Does anyone want to win this race? Talarico and Paxton stumble to finish line in Texas Senate contest

One candidate abruptly disappeared from the campaign trail for more than a week. The other seemingly can’t stop being recorded or filmed in embarrassing situations.

Having already spent more than $500 million in combined ads, the Texas Senate race is one of the messiest battlegrounds of the cycle for far more reasons than just the bitter rivalry between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The pair is stumbling into the final weeks of the contentious contest after they both suffered from self-inflicted scandals that threaten to blunt their turnout efforts or handicap their ability to sway on-the-fence voters as Texans head to the polls next week for early voting.

Talarico reemerged in public Friday for the first time since a Sept. 28 New York City fundraiser with actor Robert De Niro. It was a 10-day absence that fueled online conspiracies from conservative influencers about his whereabouts. He and his campaign said it was simply from the flu and have vehemently denied anything more nefarious.

Meanwhile, Paxton, who ousted Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the primary, has been unable to shake a series of leaked audio clips from a Sept. 24 fundraiser in Washington. The clips were reported by various media outlets over the course of several weeks and have revealed Paxton complaining to national party leaders in Washington about Cornyn’s lack of support, that the GOP’s midterm convention hurt him politically, and that he lacks “control” over his campaign.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate and Texas state Rep. James Talarico speaks at a food drive at the Frederick Douglass Human Services and Justice Center on Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

The latest leak came Monday, this time in video format, when the Wall Street Journal reported on a video from New Year’s 2025 before his Senate campaign launch showing Paxton watching fireworks from a high-rise balcony in Dubai with two men wanted in the U.S. on federal healthcare fraud charges and his girlfriend. Paxton’s divorce from his wife is still pending, and one of the fugitives was a major Paxton donor. Talarico responded in a statement, saying: “A party with multiple fugitives and Ken Paxton is still the sketchiest guy in the room.”

Lucky for Talarico and Paxton, their actions may wind up canceling each other out.

“It’s clouding things a bit for voters. But it won’t change, necessarily, their minds,” said veteran pollster Clifford Young, a visiting professor of political science at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service. “It’s really about motivating the base.”

The opposition research being dumped on the pair is at supercharged levels. The GOP-held seat, after all, could help determine whether Republicans maintain Senate control. No Democrat has won a statewide office in the Lone Star State since 1994. Recent polls suggest Talarico holds a slight advantage but within the margin of error. In the RealClearPolitics national average, Talarico leads Paxton by 2.7 points.

Paxton entered his bid for Senate with prior political baggage that included an indictment, impeachment, and other investigations. And Talarico has been panned by Republicans for policy flip-flops to make a broader appeal to more centrist Texans.

“If Talarico wins, it won’t be because he’s the next George W. Bush, ushering in a Texas political realignment,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox said. “It will be because Trump saddled Republicans in the Lone Star State with a corrupt, lazy standard-bearer.”

Texas Attorney General and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton smiles as Vice President JD Vance speaks during a campaign rally at Tyler Pounds Regional Airport in Tyler, Texas, on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026. (Saul Loeb/Pool Photo via AP, File)

Talarico’s sudden and extended disappearance over what he revealed was from the flu marked a bizarre episode for a candidate who has otherwise run a largely disciplined campaign with minimal such missteps, despite some questionable past comments resurfacing that have proved ample ammunition for Republicans. Trump was among those to stir rumors about his absence amid calls for him to provide proof-of-life photos or videos. The scrutiny and conspiracies were reminiscent of those levied this year against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) when he was out of the public eye for three months following a fall in June and his subsequent hospitalization.

The Talarico campaign has since provided select media outlets with what were reported as security camera images showing Talarico at his home from Oct. 1 to Oct. 8 — on the condition that they not be published for security reasons. The Washington Examiner could not independently verify the photos after the campaign declined to provide them for review.

Talarico himself laughed off accusations from certain pockets of the right-wing influencer sphere that he had spent time at an Ohio mental health facility. “I’ve never even been to Ohio,” he said on X, with a crying laughter emoji.

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Meanwhile, Trump is on a midterm blitz that will include a stop in Texas to rally for Paxton. Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Paxton on Tuesday in the state, where he conceded the GOP nominee “is obviously in a tight race.”

“I know from personal history, when a lot of money comes against you, that can have an effect, even in a red state,” Vance told reporters.

Lauren Green and Hailey Bullis contributed to this report.

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