Congress returns from holiday recess next week and will immediately face its latest government shutdown deadline, when funding is set to lapse starting Jan. 31.
Last year’s shutdown, the longest in U.S. history at 43 days over enhanced Obamacare subsidies that have now expired, offers a window into the key players with significant roles beyond the appropriators clambering to pass a yearlong budget.
Those lawmakers include an array of senators, whose chamber was the focus of the 2025 shutdown over bipartisan efforts to craft a deal on the COVID-19-era health insurance subsidies. Democrats see the January deadline as another leverage point to force Republicans to the table on healthcare heading into the midterm elections.
“People will go to their respective corners and towel off and get ready to duke it out for the fall elections, but I still think there are some things that are clearly, hugely bipartisan,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said in a recent interview with the Washington Examiner.
Key Republicans to watch
Sens. Katie Britt (R-AL), Susan Collins (R-ME), Bernie Moreno (R-OH), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) were among the Republicans who’ve been consequential figures in trying to find a bipartisan avenue on subsidies, tax credits that Democrats say are vital to millions of Americans with marketplace plans but that the GOP says are rife with fraud and are overly generous. The senators were among those involved in bipartisan discussions before the holiday recess after the upper chamber voted down dueling, partisan healthcare proposals from both parties. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who, like Collins, is a centrist, is also eager to make a deal.
Collins and Moreno have proposed a two-year extension with income caps and phasing out the enhanced subsidies. It’s a proposal that could help jump-start more negotiations. Cassidy’s proposal, crafted with Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), that would shift government aid to fund health savings accounts, was the GOP bill that failed but presented a starting position for Republicans. And Britt, a rising star in the Republican conference, has been increasingly involved in various policy negotiations since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Key Democrats to watch
The seven Senate Democrats who helped end the shutdown will also play a key role, along with the one Independent who caucuses with Democrats. They are Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), John Fetterman (D-PA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Tim Kaine (D-VA), and Angus King (I-ME). They were also among the senators involved in bipartisan healthcare talks before the recess.
Four of the 12 bills that comprise the annual budget have been passed and signed into law, rendering any funding lapse beyond Jan. 30 a partial shutdown. Senate Republicans struggled before recess to pass a five-bill funding measure despite clearing a logjam with fiscal hawks.
In the Republican-controlled House, members will get a vote this month prior to the funding deadline on a clean three-year extension of the subsidies forced by Democrats and four centrist Republicans: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Rob Bresnahan (R-PA), and Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA).
And with the departure from Congress of Republican Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the House GOP’s majority will become even narrower with just a two-vote buffer. That makes past government funding rebels, including Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Greg Stuebe (R-FL), and House Freedom Caucus members all the more influential with their votes. Spending figures are likely to cause heartburn for budget hawks.
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Some of Trump’s latest actions could also thwart the appetite for deal-making, such as the administration dismantling a federal climate center and halting construction of offshore wind projects, which have drawn ire from Democrats.
Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO), who is running for governor in the Centennial State, and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) said they will “pull every lever available to do what is right for Colorado” and combat “Trump’s rampage,” including procedural roadblocks to slow-walk appropriations bills.
