It’s impossible to know just how tonight’s debate will go, but polling suggests the pressure is on Kamala Harris.
Almost everyone on the planet knows what they think about Donald Trump, love him or loathe him. But the vice president, who has granted exactly one interview (speaking for 16 minutes) and generally avoids the press, hasn’t debated in four years.
In a New York Times/Siena College survey, 28% said they needed to know more about Kamala; only 9% felt that way about Trump. (Who are these 9%??)
Some warning signs: More than 60% of likely voters want a major change from Joe Biden, but just 25% said Kamala represented that change, while 53% said Trump did. Not a great sign in what is obviously a change election.
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What’s more, while roughly a third of Trump voters say he’s too far to the right, nearly half say the VP is too far to the left.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Trump will try to hang the Biden record around his opponent’s neck – a tricky situation since any veep isn’t in charge. And Kamala will use her prosecutorial skills not just to debate her opponent but to cite low moments from his four years in office – I’d wager Jan. 6 will come up – as well as pushing her top issue, abortion, where Trump has been softening his stance in a confusing manner.
Overall, the Times found Trump leading Harris 48 to 47% nationally, quickly noting that’s within the 3-point margin of error. And the average of battleground state polls also shows 1- or 2-point leads for either candidate, which is a virtual tie (so the pundits need to stop saying Trump or Harris is “leading” in this or that state, when they know better).
It turns out that Kamala had no second act. Or that she was riding so high that she got virtually no bump from the Democratic convention. After all, the VP had a solid month of the most gushing coverage I’ve ever seen for her joy-filled and vibes-based campaign. Well, maybe Obama in 2008, but even he drew some criticism.
Was it a sugar high? Maybe. But the situation has her supporters pretty nervous. Yet all this will be forgotten if she does well in the ABC debate, with Trump working the refs by calling it the “meanest” network.
Here is one game that both sides are playing. Since both have flip-flopped as they move toward the middle, they are taking old or outdated positions and pretending they are current stances.
This is a particular problem for Kamala, since she has walked away from her left-wing rhetoric of 2019, when she didn’t make it to Iowa. She said she was against fracking, for decriminalizing the border and for abolishing private health insurance.
And for the most part, she has done this without explanation, other than having anonymous aides say, oh, she doesn’t believe that anymore.
That has enabled Trump to say that despite her reversal, she will ban fracking, a huge issue in Pennsylvania, after all.
This is where doing more interviews might have helped her, and I hope she’ll do more after the debate.
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On the other side, with Trump opposing Florida’s six-week abortion ban, endorsing free IVF treatments and vowing not to sign a national abortion ban, Harris insists he will sign such a ban – and noting that he bragged about his three justices overturning Roe. This, in turn, has sparked a backlash among some pro-life groups.
Corey Lewandowski told me on “Media Buzz” that Harris is running on abortion because it’s the only issue that favors Democrats, who he argued have the extreme position by allowing the procedure through the ninth month.
In similar fashion, Kamala insists that Trump will carry out the Heritage plan Project 2025, despite the fact that he has repeatedly disavowed it and called parts of it abysmal.
For voters who don’t follow the campaign as incessantly as journalists and politicos, this may all seem rather confusing. But ultimately the debate, and the election, won’t turn on policy.
Trump has a four-year term in the White House to praise or pick apart. Kamala has to make viewers on all the networks that will simulcast the ABC debate comfortable with her both as a likable person and a potential commander-in-chief.
My own gut feeling is that this will be the only debate between the two. If one of them starts agitating for more debates later on, that will be the candidate who feels like he or she needs a do-over.
