never happen here in Arkansas because we value order over chaos,” Sanders said. “President [Donald Trump] does too, which is why he is doing what Governor Newsom won’t.”
Newsom’s team correctly responded, “Your homicide rate is literally DOUBLE California’s.”
How the data stack up
Here is how all of the states Newsom called out stack up to California’s homicide rate using the latest CDC data, which are from 2023.
Mississippi (19.4); Louisiana (19.3); Alabama (14.8); Tennessee (11.4); Arkansas (11.3); South Carolina (11.3); Missouri (10.4); Georgia (9.9); Alaska (8.5); Nevada (8.2); Ohio (8); Indiana (8); Oklahoma (7.5); Texas (7.1); Virginia (6.8); Florida (6.5); West Virginia (5.4); California (5.1).
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While the CDC tracks state homicide rates, it does not provide a deeper dive into the problematic areas within a state. Some cities, for example, within a red state, are led by Democratic mayors. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has accused the FBI, which does offer a closer look, of failing to provide “complete, accurate national crime data.”
Comer launched an investigation into the FBI’s data reporting policies last year.
