The Washington Examiner is following key issues that voters care about as the prepare to cast their ballot for the next president of the United States. The specific issues being tracked are Social Security, crime, abortion, the economy, and immigration.
The issues were chosen with the help of the Associated Press issues tracker. The Washington Examiner subsequently compared five of the key issues in Google Trends on a national scale, revealing which issues are most important to voters across the country. Early voting, which was not considered when this project began because of its failure to rank, has surged to the top of voters’ minds in recent days.
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Here, you can track the importance of these various concerns to voters over a rolling 30-day period. To read how these issues track on a state-by-state basis, scroll to the bottom of the story.
Social Security
Social Security was the top concern out of the five search terms for voters across the country. The program was signed into law by Franklin Roosevelt in August 1935 with the goal that it would “give some measure of protection to the average citizen and to his family against the loss of a job and against poverty-ridden old age.”
Today, not even 100 years later, the program is in jeopardy. Whereas Social Security will not completely disappear in the future, its funds could be depleted within a decade. The Social Security Board of Trustees 2024 report showed the Old Age and Survivors Insurance and the Disability Insurance funds would be the first to be affected if no action is taken. Social Security would be able to pay 83% of its scheduled benefits by 2035, which would eventually shrink to 73%.
The program’s current funds are taken from payroll taxes, interest on trust fund bonds, and income taxes paid to higher-income beneficiaries. Possible actions for adding more money to the program are raising the retirement age to 70, reducing the annual cost of living, increasing wages to Social Security taxes and raising the payroll tax rate.
Many people are not pleased with the idea of raising the retirement age, as it would disproportionately harm lower income seniors. If the retirement age was raised to 70, average lifetime benefits would be cut by 20% according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. In contrast, if Social Security was left to dry up, the depletion would result in a 23% benefits cut.
As far as raising the payroll tax rate, Rep. John Larson (D-CT) proposed the Social Security 2100 Act which would raise the federal tax rate for employers by 6.2% and would only raise taxes on employees making over $400,000. The bill would also eliminate the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has been working toward removing. The bill has stalled in Congress but has been widely supported by democratic representatives and senators from Colorado, California, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and Connecticut.
Crime
Reducing crime was the second rated issue of the five across America as the concern has grown since the pandemic. About 68% of Republicans say crime reduction is a top priority and roughly half of Democrats agree.
Crime has decreased over the last three decades according to data from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics. The violent crime rate fell 49% from 1993 to 2022 with the largest decreases coming from robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%), and murder (-34%). However, murder rates increased during the pandemic and fell back down in 2023. Cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles all had lower violent crime rates in 2023 than in 2022.
Many voters are more likely to say crime is up nationally rather than locally, but the national violent crime rate dropped to 363.8 per 100,000 people in 2023 compared to 385.2 per 100,000 people in 2020. Since 2022, murder rates decreased by 12%, rape fell by over 9%, and aggravated assault went down 3%.
According to the PEW Research Center, six-in-10 voters favor stricter gun laws, and 61% of voters think it is too easy to legally obtain a gun. In 2021, more people died from gun-related injuries than in any other year on record. Suicides made up 55% of the total and homicides accounted for the remainder, although gun-related homicides accounted for 60% of deaths for minors, making it the leading cause of death for those under 18. In 2024, the U.S. surgeon general declared gun violence a public health crisis. To put the change into perspective, there were three active shooter incidents in 2000 compared to 61 incidents in 2021.
Economy
The economy is a huge driving factor in the presidential election. Everything from the cost of food, the cost of living, the unemployment rate, the housing market, inflation and more has been used as a talking point by both of the presidential candidates.
The pandemic greatly affected many of these issues, especially the unemployment rate. Pre-pandemic unemployment rates in 2018 and 2019 were 3.9% and 3.7% before skyrocketing to 8.1% in 2020. In 2021 it fell to 5.3% and 2022 saw 3.6%. The average unemployment rate in 2023 was 3.6% but has risen in 2024. There were upticks in the summer, but most recently victims of hurricanes Helene and Milton have made the unemployment rate rise to 4.1%.
