EXCLUSIVE — Republicans are increasingly bullish on their ability to make inroads in the Democratic stronghold of Minnesota after a fraud scandal that rocked the state and contributed to the retirement of Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).
New internal polling from a GOP campaign arm, first provided to the Washington Examiner, suggests the two declared Democratic candidates for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig, are vulnerable to allegations that nonprofit groups, supposed child care centers, and other organizations have bilked billions of dollars from state and federal programs.
A fatal shooting on Wednesday of a Minnesota woman by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer is also roiling tensions between Democrats and the Trump administration, but fallout from the fraud scheme will remain a political flashpoint that is likely to continue affecting the Senate primary and general election.
After providing a brief description of the fraud allegations to likely voters, a majority, 55%, said in the survey that the Walz-Flanagan administration bears responsibility for any misuse of funds, and 69% expressed concern that Craig is not handling the issue of the potential misuse of taxpayer money seriously.
The poll was conducted last month by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Although its questions framed the scandal with wording sympathetic to Republicans, the survey suggests the GOP sees an opening that could drag down Democrats.
In what the NRSC called “good news for Republicans in a blue state,” 50% of respondents said they’re more likely to support a GOP Senate candidate pledging stronger oversight and audits. A large majority, 87%, expressed overall concern about the fraud scandal having diverted funds intended for seniors, disabled, and low-income families.
“The seriously retired Governor Tim Walz and Minnesota Democrats like Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig oversaw massive fraud that has hurt Minnesotans, and their failed leadership puts Minnesota in play for Republicans in 2026,” NRSC Regional press secretary Nick Puglia said in a statement after Walz announced his retirement.
The Craig campaign declined to comment, and the Flanagan campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Both are vying for the seat of retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), while Republicans have yet to coalesce around a GOP candidate.
Nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as a “likely” Democratic contest as Republicans fight to maintain their 53-47 majority in the Senate.
The scandal has also generated political ammunition for Craig, a federal lawmaker who can more easily make the case she’s insulated from a state government issue, to use against Flanagan in what is a messy and competitive primary between two ideologically different candidates. Craig, the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, represents the party’s centrist faction while Flanagan embodies the progressive base. Since taking office in 2019, Craig has filed various bills aimed at combating fraud in federal programs.
“I think the impact more broadly to the Senate race is that Peggy Flanagan will have many of the same issues [on fraud],” Craig recently told The Minnesota Star Tribune. “We absolutely can’t afford to let her be the nominee and put this Senate seat at risk.”
A Flanagan spokesperson told the outlet that Craig was “choosing to lean into Republican attack lines to distract from her pro-Trump record” and that Walz “has said repeatedly that the buck stops with him and voters are taking him at his word.”
DOJ SENDS PROSECUTORS TO MINNESOTA AMID WIDENING FRAUD INVESTIGATION
Prosecutors have charged nearly 100 defendants in Minnesota fraud-related cases thus far and secured 64 convictions, according to the Department of Justice, which has launched an expansive investigation. Most defendants are of Somali descent.
It’s an even more crowded primary on the Republican side of the ticket with former NBA player and 2024 GOP Senate nominee Royce White; former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze; and retired U.S. Navy officer and 2022 GOP congressional nominee Tom Weiler. Michele Tafoya, a former NFL reporter who’s now a political activist and commentator, is also weighing a run.
Kaelan Deese contributed to this report.
