Republicans secured a trifecta in the 2024 elections, winning control of the White House, House and Senate, but that doesn’t mean Senators are going to rest on their laurels, with the groundwork already being laid for 2026.
In November 2026, there will be at least 35 Senate seats up for election, which includes a special election in Ohio for Vice President-elect J.D. Vance’s seat and another one in Florida to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who has been nominated to become secretary of state.
Republicans won back control of the Senate in 2024, picking up four seats for a 53-47 majority. Democrats will need to flip four Senate seats in 2026 to reclaim a majority.
Georgia
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is up for reelection and his seat is a major Republican target after President-elect Donald Trump was able to flip the state after it went for President Joe Biden in 2020 and with Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) that same year.
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While Ossoff doesn’t have a Republican challenger yet, he could face some formidable opponents. Many on the GOP side are hoping Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) will get into the race, as he is coming to the end of his second term in 2026 and will be unable to seek a third. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) has also indicated he is interested in a run.
The Republican Jewish Coalition is already laying the groundwork to oust Georgia’s first Jewish U.S. senator after he voted in favor of two resolutions to block the sale of U.S. weapons to Israel.
Michigan
Republicans are also feeling bullish about their chances of flipping Sen. Gary Peters’s (D-MI) seat after Trump won the state and nearly picked up a Senate seat this year.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) to fill retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) seat by the narrowest of margins.
Peters does not have any Republican challengers just yet, but he is seen as vulnerable after narrowly surviving his reelection bid in 2020 against Rep. John James (R-MI).
New Hampshire
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is up for reelection in a state that Republicans have been after in recent years.
Shaheen, who has served in the Senate for three terms after six years as governor, is a fixture of New Hampshire politics. However, she could face a formidable challenge if Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) decides to run. The outgoing governor has said he isn’t interested in running, but some Republicans hope they may be able to change his mind.
Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) had said in 2023 that he would consider a run in 2026 after losing to Shaheen in 2014.
North Carolina
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is up for reelection after two terms in the Senate. Democrats have their sights on this seat after Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the competitive race, losing by less than 2 points.
Democrats have had many disappointments in the state since Obama last carried the state in 2008. President-elect Trump won North Carolina by about 3 points and he also won in 2020 and 2016.
However, they could have a better chance if outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) jumps into the race. According to reporting from NBC News, Cooper has expressed interest in a Senate run.
Maine
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is always a top target for Democrats in a state that often leans more to the left in statewide elections. She told reporters that she intends to seek a sixth term in office.
Collins, an outspoken critic of Trump who voted to impeach him in his second trial, could ultimately face a primary challenge. However, a centrist like Collins has the strongest chance to win in a general election.
In the next Congress, Collins will be the only GOP senator out of 53 in total who represents a state that Harris won. She’s never had to run in a tough midterm environment for Republicans — her only previous midterm under a Republican president came in the 2002 cycle, which was a positive one for Republicans after then-President George W. Bush had a high approval rating following the Sept. 11 attacks.
Ohio
The state is expected to have an open seat after Vance vacates his seat when he is sworn in as Vice President. Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) will appoint a replacement, but there will be a special election in 2026.
While the state has trended more red in recent years, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) just lost his seat in Ohio this cycle and has indicated he could be interested in running again in 2026. Former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), who ran against Vance in 2022, has also indicated he could be interested.
Texas
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is running for his fifth term. Democrats have long tried to flip Texas blue but have come up unsuccessful.
Cornyn’s most interesting challenge may come from his own party. State Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has suggested he could primary Cornyn.
“To me, he’s been in Washington too long. He’s been there, what, for 14 years or so? And I can’t think of a single thing he’s accomplished for our state or even for the country,” Paxton said in a Fox News interview in 2023.
If Paxton were to successfully oust Cornyn in a primary, Democrats believe their shot of flipping the Lone Star state would greatly improve.
Iowa
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) is up for reelection, and while her seat is in a safe red state, she faces some intraparty unrest in her home state.
Ernst, a former combat veteran, is facing an enormous pressure campaign from MAGA Republicans as she weighs whether to support Trump’s pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth. There has been some speculation she could face a challenge from the right if she decides not to back Trump’s pick.
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She has also come under criticism from Republicans in the state that she has not been fully supportive of Trump and his agenda.
Ernst, a survivor of rape and domestic violence, has made fighting sexual harassment in the military a key priority from her perch on the Senate Armed Services Committee. She has largely been in line with Trump, heading up the Department of Government Efficiency caucus in the Senate next year.
