A Thursday vote on expiring Obamacare subsidies is presenting Senate Republicans with their latest unity test as Democrats seek to make the 2026 elections a referendum on affordability.
Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is offering Republicans a GOP alternative to the three-year extension Democrats will bring to the floor, and most of his members appear ready to support it in dueling votes slated for Thursday.
But Thune will be unable to escape at least some GOP opposition to the proposal, with libertarian Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) ridiculing it as “Obamacare-lite” and several others remaining noncommittal on how they will vote.
At the same time, a handful of Republicans could end up siding with Democrats on the second bill. Republicans broadly view the pandemic-era subsidies as overly generous and plagued by fraud, but centrists up for reelection next year are reluctant to be seen as doing nothing to extend them, given that millions are projected to lose coverage when the enhanced subsidies lapse on Dec. 31.
Although both measures will likely fail to muster the required 60 votes to advance, the exercise has become a messaging battle that Democrats believe gives them an upper hand. All Democrats are expected to stay united on Thursday, even as Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) pans the votes as a futile political exercise. Instead, he is advocating a one-year extension that could draw bipartisan backing.
“We’re offering a very simple proposal that would stop this catastrophe in its tracks on Jan. 1, and they are fighting amongst themselves, arguing over a set of policies that wouldn’t fix the problem,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), a member of the Democratic leadership team, said of Republicans. “We’re going to be united.”
The Democratic proposal is a simple, three-year extension free of the income limits and fraud guardrails Republicans wanted in stalled negotiations over the subsidies. The GOP legislation, led by Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Mike Crapo (R-ID), would provide up to $1,500 annually to qualifying recipients for health savings accounts.
GOP OBAMACARE PROPOSAL CUTS MEDICAID FUNDING FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS
Thune had been leaning against putting forward a competing proposal, given that it could highlight the GOP rift over Obamacare, but he ultimately changed course after a Tuesday lunch with his entire conference. The alternative, some Republicans feared, was risking the appearance of not caring about healthcare costs.
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY) offered a brief but candid reaction to Paul’s planned “no” vote, noting that he regularly bucks leadership: “It’s not a surprise, is it?”
Still, Republicans have been struggling to coalesce around a counterproposal, with rank-and-file Republicans releasing a flurry of bills this week, some of which allow for a temporary extension of the enhanced subsidies, while others end them entirely.
Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) attempted to pass his bill via unanimous consent on Wednesday afternoon, but it was rejected by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) also told the Washington Examiner he may try the same after the dueling healthcare votes fail.
Other Republicans, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), were content to leave reporters in suspense regarding how they will vote on Thursday.
Hawley confirmed he would support the GOP bill but said he was undecided on the Democratic proposal, expressing concern that providing HSA funds would not address rising out-of-pocket premiums.
“I’m in the all-of-the-above category in terms of I think we should do everything we can to bring down costs,” Hawley said.
Collins, facing a battleground reelection fight next year, would not commit to supporting the Cassidy-Crapo plan, citing unspecified negotiations on healthcare.
The voting plans of other Republicans who support a scaled-back subsidy extension, including Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Thom Tillis (R-NC), were also unclear.
Sullivan is debating whether to unveil a plan of his own to extend subsidies “for a limited period of time and with necessary reforms” or co-sponsor one of the other GOP bills, according to a spokeswoman.
Republican leadership, meanwhile, is already preparing to look past Thursday’s floor action, with Thune insisting that a subsidy deal with Democrats that includes GOP reforms could be possible even after the Dec. 31 expiration date.
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“I don’t rule it out,” Thune told reporters. “Obviously, we don’t have a lot of time to do this. But I think there are ways in which you could, where there’s a will.”
After Thursday, senators would only have one week to hammer out a compromise before lawmakers depart for the Christmas recess.
