Swing states have been getting all the headlines in the run-up to Election Day, but within them, there are a handful of counties that will determine if Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the big prize.
As things stand, Harris is expected to garner a minimum of 226 electoral votes, and Trump 219. Should that hold, Harris would need only 44 electoral votes to reach the magic 270 threshold, while Trump would need 51. That means every vote in every swing county within every swing state counts.
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Here are the most consequential counties to keep an eye on throughout election night.
Arizona (Maricopa County, Santa Cruz County)
Of all the swing states, Arizona has the fewest counties with just 15 across its 113,998 square miles. However, it is home to some of the most important counties that will sway the presidential election.
Maricopa County, which sits in the south-central part of the state, could be the most important county on election night, according to J. Miles Coleman with Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The county is home to nearly 62% of Arizona’s population and holds several crucial voting demographics, including Hispanics, centrist Republicans, and older voters. Maricopa County is vital for a presidential candidate to win the state, and it typically favors Republicans.
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Trump carried the county in 2016 with 47.6% of the vote before it swung toward Joe Biden in 2020, who won Maricopa with 50% of the vote.
Another crucial county to watch in Arizona is Santa Cruz County, which is situated on the southern border and is home to a significant Hispanic population and could be a bellwether for the national Hispanic vote.
“Perhaps paradoxically, Santa Cruz County probably told us more about the Hispanic vote nationally than about the Hispanic vote throughout the rest of Arizona,” Coleman wrote. “According to Catalist’s post-2020 national report, Hispanics overall swung to Trump by a margin comparable to the Hispanic precincts in Santa Cruz County.”
The county will be an important indicator for Trump as it swung about 12 points in his direction from 2016 to 2020. However, Biden still carried the county by 35 points, giving Harris an advantage, but it could indicate how Trump will fare with Hispanic voters across the rest of the country.
Georgia (Fayette County, Sumter County)
Georgia has become a swing state like no other in recent years after Biden’s victory in 2020, the first time a Democrat carried the Peach State in almost three decades.
Biden’s surprising performance in Georgia was crucial to his win over Trump, and now Harris is hoping for a similar upset to boost her to the White House in November.
Unlike Arizona, Georgia has the most counties of all the swing states: 159. And there are two counties in particular that could be ripe for Democrats to flip, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
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One of those is Fayette County, which Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020. However, his margin of victory decreased from 19 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016 to just 7 points above Biden in 2020 — giving Harris an opening to secure the county in an effort to win the state’s 16 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, Republicans will be looking to Sumter County to flip in their direction. If Trump manages to win the state, much of his support will likely come from these types of rural counties, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Biden carried the county by 5 points in 2020, but Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was the only Democrat to win a statewide contest there in 2022 — setting the stage for Trump to flip it this year.
“Assuming Georgia remains highly competitive, we’d expect Fayette County to move towards Harris and Sumter County towards Trump, while a ‘maximum realignment’ scenario could involve both counties changing sides,” Coleman wrote in an analysis for Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Michigan (Saginaw County, Muskegon County, Grand Traverse County)
Michigan was one of the surprise states that helped secure Trump’s victory in 2016 and has since been a major swing state coveted by both Republicans and Democrats.
Trump won Michigan by a narrow margin in 2016, making him the first Republican to win the state in a presidential election since 1988. The state later flipped to Biden, who won by nearly 3 points in 2020.
To win back Michigan, Trump will want to flip Saginaw County and maintain control of what is known as the Cherry Coast, which is situated along Lake Michigan. Saginaw County is considered to be the state’s only bellwether as it is the only county to vote with the state in all four of the last presidential elections.
As a result, Harris will want to win that county, along with Muskegon County, which has a significant black population, according to Dave Wasserman, an editor with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Another indicator for the state is Grand Traverse County, which has typically leaned toward Republicans but swung toward Democrats when the state reelected Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) in 2022.
Although election forecasters do not believe Harris needs to win the county to ensure a victory in the state, they say the vice president will want to limit Trump to a plurality there.
North Carolina (New Hanover County, Cabarrus County)
Although North Carolina is one of the least competitive of the battleground states, Democrats view it as ripe for the taking on Election Day.
There may not be one county that will be a pure bellwether in North Carolina, according to Wasserman, but he said the state is likely to give a more complete picture of how certain counties are leaning earlier on election night compared to other states.
However, there are certain counties Harris will need to perform well in if she wants to claim the state’s 16 electoral votes.
Among those is New Hanover County, which Harris will need to win to boost her chances of winning the state. New Hanover is one of those counties that is expected to finish counting first, so Harris will likely know her chances in the Tar Heel State early in the night.
Harris will also need to come within striking distance in Cabarrus County, which holds most of Charlotte’s eastern suburban communities. Although Trump carried the county with 54% of the vote in 2020, it was the only county in North Carolina that swung more than 10 percentage points away from him, giving Democrats some sense of optimism that they could cut further into his support.
“At the presidential level, it would be a surprise if Harris actually flipped Cabarrus County, but we’re looking to see how far she can move beyond Biden’s 44.5%” from 2020, Coleman wrote.
Pennsylvania (Erie County, Northampton County, Lackawanna County, Lehigh County)
Pennsylvania has established itself as the cornerstone of the 2024 election. Its 19 electoral votes and battleground status make it among the biggest prizes on election night and crucial to winning the presidency.
The state was paramount to Trump’s victory in 2016 and Biden’s in 2020. There are a slew of counties that will be indicators of who is likely to win the state, and maybe the White House itself.
Among those is Erie County, which Trump won by 2 percentage points when he won Pennsylvania in 2016 before losing it by 1 point to Biden in 2020. The county has voted for the winning presidential candidate in the last four elections.
Northampton County is also considered to be an important bellwether in Pennsylvania. It has selected the winning presidential candidate in all but three presidential elections since 1912.
Another county to keep an eye on is Lackawanna County, which contains Biden’s hometown of Scranton. Harris will want to perform well there as the northeastern county has historically supported Democrats, although it has shifted toward Republicans in recent years.
“We would probably expect Harris’s margin in Lackawanna County to be somewhere in between Clinton’s and Biden’s if she were to be on track to carry the state,” Coleman wrote.
Lehigh County will also be closely watched, especially as it contains one of the most competitive House races of the 2024 cycle — a downballot race that could be a bellwether for the presidential election. The House district has chosen the winning presidential candidate for the last seven cycles, according to Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA), who is running for reelection in that seat.
Wisconsin (Door County, Richland County, Marquette County, Columbia County, Lincoln County)
Wisconsin has long been one of the most contentious battleground states as four of the last six presidential elections were decided by less than 1 point there. The state has also picked the presidential victor in the last four elections.
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As a result, candidates will want to keep an eye on Door County, which has become a reliable bellwether in the state in recent cycles. The county has chosen the winning presidential candidate in the last seven cycles.
Other bellwethers include Richland and Marquette counties, which have chosen the winning presidential candidate in all but one election since 1980. Columbia and Lincoln counties are also good indicators, having chosen the winning candidate in all but two presidential elections since 1980.
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