Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deploying two opposite political and psychological strategies to drive turnout in the deadlocked race.
Harris and Democrats have embraced the “underdog” title since she entered the presidential race a little over three months ago. Now, both publicly and privately, they are sounding the alarm that President Joe Biden’s dropping out of the race in favor of his vice president may not produce a win.
Meanwhile, Trump and Republicans are projecting confidence that he is marching toward a great political comeback after impeachments, criminal indictments, and assassination attempts.
The two differing messages — panic versus presumption — in the final days of the election could become a test case in which political psychological strategy resonates most with voters.
Trump’s campaign exudes confidence
“We’re leading by a lot in Nevada. We’re leading by a lot in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even states that are typically never in play,” Trump said speaking to voters in Las Vegas, Nevada on Thursday.
He later repeated the claims but then signaled to the risks.
“I’m not supposed to say that, just because, pretend it’s close, everybody has to – they are afraid if you hear that, they’re not going to vote,” Trump said. “Well, it’s a double-edged sword, you know, we’re leading by a lot.”
Trump’s rhetoric does not reflect the full reality of the situation as polling shows Trump has narrowed Harris’s lead in battleground states by less than one percentage point, 48.4% to 47.5%, according to a RealClearPolitics poll average. In the final New York Times/Siena College national poll of the cycle, both Harris and Trump are tied at 48%.
Brian Seitchik, who was Arizona state director in 2016 and a regional political director in 2020 for the Trump campaign, said the former president’s bright outlook isn’t surprising as confidence is central to his personal brand.
“Regardless of the situation, Trump always presents enormous outward confidence in himself and the outcome, confidence that he can fix the problems in America, confidence that he can make it all better,” Seitchik explained. “It’s Trump’s brand to be confident and present that outwardly, so he really doesn’t have a choice, it’s in his DNA.”
Dr. Jon Krosnick, director of the Political Psychology Research Group at Stanford University, said the method can be an effective mechanism of persuasion.
“You could make the argument that if the polls have been neck and neck for a long time, and now at the last minute Trump is pulling ahead, that sort of sends a signal to a bunch of people that are torn and uncertain that Trump is the guy,” Krosnick explained. “It can be a sign to some recipients of the message who can now say ‘okay I guess I can vote for Trump.’”
“In the parlance of social psychology, social norms are informative and tell us what we should do. So, if everybody else does something, it can signal there’s probably the wisdom of the crowd behind it.”
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Brian Walsh, a Republican strategist, said there’s value in relaying a positive message to supporters in the final days of an election.
“I believe it’s better when your base feels they’re part of a winning movement and not a lost cause because they’re more motivated to overcome obstacles to voting when they believe they are up,” he said.
“If your side believes they are the ones with the momentum, I think the votes will get it across the finish line versus a more negative ‘woah is me’ mentality.”
Republicans are betting perception becomes reality
Some GOP consultants are wary of being overconfident, admitting there’s been a tranche of Republican-aligned polling that could be skewing the numbers and creating a false sense of reality, pointing to 2022 when polling appeared to show a “red wave” that never materialized.
“I’m very superstitious. I think we all learned a very valuable lesson in 2022 when we were really giving a lot of stock to polls conducted by Republican-affiliated firms that made Republican Senate candidates appear stronger than they were,” said a national GOP operative, speaking on the condition of anonymity in an effort to reflect candidly on the situation.
“There are a lot of polls out there and it’s important to understand all of them are not created equal.”
On social media, Trump’s surrogates are trending sharing favorable numbers, but some of the posts are citing questionable polling data or others don’t include any at all.
Richard Grennell, a key Trump ally who served as the acting director of national intelligence during his administration, posted the results of a sourceless “shock” poll, claiming the Republican presidential nominee was catching up with Harris in New Mexico.
New Mexico shock poll.
Harris 49, Trump 46
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) October 21, 2024
The post, which claimed Harris had a three-point lead on Trump in New Mexico, was seen by 1.5 million people. A separate poll published in the Albuquerque Journal on Monday, which showed Harris a lead more than three times what Grennell shared.
Democratic strategist and pollster, Matt McDermott, accused Trump allies of “literally fabricating polls,” in a post on X.
“Trump surrogates are literally fabricating polls at this point to make their supporters think a victory is inevitable,” he wrote. “No poll shows this in New Mexico. In fact, a poll was released today by the Albuquerque Journal: Harris is +9, roughly in line with Biden’s margin in 2020.”
John Blanchar, the director of the Social and Political Psychology Lab at the University of Minnesota, Duluth said perceived momentum can be motivating in the age of social media, even if it is artificial.
“We react to the situation as perceived and so what the reality is often doesn’t matter as much as what you perceive it to be,” he explained. “So, if you can create the perception that your candidate is in the lead even though it is a close race, that could be motivating people – perception is reality.”
Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss to Trump looms large
Memories of the 2016 campaign cast a shadow over this cycle as many Democrats are still haunted by the outcome of election night when Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in an upset. Operatives and supporters are determined to avoid the same outcome and have been vocal about the challenges they face.
“Every Democrat is on the couch wearing a lobster bib and still has massive amounts of PTSD from 2016 when most Democrats thought Hillary Clinton had it in the bag,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist based in New York. “I think the Harris team has Hillary Clinton’s failure — her belly flop — top of mind of what not to replicate.”
Reinish said the Harris team’s messaging can help spur motivation among supporters, and underscores “making them nervous is not a bad thing.”
“I think Harris is right and smart when she tells her supporters and tells donors and groups, ‘I am the underdog here,’ it’s a smart strategy that motivates your people more.”
Robin Shaw, the co-chair of the “Republicans for Harris” coalition group in Arizona, runs the group’s Facebook page. She utilizes a similar strategy in the posts to the page’s 700 followers in an attempt to keep them motivated.
“I have told my team, ‘I do not want you to post any great news or positive outlooks about how Kamala Harris is doing,’” she explained. “We need to keep everybody motivated and in high gear until every last vote is certified and counted.”
Text messages sent to voters in swing states in recent weeks highlight “this election will be one of the closest of our lifetime,” and urges them to vote and donate. One progressive political action organization sent voters an email detailing warning signs in Michigan and Wisconsin as a call to action.
“The campaign is even preparing for possible losses in Michigan or Wisconsin,” the email from Our Revolution PAC said. “The path to defeating Trump gets extremely dicey if Harris loses in PA, MI, or WI. So, we need your help to go ALL OUT to change the course of this election.”
The PAC, founded as a continuation of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 2016 presidential campaign, asks for donations to help fund canvassing efforts in the blue wall states.
However, experts are unsure if a message that specifically asks for monetary contributions is too little too late. Some are pointing to reports that major media markets in battleground states are sold out of inventory for political advertising through Election Day.
Krosnick questioned the effectiveness of advertising as a motivator to spur turnout.
“In political psychology, we know negative advertising is a turn off for voters. It actually reduces the likelihood of turnout because people actually get fed up with politics and don’t want to participate,” he said.
Political posturing, projections, and polling
In the world of academia, Blanchar said Harris is embracing what psychologists call the “pivotal voter model” in her closing argument.
“It’s sort of external efficacy that ‘my vote will matter,’ that ‘my vote can change and my vote can impact the outcome of the election’ and ultimately what happens in the country,” he explained.
Harris rallied with Beyoncé in Texas on Friday to highlight the medical fallout from abortion restrictions, putting the blame squarely on Trump. She’s banking on the implications of the fall of Roe v. Wade spurring voters to turn out, as they did in the 2022 midterm elections.
“What this seems to reflect, is what a political psychologist like myself call negative partisanship, this idea that sometimes people are more motivated to oppose a candidate or a party than to support their own party,” Blanchar explained. ”So Harris is making the case for how bad the alternative is, and that ‘you should support us, because you don’t want this bad thing to happen.’”
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As political posturing, projections, and polling continue to flood inboxes and newsfeeds, insiders are making the case that no one truly knows what is going to happen, especially in the final days.
“If you’re a Republican or a Democrat, you can find a poll that assuages your concerns or you can find a poll that can make you deeply concerned,” Seitchik said. “There’s plenty for everybody in the polling right now. The accuracy of the polling is going to depend on the composition of the electorate and we just don’t know if one group is going to over-vote another.”