The job market was sparked this year with over 254,000 jobs being added in September alone. Inflation rates have dropped as well. In June 2022, inflation rates were the highest on record at 8.9%, but in September 2024 inflation rates were 2.4%. In comparison to 2023 rates, daily necessities like gasoline have dropped 15.3%, energy is down 6.9% and groceries are up 1.3%. In response to the sharp decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5 points in September- the first cut in four years- to encourage more economic growth and steady the labor market.
The country’s overall real gross domestic product increased 3% in Q2 of 2024 with the top performing industries being nondurable goods manufacturing and finance and insurance. Healthcare and social assistance as well as the real estate industry closely followed in growth rate. Construction and wholesale trade also increased, but educational services decreased.
The real estate industry’s housing market is not quite a buyers market as median home prices reached a record high in July, but mortgage rates are falling and the Fed interest cut is encouraging for potential homebuyers. The lower interest rate and the construction industry’s Q2 growth is a positive sign for home builders as well. However, the market has frozen in place as potential homebuyers continue to wait to see if rates lower even more.
Abortion
Abortion concerns came in fourth. The abortion conversation became a 50-state-wide discussion for the first time since 1973 after the overturn of Roe v. Wade in 2022. As of this year, 63% of voters think abortion should be legal, with 85% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans sharing the stance.
Some states took stances to protect the procedure immediately after the reversal while others did the exact opposite. Here’s a breakdown of where every state lands with abortion, according to the Center for Reproductive Rights.
States where abortion is legal to the point of viability or more are Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.
Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico allow abortion but do not have any specific laws protecting the procedure. Wisconsin’s government is also in debates over the legality of abortion in the state.
States with abortion measures on the ballot include Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York and South Dakota. Ballot measures range from extending existing protections to legalizing the procedure where it’s fully illegal.
States where abortion is illegal except in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother are Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming.
States where abortion is legal until the sixth week of pregnancy are Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Dakota, and South Carolina. North Carolina and Nebraska each impose restrictions after 12 weeks, Arizona’s allows abortions up until the 15th week, and Utah’s law is 18 weeks. The only exceptions to these time limits are cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother.
Immigration
Immigration came in last to American voters in a nation that’s home to one-fifth of the world’s international immigrants, equalling 51.6 million in 2024. Immigrants make up 15.6% of the nation’s population.
According to the PEW Research Center, Mexico is the country of origin for 23% of all immigrants, and India, China and the Philippines also greatly contribute to today’s immigrant population. By region, Asia accounts for 28% of immigrants and Latin America (excluding Mexico) is 27%.
The U.S. Customs and Border Protections apprehend over 1,000 people a day for suspected immigration violations, contributing to the strain placed on southern border agents. The Department of Homeland Security has implemented the Southwest Border Security and Preparedness Plan to relieve stress on the southern border from the influx of immigrants crossing from Latin American countries. The plan will also enforce harsher penalties for unlawful entry.
In 2022, 63% of the nation’s immigrants lived in just 20 major metropolitan areas with the largest being New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco. Border states however, have seen a decrease in unauthorized border crossings since 2023, lowering the number of immigrants in border towns.
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According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protections, in December 2023 there were 249,741 encounters at the border, the most ever recorded in a month, but August 2024 only saw 58,038, proving a 77% decline in border crossings. Both Mexico and the U.S. implemented policy changes to bring this shift; Mexico has made it more difficult for migrants to reach the U.S. border, and President Joe Biden signed an executive order in June making it harder for illegal immigrants to seek asylum and remain in the country.
As of 2022, 77% of all immigrants were here legally with 49% of them naturalized, 24% legal permanent residents, and 4% temporary legal residents. The other 23% of the immigrant population are unauthorized immigrants. Of those, about three million of them had temporary legal protections like Temporary Protected Status, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, Asylum, and special visas awarded to victims of criminal activities.
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