Donald Trump’s Immigration Judges Boost Deportation Numbers

According to TRAC Reports Inc, “Judge Dornell is recorded as deciding 921 asylum claims on their merits. Of these, she granted 456 … and denied 464.”

The new judges are picked by Trump’s attorney general and cannot be blocked by hostile Democrats. So their gradual arrival is likely to have a dramatic effect as the number of pro-migrant judges decline.

The judges have very different track records, in part because immigration law is complex, the migrants’ pleas are often heartrending, and the judges have their human preferences. For example, Florida-based Judge Denise Slavin was appointed by President Bill Clinton, and she approved 284 pleas and denied only 26, according to a 2011 analysis by TRAC Reports Inc. In contrast, Judge Kevin Chapman was appointed by President George W. Bush and granted only 32 pleas while denying 192, according to TRAC.

The reductions in 2017, 2018, and 2019 have been modest. In 2018, migrants won 33 percent of the decisions but only 29 percent in 2019, according to an analysis by the immigration law firm of Amoachi & Johnson.

The changes have even impacted the most pro-migration areas, such as New York. Gothamist.com reported December 27:

But the shift here is dramatic. Just four years ago, the research group TRAC found New York judges denied just 16 percent of asylum seekers. That figure has been rising since Trump took office. But the average denial rate for a New York judge shot up to 46 percent in fiscal year 2019, according to the latest data, from 32 percent in the previous year.

But the gradual replacement of migrant-friendly judges by pro-American judges is likely to skyrocket rejection rates for migrants, according to a TRAC forecast of court decisions. In fiscal 2020, which started October 1, 2019, the judges are likely to order the deportation of 290,000 migrants, TRAC predicts:

The number is far higher than the 80,000 deportation orders in 2016 — but it is also a very small share of the 12-plus million illegals living in the United States. Moreover, ICE will have to track down and deport most of the migrants amid massive resistance by pro-migration advocacy and business groups.

Even as the rejection rate rises, more migrants are getting relief because the courts are processing far more cases. This means that roughly 38,000 migrants are likely to win their cases in 2020 amid the predicted flood of 290,000 expected rejections, the one million backlog of cases, and the illegal population of approximately 12 million illegals.

Trump’s reinvigoration of the immigration judiciary has prompted sharp criticism from Democrats and their allies among immigration lawyers. For example, Democrats have drafted a bill that would allow the Senate to block Trump’s nominations.

“Being an IJ has always been a high-pressure job,” said Dan Cadman, a former immigration official who now works with the Center for  Immigration Studies. He continued: