With fewer than 47 days until the November election, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are tied with likely voters in Pennsylvania, which could be the state to decide the contest on Election Day.
Trump and Harris each garnered 49% of likely voters in the Keystone State, per a new Marist Poll.
Furthermore, 90% of likely voters who said they had a candidate preference also reported strongly supporting them.
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“Pennsylvania is attracting the most attention of the Rust Belt states from the presidential candidates and with good reason,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “It’s the biggest prize in the region and the most competitive. Winning Pennsylvania doesn’t guarantee the White House, but it goes a long way.”
In two other so-called “blue wall” states, Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris topped Trump in the survey.
The vice president is up five points in Michigan, 52% to Trump’s 47%. However, the margin is razor-thin in Wisconsin, where she only beat him by one point, 50% to 49%.
According to Miringoff, “of the three so-called blue wall states, Michigan is the one where there is a difference between Harris and Trump.”
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“The Michigan vote is being driven by Trump’s high negatives with Vance certainly providing no help for the GOP ticket,” Miringoff added, referencing the 53% of Michigan likely voters that view Trump unfavorably.
Inflation was the top issue for most Pennsylvanians by far, with one-third saying so. Despite it being a campaign priority for Democrats across the country, abortion was the fourth most likely to be a top issue for voters, at just 11%. It was beaten by immigration at 15%, and preserving democracy, which garnered 27%.
The top issue breakdown among Wisconsin voters was similar to that of Pennsylvania, but in Michigan, the issue of preserving Democracy proved to be the most important for the greatest number of voters.
At 30%, the most likely Michigan voters cited it as such. Inflation was close behind, at 29%. Immigration followed at 15%, while abortion received 10%.
In all three states, an at least 20-point gender gap exists between Harris and Trump, with men breaking more often for the former president and women tending to choose Harris.
While the gap exists for both of them, Trump’s woes with women seem to loom larger than Harris’ issue with men. Trump’s gap is particularly wide with women in Michigan, where Harris leads him by the most. In the state, the distance between Harris and Trump among likely women voters is 15 points.
The close polls come as Trump seems to be losing his edge in two critical states, according to the most recent Fox News Power Rankings. Both North Carolina and Georgia, which were once considered Republican strongholds, are now rated toss-ups in the presidential race.
With these presidential race shifts by Fox News Power Rankings, Harris has taken the overall lead in the forecast for the first time.
