The Black evangelical, Mormon, and Muslim voting blocks aren’t traditionally top concerns for presidential campaigns, but religious groups’ loss of enthusiasm for President Joe Biden in swing states could deal a blow to Democrats this November.
The Harvard-run Cooperative Election Study shows the Biden campaign might have cause for worry about the president’s loss of popularity in some voting blocks across swing states from 2021 to 2023, according to a report from the Salt Lake Tribune.
Arizona is home to a large Mormon population, while a significant number of Muslims reside in Michigan. Both religious communities’ support for Biden is on the decline, a trend that could prove critical in the swing states.
In 2023, one in five Latter Day Saints members approved of Biden, down from nearly a third of support in 2021, according to the study. The decline spells trouble for Biden in Arizona, where nearly half a million Mormons reside.
The president’s popularity has dropped even more with Muslim voters, where Biden has experienced a 12% drop in support since 2021. Nearly a quarter of a million Muslims call Michigan home, the most of any state, making the decline an important one.
Muslim activists attribute part of their community’s decline of support for Biden to his position on the war in Gaza. Satin Tashnizi, executive director of Emerald Project, a nonprofit organization that supports empowering young Muslims, told the outlet the Muslim community feels “incredibly betrayed” by the administration’s support for the “genocide of Palestinians.”
“[As a candidate,] Biden expressed a lot of support for the Muslim community and talked about how Trump’s Islamophobic policies were unacceptable,” Tashnizi remembered. “It’s now crystal clear that there’s an inherent lack of value for Palestinian life.”
Allies of former President Donald Trump have jumped to take advantage of the division within the Democratic Party. Last month, the Associated Press reported powerful Arab American and Trump ally Massad Boulos is ramping up outreach to Muslims in Michigan. Boulos’s son married Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany, in 2022.
The businessman believes Trump can make inroads with the Muslim community by capitalizing on fractures in the Democratic base over the war in Gaza. Boulos has aligned himself with the group Arab Americans for Trump.
In May, he appeared at an event the group held in Michigan attended by 40 Arab American activists. The following month, Boulos attended a fundraising event in the state, along with House Speaker Mike Johnson and 50 Arab Americans.
Meanwhile, the president has experienced a 9-point drop in support from African American Protestants, a voting block widely deemed crucial to Biden’s 2020 win.
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Research from the Brookings Institution shows some black evangelicals are increasingly discontent with the Democratic Party’s stance on moral matters such as gay marriage.
“There has been a double-digit increase in the percentage of African Americans who claim to be political “conservatives,” the Brooking Institution’s report adds.
