The surprise drone strike by the Houthis against Tel Aviv took Israelis by surprise, shattering the assumption that the city was an “impenetrable fortress.”
Israel’s second city is guarded by a once-thought-impregnable shield of air and missile defense systems, which has shielded it from every missile attack fired against it during the war in Gaza. In a press call with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, experts warned that the breach of the shield by a Houthi drone will have a psychological impact on Israelis.
“This is the first drone to make it into Tel Aviv, as far as we understand, since this war began, so nearly nine months where Tel Aviv has been an impenetrable fortress,” Jonathan Schanzer, Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior vice president of research, said. “Now that appears to have changed. That is a significant psychological thing for the Israelis, who, I think, have been operating under the assumption that Tel Aviv was off limits, or that it would not be hit.”
“That has changed, obviously, and so I think Israelis are grappling with that, and what it means. It is certainly, I think, there is some psychological value to this for the Houthis, who have obviously claimed responsibility,” he added.
The wider significance of the attack, Schanzer said, was a signal that the war in Gaza is just one front of a much wider war, conducted mainly by Iran against Israel.
Israel has signaled in the past month that the focus of the war is beginning to shift from Gaza to the northern front against Hezbollah in Lebanon. This will be helped along by the estimate that Hamas seems to be “on the verge of defeat.”
As for if and when an invasion of Lebanon will happen, FDD senior fellow David Daoud warned against playing “prophet,” but estimated that such an invasion wouldn’t take place for at least a month.
“I think the Israelis need to have a refractory period for their army restock, perhaps, given the… expected destructive … impact of this war on Israel’s home front, harden critical infrastructure against Hezbollah weapons, restock weapons from the United States, perhaps allow the international temperature that has risen against Israel over the Gaza war to die down a little bit,” he said in an answer to a question from the Washington Examiner. “So it could take some time for these things to be put into place, and also laying down plans for foreign invasion and contingency plans for what happens.”
A war against Hezbollah, he warned, was highly unlikely to remain confined to the militant group’s stronghold in southern Lebanon and could even expand beyond Lebanon itself.
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“Even if your intention is to enter into South Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah to the extent possible there, it’s not guaranteed that this will remain confined to South Lebanon,” Daoud said. “Let’s not forget that Hezbollah has infrastructure in Lebanon as deep as northern Lebanon, in the Bekaa Valley, and they’ve been entrenching in Syria for several years now, which could very well act as a strategic depth for Hezbollah.”
“So how much … contingency plans do you have to weigh for that, what’re the weapons you’re going to need, what’re the number of forces that you’re going to need, for that all these things … [to] be taken into consideration, and they need time,” he added.
