Big-name candidates and national attention are shifting the political dynamics of gubernatorial races across the country, posing challenges and opportunities for both parties.
Only two states have gubernatorial races in 2025: New Jersey and Virginia. The most high-profile election will be in Virginia, where Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is facing former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
Heading into 2026, however, there are 36 gubernatorial contests, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball announcing rating shifts for Maine and Iowa on Thursday. Iowa and Virginia have trended closer toward Democrats, while Maine’s seat is trending slightly toward Republicans, the election forecaster found.
Virginia’s race is one of the first statewide elections after Republicans’ victories in the 2024 election, and Democrats have had their eyes on the purple state for a while.
In 2023, the commonwealth was one of two states with a split legislature, meaning Republicans held the state Senate and Democrats the House. That year, Democrats gained complete control of the legislature, weakening the leverage of outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) for his final two years. He is term-limited, meaning he cannot seek another term in 2025.
The winner of this fall’s gubernatorial contest in Virginia will signal whether Republicans can still maintain a grip on statewide politics or if the Old Dominion State will revert to its blue leanings.
In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) opted not to run for reelection, offering a rare chance for an open governor’s seat in a state once considered purple but that has been voting red over the last decade.
And in Maine, Democrats are hoping to maintain their seat of power due to outgoing Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) facing term limits. The party has a crowded primary for its nomination, and Republicans are hoping name recognition will boost their candidate. An independent candidate with roots in state politics could throw a wrench in both parties’ plans.
Virginia – Likely Democratic
In-person early voting begins for Virginia voters in a little over two weeks. Though the race is anticipated to be competitive, Crystal Ball moved its rating from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
Spanberger, who served as representative for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District from 2019 to 2025, has largely held an edge in the race over Earle-Sears when it comes to fundraising and campaigning on airwaves and over social media. She has a roughly 2-1 fundraising advantage and a sizable lead in future ad reservations, per AdImpact.
An August poll from Roanoke College found Spanberger with a 46%-39% lead, while the RealClearPolitics average of polls shows her with the same 7-point advantage.
The race gained a higher profile nationally this past month when a protester outside a meeting Earle-Sears was attending in Arlington brought a sign saying, “Hey Winsome, if trans can’t share your bathroom, then blacks can’t share my water fountain.”
Republicans and Earle-Sears, who is black, condemned the sign and blasted Democrats for “hypocrisy.” Spanberger condemned the sign as racist and “unacceptable.”
Republicans have zeroed in on Spanberger’s stances on transgender participation in school sports, a culture war issue that became a major sticking point in the 2024 election. In one of the campaign ads, Earle-Sears borrowed a line from the Trump campaign’s anti-Harris messaging, stating that “Spanberger is for they/them.”
Virginia will be a test to see whether the GOP’s elevation of transgender politics will carry the same weight as it did in 2024, when Democrats were accused of caring more about social issues than the economy.
On the other hand, Democrats have worked to nationalize the race by tying Earle-Sears to Trump and his efforts to slash the federal workforce. The federal rollback has disproportionately impacted states like Virginia and Maryland, which are so close to Washington, and have become a sore point for Republicans as voters react negatively to the hiring reductions.
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Iowa – Leans Republican
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’s decision to retire came as a surprise to many in the Hawkeye State, making it the most wide-open race since 2006. She was the state’s first female governor and has served in the role since 2017.
Governors have no term limits in Iowa, and the state has a track record of reelecting incumbents. So, Reynolds was not thought to have a difficult path after winning reelection to her second term by almost 20 percentage points.
Many say Democrats’ strongest hope is state Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat currently elected to a statewide office. Many had anticipated Sand would seek the governorship, launching his bid for the seat almost exactly one month after Reynolds announced her retirement.
Sand is considered the front-runner in a Democratic primary, which is likely to consist of additional challengers with an incumbent like Reynolds out of the picture. One is Julie Stauch, a longtime Iowa political operative who launched her bid in June. She worked on campaigns for Democratic presidential candidates such as Pete Buttigieg in 2020, Bill Clinton in 1996, and Michael Dukakis in 1988.
On the Republican side, many politicos were thrown for another loop when Attorney General Brenna Bird declined to run for the GOP nomination.
The field currently includes state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former Iowa House member Brad Sherman. Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) announced an exploratory committee for governor and told voters an announcement will likely come in September.
Feenstra is largely considered an early front-runner, especially since his fellow Iowa colleagues, Reps. Zach Nunn (R-IA) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), passed on a bid and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) announced she is running to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) in the Senate.
But Crystal Ball shifted the race’s rating from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.” Sand, with his elected position and statewide name recognition, could pose a stronger threat to the GOP’s gubernatorial hopes than other candidates have in past cycles.
A special election win for Democrats in Iowa last month has also given some Republican pundits pause, though strategists in both parties acknowledge that special elections could be outliers instead of proof that Democrats are riding favorable political headwinds.
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Maine – Leans Democratic
Maine is undergoing a similar gubernatorial race to the one currently shaping up in New Jersey. A crowded Democratic field yielded a victory for Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) over a fellow House colleague and two well-known mayors. But Trump came within six percentage points of winning the traditionally blue New Jersey last year, and Republicans see an opportunity to flip it this November.
Due to ranked choice voting in Maine, Harris won three of the state’s four electoral votes, with Trump receiving the remaining one. But this state’s gubernatorial race is unique and draws attention due to the name recognition among the candidates.
Democrats in the competitive primary include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, and businessman Angus King III.
Pingree is the daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-ME), and King III is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME).
The Republican primary is also crowded, with the most notable candidate being businessman Jonathan Bush, the nephew of former President George W. Bush.
Crystal Ball shifted the race from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic” in part due to a significant independent candidate: state Sen. Rick Bennett, a Republican who served as president of his chamber and a former chairman of the state GOP.
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Bennett has sought higher office before, narrowly losing a bid for Maine’s 2nd District in 1994 and a primary race for a U.S. Senate seat in 2012.
It is likely that, as a Republican, he could divert votes away from the GOP nominee, though his independent run could pull swing voters from Democrats as well.
