Republicans are hoping to hold on to their majority in the House in November but are facing an uphill battle in fundraising and the partisan divide in some of their front-line candidates’ districts.
Democrats would need to net four seats to reclaim control of the chamber. However, while Republicans are bullish about their chances in various Democratic-held seats, five battleground seats could fall.
Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY)
Williams, a first-term congressman, is in a race rated as “lean Democrat” by the Cook Political Report and was one of the few victims of New York’s minor redistricting earlier this year.
In 2022, Williams won his seat 50.5%-49.5%, but his new seat is more Democrat-leaning. Under the new map, the district voted for Republican Lee Zeldin over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) in the 2022 gubernatorial race, 51.1%-48.9%, with more than 6,000 votes dividing the candidates. In 2020, the district voted for President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump, 55.8%-44.2%, with 42,000 votes dividing the two men.
Trump, who campaigned in New York last month, will seek to boost House candidates again with a rally at Madison Square Garden later this month. The former president is not expected to be competitive in the Empire State, but the GOP’s chances of maintaining the House run through several blue states, such as California.
Rep. John Duarte (R-CA)
Another vulnerable House Republican in a heavily Democratic state is Duarte, whose race has been rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report. His seat holds a “Democrat +4” partisan voting index.
The central California district voted for Republicans in both the gubernatorial (54.2%-45.8%) and Senate elections (51%-49%) in 2022 but voted for Biden over Trump by more than 10% in 2020. The district is a majority Latino or Hispanic, making up roughly two-thirds of the population.
A September poll conducted by the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona found that in California’s 13th Congressional District, Duarte’s challenger, Adam Gray, is leading the incumbent, 46.3%-45.2%. In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Trump by only 49.5%-46.4%. Both results were within the poll’s 5.6% margin of error.
Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR)
Chavez-DeRemer won her seat in 2022 over Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, 50.9%-48.8%, and is facing another tight race in 2024.
The deep blue Beaver State’s 5th Congressional District has a partisan voting index of “Democrat +2,” according to the Cook Political Report, while the race has been rated as a “toss-up.” The district voted for Biden by roughly 9% in 2020.
A poll from Noble Predictive Insights-Inside Elections released in August showed a similar 50%-42 % lead for Harris over Trump in the district. The poll also showed Democrat Janelle Bynum narrowly leading Chavez-DeRemer, 43%-42%, within the survey’s 4.8% margin of error.
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA)
Garcia, who initially won his seat in a May 2020 special election, defeated Democrat Christy Smith for a third consecutive time in 2022, 53.2%-46.8% in California’s 27th Congressional District, and is again facing a difficult task holding the seat.
The Southern California district holds a “Democrat +4” partisan voting index and is a “toss-up” race, according to the Cook Political Report. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by more than 12% under these boundaries, while in 2022, the gubernatorial and Senate races were split between Republican and Democratic candidates.
Garcia will face Democrat George Whitesides in the Nov. 5 election. In the September University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona poll, the Democrat-led Garcia, 48.2%-46.1%. In that same survey, Harris is leading Trump, 51%-42.7%.
Trump campaigned in Coachella Valley, California, last week in an apparent bid to boost House Republicans in a state where the Senate and presidential race appear headed for easy Democratic victories.
Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY)
Molinaro, a key Republican in the GOP’s swing seats in New York, nearly had his seat made safer for Republicans during the redistricting process earlier this year but instead is facing a similar partisan voting tilt to the seat he ran for in 2022.
In 2022, Molinaro won his seat, 50.8%-49.2%. Under the current district parameters, Zeldin won the district over Hochul in the 2022 gubernatorial race, 53.5%-46.5%, and in the 2020 presidential race, Biden beat Trump in the district, 52.2%-47.8%.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Hudson Valley district’s partisan voting index is “Republican +1,” and the Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up.”
The race for control of the House will likely depend on whether many blue-state House Republicans can outrun Trump in their districts.
