Republicans are gearing up for what is likely to be a brutal battle to select a GOP challenger for Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) next year in one of Democrats’ most vulnerable seats.
The decision by Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) to bow out of consideration Monday allowed Democrats to take a victory lap, as it dashed Republican hopes stretching from the Peach State to the nation’s capital of having a star recruit. The focus quickly turned to other possible GOP challengers, including one that national Republicans behind the scenes particularly want to avoid: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).
“Obviously, we’re disappointed about [Kemp]. He, of course, would have been a great candidate,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said. “That race is going to be competitive either way, and the good news is there’s a lot of interest.”
Thune, prompted if Greene could win a statewide contest amid concerns in the party that her firebrand style of politics could be a liability with swing voters, offered little reassurance of her candidate quality.
“I don’t know the answer to that. Obviously, that’s up to the people of Georgia,” he said. “But I know there are several in the House delegation over there that are expressing interest and some other statewides too.”
The bench of possible contenders now that Kemp, a popular second-term governor, cleared the way is deep and extends well beyond Greene, the MAGA loyalist who frequently grabs headlines. Other possible hopefuls include Reps. Mike Collins (R-GA), Rick Allen (R-GA), Rich McCormick (R-GA), and Brian Jack (R-GA), Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper, Insurance Commissioner John King, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
There was little surprise to Kemp’s decision from those familiar with Georgia GOP politics who saw him as having nominal interest in the gig, even as he was lobbied by top Republican senators.
“To Republicans nationally: don’t give up on us,” Brian Robinson, a Georgia-based GOP strategist who worked for Kemp’s predecessor, former Georgia GOP Gov. Nathan Deal, told the Washington Examiner. “We didn’t get Plan A, but Plan B is going to probably be OK. We just need the party primary electorate to act and vote strategically. Who can beat John Ossoff? It’s not necessarily going to be the person who gets the party faithful on their feet, acting and hooting and hollering.”
Democrats were quick to label the recruiting blunder an early boost for Ossoff, the first-term, purple-state senator who ousted former GOP Sen. David Perdue in 2020 by just 1.2 percentage points. Ossoff is the only Democrat up for reelection in the Senate whose state Trump won.
Senate Democrats’ campaign arm labeled Kemp’s decision “yet another embarrassing Republican Senate recruitment failure,” while the Ossoff campaign said the GOP will be forced to “scramble in the aftermath.”
Senate Republicans’ campaign arm sought to project optimism that its chances to turn the seat back to red were alive and well. It whacked Ossoff for leaning into rhetoric that President Donald Trump has committed impeachable acts in his second term.
“While Jon Ossoff is running to impeach President Trump, Republicans have a number of strong candidates who can build a winning coalition to add this seat to President Trump’s Senate majority,” said Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Kemp is but the latest current or former governor with national name recognition to decline a Senate run in their home state, joining the likes of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and former New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu. Meanwhile, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) is looking to leave Washington with a run for governor as Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) weigh their own possible gubernatorial campaigns.
Recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution polling showed Kemp with the strongest odds among Republicans of unseating Ossoff. Kemp bested Ossoff 49-46% in a hypothetical matchup. Greene, King, and Raffensperger lost by at least 9 points or more. Greene polled the lowest against Ossoff, with 37% to his 54%.
Trump could also sway the race, should he choose to put his thumb on the scale with an endorsement. Greene has a close relationship with him, and Jack is being encouraged by Trump to run, according to a source familiar with the race.
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“Whoever it is, the Republicans have got to be strategic,” Robinson said, adding that the GOP can’t make the mistakes of 2022 and “put forward a candidate that couldn’t win, that wasn’t serious.”
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) narrowly bested Republican nominee Herschel Walker in a 2022 special election, with many in the GOP pointing to Walker’s scandal-ridden campaign as the culprit for failing to retake the seat.
David Sivak and Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this report.
