Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency for the city of New York yesterday, banning gatherings of more than 500 people in order to stop community spread of the coronavirus. The only exceptions to the ban—which wipes out Broadway, among other entire sectors of Gotham’s economy—are hospitals, nursing homes, public transit…and schools?
“There are three things we want to preserve at all cost,” de Blasio explained at a press conference, in which he predicted that the number of cases in the city would grow from 100 to 1,000 within a week. “Our schools, our mass transit system, and most importantly our health care system.” The possibility of that first imperative wiping out the third has left many parents, teachers, and scientists spooked.
“We can say with confidence that the actions of local government in the coming days and weeks will substantially impact the course of the epidemic in our city,” a joint letter from 36 New York City infectious disease scientists stated yesterday, hours before de Blasio’s declaration. “It is our view that New York City government should act now. We recommend that social distancing should be actively implemented, not merely recommended. Events with large numbers of people should be prohibited. Perhaps most importantly and controversially, schools should be closed within the next few days.”
Italics mine.
Virologist Paul Bieniasz, who signed the letter, explained the reasoning to Forbes: “NYC schools represent ~1700 gatherings typically of >500 people that are repeated daily. Closing schools is likely to dwarf the effect of stopping one-off 500 person gatherings….Can you imagine a more effective way to spread a respiratory virus than sending one or two family members (children) off to mix with hundreds of others, having them return to their families in the evening, and repeating that process every day?”
There is some momentum locally for heeding the scientists’ advice. City Council Speaker Corey Johnson this morning said in an interview and then tweeted that “It is time to close our public schools.”
It is time to close our public schools. This isn’t an easy decision, but we must take aggressive measures to stop the spread of #COVID19.
Teaching and learning can not take place under these circumstances for the safety and well being of the teachers and students 1/
— NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson (@NYCSpeakerCoJo) March 13, 2020
The Movement of Rank and File Educators, a sort of aggro caucus within the locally dominant United Federation of Teachers, argued yesterday that “it is past time to close the school system entirely,” explaining: “We are of course concerned about the effects that this will have on students and their families. However, it is clear that the socially responsible course of action to #FlattenTheCurve on the outbreak. Transmission is clearly already happening in the schools and the sooner it stops the fewer people will die.”