Incumbent congressional Republicans face relatively slim cash-on-hand leads and a national fundraising disadvantage as the new year approaches, campaign finance records show.
Of the 17 House races the Cook Political Report rates as “toss-ups,” a category where the two parties have roughly even odds of victory, Republicans have a cash-on-hand advantage in 12. These 12 races, however, represent all the elections where Republicans are defending toss-up seats; the remaining five hyper-competitive races feature Democratic incumbents who have a cash advantage over their best-funded GOP challenger.
Incumbents have historically enjoyed an advantage in winning reelection, owing to their higher name recognition and often superior financial situations. By virtue of needing to defend a greater number of vulnerable seats, however, Republicans are more likely to see a net loss in the House than their Democratic counterparts. The average gap between Republican incumbents and their best-funded challengers, however, is slightly wider than that of the Democrats and their wealthiest opponents. And the party of the president tends to suffer during midterm elections, regardless of financial factors.
Further complicating matters for House Republicans is that the political committee intended to help the GOP defend its vulnerable members and flip Democratic seats in toss-up districts is lagging behind its Democratic equivalent in fundraising. As of the end of October, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $46.8 million in cash on hand, compared to the National Republican Congressional Committee, which had $45.7 million in reserves.
Closing this gap could prove difficult, as donors may be preoccupied with high-profile Senate races in Georgia and Michigan. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) had $21.4 million in the bank at the end of October, more than any of the Republicans currently running in the state’s primary, chief among them being Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) with his $3.9 million in cash. The race in Michigan is closer in terms of fundraising, with Democratic front-runner Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) holding $2.6 million, trailing closely behind former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), who has $2.7 million in funds.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, meanwhile, lags behind its Democratic counterpart with $14.9 million in cash on hand compared to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s $18.4 million.
While it’s too soon to tell how much cash high-profile Senate races will consume in 2026, Georgia’s 2022 midterm Senate election cost nearly half a billion dollars in donor funds.
In the House, the average gap between vulnerable Republican incumbents and their best-funded Democratic opponent was just over $1.1 million at the end of October, according to the most recent available campaign finance records. Vulnerable Democrats, meanwhile, had an average lead of roughly $950,000.
This GOP advantage, however, could be moderated by a number of factors. For one, former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) has launched a comeback bid against vulnerable Rep. Jennifer Kiggans (R-VA). Prior to Luria’s announcement, Kiggans lacked a serious challenger. Now she faces an opponent with a track record of victory in her district.
National liberal groups, historically better funded than their conservative counterparts, are also gearing up big to flip the House. Save America Movement, an organization founded by Lincoln Project co-founder Steve Schmidt, has announced that it wants to spend $100 million taking down vulnerable Republicans in 2026. Democracy Alliance, a network of uber-wealthy liberal donors that has steered billions to left-of-center causes since its founding in 2004, has been plotting ways to unseat Republicans since the party retook control of the House in 2024.
It’s not all good news for Democrats in swing districts, however.
There is speculation that former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) may run to replace Rep. Laura Gillen (D-NY), who defeated him in the race to represent New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024, possibly providing Republicans with a high-quality recruit in a top-tier race. D’Esposito, whom President Donald Trump has nominated to serve as the Labor Department’s inspector general, recently declined to tell a Senate confirmation panel whether he would run for Congress in 2026, fueling speculation.
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Campaign finance data aside, experts and prediction markets point toward a Democratic victory in 2026.
A model constructed by political science professors Charles Tien and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, using presidential approval rates and disposable income levels to predict the results of the midterm elections, forecasts that Republicans will lose 28 seats and control of the House of Representatives come November 2026. Individuals betting on the election using the platform Kalshi favor Democrats taking the chamber by a margin of 74% to 26% as of mid-December.
