Arizona will be one of the most fiercely contested states when it comes to the 2024 presidential election, four years after President Joe Biden won the Grand Canyon State’s 11 electoral votes by just 0.3 percentage points. The state saw a multitude of election challenges from former President Donald Trump.
The Washington Examiner is following five key issues voters care about as they prepare to vote for the next president of the United States. The specific issues being tracked are social security, crime, abortion, economy, and immigration.
The issues were chosen with the help of the Associated Press issues tracker. The Washington Examiner subsequently compared five of the key issues in Google Trends on a state-by-state basis, revealing which issues are most important to voters in swing contests.
Here, you can track the importance of these various concerns to Arizona voters over a rolling 30-day period.
Crime
Concerns over crime have remained a huge concern for Arizona voters, ranking as the most searched issue in the state.
After the COVID-19 lockdown, crime rose in 2021 and 2022 but fell back down in 2023. Crime is 13% lower than it was in 2022. Nonaggravated assault, larceny, and crimes involving drugs and narcotics, as well as drug equipment, were the most common forms of crime seen throughout the state. Arrests are also up 6.29%.
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An Arizona State University study shows that despite the influx of immigrants, there was no significant difference in the relationship between violent crimes or gang activity between illegal immigrants and U.S. citizens. Approximately 9% of all arrestees in Maricopa County (population 4.6 million) were illegal immigrants.
Since statistics don’t show large numbers of crimes in regard to immigrants despite Arizona being the only border swing state, it leaves immigration to be an issue more intertwined with Social Security than anything else.
Social Security
In Arizona, Social Security is a huge concern, charting at No. 2 for voters.
There are almost 1.3 million Arizonans age 65 and up, 18% of the state’s population. The concern that Social Security reserves will no longer be fully funded by 2035 if the government does not take action to prevent it, according to the Social Security Administration, is a very pressing matter.
At a Social Security roundtable in July, Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) pitched multiple ideas for maintaining Social Security, such as cutting spending on foreign wars and eliminating Social Security for illegal immigrants. However, statistics show that immigrants contribute largely to Social Security funds.
Gosar’s Social Security conversation turned into worries that the influx of immigrants would put further strain on Social Security, worrying voters about the reliability of the government-funded retirement program. However, there is noncitizen eligibility for Social Security that immigrants can partake in if they are in a qualified category and meet the requirements.
Abortion
Abortion was the third most searched issue in the state, yet abortion, in particular, turned Arizona into a political battleground this year. It skyrocketed and became the most searched topic on Sept. 11 following the presidential debate the night before.
After the reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, the state passed a law that prevented abortions past 15 weeks and required a parent or guardian to provide written consent to the procedure for minors. A minor can pursue judicial bypass of consent, but there is still a mandatory wait time of 24 hours after the patient attends the required ultrasound and counseling appointment. The state has exceptions for the life of the mother but not for rape or incest.
In April 2024, the Arizona Supreme Court revived an abortion ban the nation hadn’t seen since 1864, but Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) signed legislation to repeal it in May, leaving the 15-week abortion law in place.
In August, it was announced that a constitutional amendment, the Arizona Abortion Access Act, will be placed on the ballot this November to protect and expand abortion rights up to fetal viability, approximately 24 weeks of gestation.
Economy
Worries over the state of the economy ranked second to last. The unemployment rate in Arizona as of November 2023 was 4.3%, placing the state 10th in the nation. The economy is growing, with a 4.9% increase in gross domestic product, equalling $510.6 billion in goods and services, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The industries that have seen the most growth over the last year are the retail industry and construction, both amounting to a 21% increase. Real estate grew 5.1% and manufacturing increased 4.3%, but wholesale trade and education fell roughly 3.5% each.
There are more successful women-owned businesses in Arizona than anywhere else in the country, and Arizonans have also seen a stark decrease in inflation rates, with August 2024 rates dropping to 2.3% in contrast to August 2022 rates seeing 13% inflation.
Immigration
Despite Tucson seeing the highest levels of immigration for the southern border this year, the issue doesn’t seem too pressing to Arizona citizens compared to other topics.
Nearly half of all Arizona immigrants are naturalized. The total population is 964,200 immigrants. In 2022, immigrants accounted for 16.2% of the labor force and 20.4% of entrepreneurs. Immigrant businesses saw a total business income of $2.2 billion, had a spending power of $28.4 billion, and paid $9.1 billion in taxes.
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The top countries of origin for Arizona immigrants are Mexico, India, Canada, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
In June, lawmakers approved a November ballot measure, the Secure the Border Act, that would make crossing the border without prior authorization, including the process of seeking asylum, a state crime. The law wouldn’t have any impact on those fleeing persecution.
