For the first time in more than a decade, Larry Hogan presents a minimal threat to Democrats.
His last day as Maryland governor was more than 2.5 years ago, and he isn’t a political candidate. Hogan is unlikely to mount a challenge to Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), according to several sources.
Still, the former two-term Republican governor and failed 2024 Senate nominee remains the focus of much criticism from Maryland Democrats and Moore, who continue to use Hogan’s name recognition and longtime stature in GOP state politics to energize the base and preempt a gubernatorial bid they’re convinced is on the horizon.
“Maryland Democrats will always be committed to ensuring that the old governor stays in retirement,” the Maryland Democratic Party said in a statement. “But, regardless of whether he runs, he deserves to be held accountable for his record of stalling Maryland’s economy, letting crime run rampant, and not directly addressing the structural deficit forecasted under his watch.”
Hogan is not seriously considering a challenge to Moore, according to three sources familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity. The filing deadline for the primaries is not until Feb. 24. Hogan launched his 2024 Senate campaign with a last-minute surprise entry that Democrats fret could happen again to take on Moore, who recently said he would forgo a 2028 presidential bid to seek reelection.
“He hasn’t done anything to organize for such a campaign,” said a source familiar with Hogan’s thinking. “Democrats have an ongoing obsession with Governor Hogan. Even if he doesn’t run, I think that will continue. It’s always been like that.”
In news releases, social media posts, press interviews, op-eds, and in public appearances, state Democrats regularly invoke Hogan’s name, including Moore blaming him for the state’s current fiscal struggles.
Another source referred to Hogan as “the only game in town” for Democrats.
“They’re so obsessed, they’ve built this super popular, noncontroversial figure into some kind of boogeyman in their minds,” they said. “It’s delusional, and it’s weird. And at a certain point, you start to feel kind of bad for them.”
In some of his most recent comments regarding Hogan, made this week at an annual crab and clam political event, Moore downplayed the potential political threat from him and other possible GOP challengers “because they’re all saying the same things when it comes to lifting up the people of Maryland and defending the people of Maryland, which is absolutely nothing,” according to Maryland Matters.
Hogan’s absence from the event, which he attended in past years as a candidate or governor, was spun by the Maryland Democratic Party as though he were a declared candidate, ignoring voters. Hogan did not plan to attend, per sources familiar.
“Just like when he was governor, Hogan is only showing up when it’s easy for him,” state party Executive Director Karen Darkes said in a release. “Governor Moore is building a statewide bipartisan coalition that the old governor just isn’t going to be able to answer.”
State Democratic lawmakers and party officials have demanded that Hogan denounce an anonymous anti-Moore group, No Moore. The group started as a social media account posting AI-generated videos bashing the governor, but recently shifted into an official fundraising entity registered with the Federal Election Commission.
State Democrats have condemned some of the content as racist and alleged it’s tied to Hogan or his supporters. Hogan has no involvement, according to several sources and the group, which said in an anonymous statement that they’re a “grassroots movement… powered by everyday Marylanders who can’t afford Moore’s failures.” They added that “accusations of ‘racism’ are egregious.” The state party filed an election law complaint against No Moore earlier this year, drawing scorn from a First Amendment organization.
In contrast, Hogan has said little publicly since losing last November to now-Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), despite his long-standing disdain for President Donald Trump. He told the Washington Examiner last December that he was less inclined to make a return to political office but declined to “slam the door” on the possibility.
But a social media post from Hogan last month only fueled further speculation that the centrist anti-Trump Republican had a shadow campaign in the works.
Hogan, seen as the most viable GOP prospect who could win a statewide race in deep blue Maryland, posted pictures of his old Senate campaign bus to ask followers whether he should sell it or “rewrap it and get back out on the road again?” The post was made in jest to poke fun at Democrats for making him the frequent subject of their criticism, according to sources.
Around the same time last month, a new poll from Democratic-aligned firms showed Moore’s job approval had tumbled 13 percentage points since the beginning of the year to 50%. Hogan responded by posting a separate survey from May conducted by a firm he used during his Senate campaign that showed him with a 76% approval rating.
“Anybody who wants to try: come on,” Moore said at the time of a potential Hogan challenge.
Republican state Sen. Stephen Hershey is exploring a gubernatorial run but is refraining from an official bid until Hogan makes a public, definitive determination. Baltimore businessman and former longtime Democrat Ed Hale is running as a Republican, and GOP state House Leader Jason Hershey is weighing a campaign. Former Senate candidate John Myrick and firearms instructor Carl Brunner have officially filed.
Most of the fixation on Hogan has originated from state lawmakers and party officials. But Moore has also had his fair share of focus on Hogan, especially contrasting his time on the job to that of his predecessor.
Moore has blamed Maryland’s worsening fiscal status in recent years on Hogan’s prior mismanagement.
Moore has credited the $5.5 billion budget surplus the state had when Hogan left office to one-time pandemic-era money from the federal government and said the state was forced to make tough decisions with spending cuts and increases on state fees and certain taxes to avoid a $3 billion “underlying structural deficit.” Hogan and former state officials have blamed big spending by Moore and Democrats for the state’s financial status.
LARRY HOGAN WEIGHS HIS NEXT STEPS IN THE AGE OF TRUMP
Richard Vatz, a professor emeritus of political persuasion at Maryland’s Towson University, sees the rhetoric against Hogan as only “effective to those who are die-hard Moore fans.”
“If [Hogan] doesn’t run, what would he do?” Vatz said in an interview. “If he does run and loses, then he has a legacy of losing both the Senate and governorship. He really becomes a nothing.”
