Democrats ditch the ‘Valleycrat’ playbook in bid to topple California GOP congressman

Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) has spent years defying political gravity.

The Republican incumbent in California’s 22nd Congressional District has survived multiple Democratic attempts to unseat him, won back his seat after the 2018 blue wave, and remains one of the few House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump and still held on to office.

Now Democrats are preparing another challenge in what is expected to be one of the most competitive House races in the country. It’s a crucial piece of House Democrats’ electoral puzzle that is their bid to net at least three seats and win the majority for the first time since losing it in the 2022 cycle.

But this time, they are betting on a different electoral formula in the Central Valley district, which includes a swath of Bakersfield, one of the agricultural region’s biggest cities with nearly 423,000 people. For years, Democrats recruited centrist “Valleycrat” candidates such as Rudy Salas and Jasmeet Bains, members of the state Assembly or former Sacramento lawmakers. Wagering that centrists with local roots could win over independents and crossover Republican voters in the Central Valley. That strategy repeatedly failed against Valadao despite significant Democratic investment.

A different kind of Democrat

Their new nominee, Randy Villegas, is offering a starkly different approach. The political science professor at the College of the Sequoias and school board trustee has run as an anti-establishment candidate, arguing that both parties have failed working-class voters while positioning himself against corporate and political interests.

Backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and California’s Working Families Party, Villegas emerged from a bruising all-party primary. Voters largely brushed aside more than $2 million in outside spending aimed at defeating him, from groups spanning the ideological spectrum, including Democratic centrists, pro-Israel organizations, and Republican-aligned interests.

From left: Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) and Randy Villegas. (Washington Examiner graphic; AP / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

“Villegas makes a different argument than previous Democratic candidates,” California strategist Matt Klink told the Washington Examiner. “He’s trying to tap into frustration with both parties rather than simply running as the alternative to a Republican incumbent. An anti-establishment message can be powerful in a district where voters feel ignored. The challenge is convincing voters that you’re truly an outsider and not just another politician.”

Villegas, who earned a Ph.D. in politics from the University of California, Santa Cruz, would, if he wins, be among a group of about two dozen lawmakers in Washington, D.C., with a doctoral degree. Yet Villegas would join a growing group of far-left House Democrats, or soon-to-be lawmakers, getting elected in the 2026 cycle. In the June 23 New York Democratic primaries, all three of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsed candidates for Congress were victorious, marking a massive win for the Left and a major blow for establishment Democrats.

New district blues

Complicating matters for Valadao is the fact that he is running in a dramatically altered district.

He was one of five California Republican congressmen whose districts were redrawn under Proposition 50, the redistricting measure championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and state Democrats. Voters approved the changes to House maps that could expand Democrats’ already commanding 43-9 advantage in California’s congressional delegation to as much as 48-4.

The new boundaries significantly altered District 22. Previously, the district spanned portions of Kings, Tulare, Fresno, and Kern counties. Under the new map, parts of western Fresno, Madera, and eastern Bakersfield were added, creating a district many Democrats believe is more favorable to their party.

Valadao, 49, has blasted the mid-decade redistricting effort as a partisan power grab and accused Newsom of prioritizing politics over governing.

“Instead of doing his job as a governor and actually functioning as an adult, he’s chosen political fights,” Valadao told the Washington Examiner.

Yet political observers have repeatedly underestimated Valadao before.

“Valadao has survived political environments that are extremely difficult for him,” Klink said. “California political observers have learned not to underestimate him or count him out.”

Others believe this year may finally be different.

“Politically speaking, David Valadao has been the proverbial cat with nine lives,” veteran Democratic strategist Garry South told the Washington Examiner. “This year, he may find he has used them all up.”

South pointed to the district’s demographics, the primary results, and broader political headwinds facing Republicans.

“The newly redrawn CD 22 is 73% Latino, and his run-off opponent, Randy Villegas, is obviously Latino,” South said. “Even more ominous, Valadao, as the incumbent, received only 40.7% in the primary, while the two Democrats split more than 59% of the vote. Also, Valadao is running in a midterm election in which the party in power in Washington almost always loses seats, and Trump has a 29% approval rating in California. It looks like the perfect storm for Valadao that could blow away his congressional career.”

A party divided

The fight among Democrats in the jungle primary itself generated controversy.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had previously indicated it would remain neutral in the contest, where Villegas and state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains were locked in a battle for the second runoff spot behind Valadao. But before the primary, the DCCC added Bains to its Red to Blue program, which provides fundraising and organizational support to candidates in competitive House races.

The move angered some local Democratic leaders who argued national party officials had abandoned their neutrality pledge.

After Villegas, 31, emerged victorious, however, the committee quickly rallied behind him.

“Randy is a people-first leader capable of energizing voters and winning this seat,” DCCC Chairwoman Suzan DelBene (WA) said in a statement. “We are all in to elect him and flip this seat.”

Villegas also secured endorsements from Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the two-time House speaker who is retiring after the Nov. 3 elections.

Still, defeating Valadao has proven easier said than done.

The Valley versus Washington

Valadao, who comes from a dairy farming family and relates to the economic struggles facing Central Valley residents, has long cultivated an image as an independent-minded representative focused on local concerns rather than national partisan battles.

“Throughout my time in Congress, I’ve worked to put my district first regardless of party and deliver real results for the communities I represent,” Valadao told the Washington Examiner. “I hope voters will once again support that independent, bipartisan approach in November so I can continue fighting for the issues that matter most to the Central Valley.”

Jeff Le, a former deputy Cabinet secretary to former Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown, said that independence may be Valadao’s best path to survival.

“Rep. Valadao has had to distance himself from the president,” Le told the Washington Examiner. “According to conservative Heritage Action, he has voted just 50% of the time with the president’s agenda this session, far lower than the 85% score that Republican members of Congress average. He has been vocal against aspects of tariffs, Iran, and has a pulse on the Medicaid cuts and their impact on his district, which disproportionately depends on the program.”

Still, Le questioned whether even that may be enough.

“The president’s historically low numbers and the voter profile shift from Prop. 50 might be too much for Rep. Valadao to overcome in an average D+5 generic ballot year,” he said. “If he can overcome the national mood, it’ll be because of his continued emphasis on independence and specific Valley priorities and constituencies.”

Jeff Burton, a former senior National Republican Congressional Committee official and cofounding partner at Maven Advocacy, argued Democrats are misreading the race by focusing on candidate ideology.

“Democrats have tried moderates, local elected officials, and now a Bernie Sanders-endorsed Democratic socialist,” Burton said. “The problem isn’t the Democratic candidate. The problem for Democrats is that David Valadao has built a durable coalition of farmers, dyed-in-the-wool Republicans, and non-socialist Democrats that consistently transcends party labels.”

Burton cited the congressman’s close association with his birthplace of Hanford, a San Joaquin Valley region of the greater Central Valley that’s home to about 58,000 people. Surrounded by productive agricultural lands, its robust food processing industry is a major employer in town and for residents of surrounding communities.

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“David Valadao is Hanford. He is the Central Valley,” Burton said. “D.C. hasn’t changed him. He’s truly one of them, and the voters know it.”

Whether that coalition can withstand a dramatically redrawn district and another difficult political environment may determine not only Valadao’s future, but whether Democrats have finally found the formula to defeat one of the most resilient Republicans in the country.

Barnini Chakraborty (@Barnini) is a senior political reporter at the Washington Examiner.

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